3 ms·

You completely overlooked why it was 65. As I explained to your other comment: "Yeah, in 1950 you could die from polio. Half the male population smoked. No se

You completely overlooked why it was 65. As I explained to your other comment: "Yeah, in 1950 you could die from polio. Half the male population smoked. No seatbelts in cars, ... No treatments for cancer, heart disease... There were a lot of factors. "

dragonwriter 9y ago
Why it was 65 doesn't really matter; if you are going to use life expectancy at birth to gauge whether a death is premature, the only sane figure is life expectancy at the birth of the person in question, not life expectancy at birth for people of the same gender in the year they died. (Unless they died the same year they were born, which is uncontroversially premature.) (It also doesn't make sense to use life expectancy at @current-age in the year they died, at least if you are trying to portray “premature” death as something other than a near universal norm.)
- melling 9y ago
  "if you are going to use life expectancy at birth ..." Who said you should use this as a gauge? That included lots of coal miners who were dying of black lung, etc. One value isn't a very good indicator. By state and race varies greatly, for example. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_life_expectancy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_life_ex... The current life expectancy of an Asian American in California is 86 years old.
  - dragonwriter 9y ago
    > Who said you should use this as a gauge? Implicitly, all the people in this thread—including you—pointing to the current US male life expectancy at birth. I just say that if you are going to use life expectancy at birth, at least use one applicable to the birth of the person in question.
    - melling 9y ago
      Yeah, as I already explained twice why the life expectancy at birth in 1950, would not apply. That number includes a lot of premature deaths that no longer apply. Ideally, you’d apply a conditional probability. https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/768215/conditional-probability-and-life-expectancy https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/768215/conditional-... If you go to the Social Security site, for example, you can calculate your life expectancy. https://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/longevity.cgi https://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/longevity.cgi For a male born on Dec 1, 1952, your current life expectancy is 84 years old.

dragonwriter 9y ago

Why it was 65 doesn't really matter; if you are going to use life expectancy at birth to gauge whether a death is premature, the only sane figure is life expectancy at the birth of the person in question, not life expectancy at birth for people of the same gender in the year they died. (Unless they died the same year they were born, which is uncontroversially premature.) (It also doesn't make sense to use life expectancy at @current-age in the year they died, at least if you are trying to portray “premature” death as something other than a near universal norm.)

melling 9y ago
"if you are going to use life expectancy at birth ..." Who said you should use this as a gauge? That included lots of coal miners who were dying of black lung, etc. One value isn't a very good indicator. By state and race varies greatly, for example. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_life_expectancy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_life_ex... The current life expectancy of an Asian American in California is 86 years old.
- dragonwriter 9y ago
  > Who said you should use this as a gauge? Implicitly, all the people in this thread—including you—pointing to the current US male life expectancy at birth. I just say that if you are going to use life expectancy at birth, at least use one applicable to the birth of the person in question.
  - melling 9y ago
    Yeah, as I already explained twice why the life expectancy at birth in 1950, would not apply. That number includes a lot of premature deaths that no longer apply. Ideally, you’d apply a conditional probability. https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/768215/conditional-probability-and-life-expectancy https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/768215/conditional-... If you go to the Social Security site, for example, you can calculate your life expectancy. https://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/longevity.cgi https://www.ssa.gov/cgi-bin/longevity.cgi For a male born on Dec 1, 1952, your current life expectancy is 84 years old.