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"Still" seems a bit disingenuous when considering the current trajectory IPv6 adoption is on. [0] Yah it's happening slowly, but it does seem to be pushing ahea

"Still" seems a bit disingenuous when considering the current trajectory IPv6 adoption is on. [0] Yah it's happening slowly, but it does seem to be pushing ahead. [0] https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html

pfranz 9y ago
How is that disingenuous? I don't think it matters what the curve looks like when it spans 10 years and ends up at 20%. There were implementations released 10 years previous to the graph's start. I wasn't implying it would never happen, just that even for something that's inevitable like IPv6, adoption is glacial.
- morsch 9y ago
  I think disingenuous is the wrong word; but the curve does matter: 20% in 10 years indicates 100% in 50 years if the curve's a line, but it's not. I dove into the world of curve fitting (wee!) and my prediction[1] for 95% IPv6 adoption is around the year 2025: https://imgur.com/a/LyBJn https://imgur.com/a/LyBJn (fitted to the logistic curve[2], x=0 is basically 2010, y is percent adoption) [1] Which you should completely trust because I've been doing this for all of 20 minutes! [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function#In_economics_and_sociology:_diffusion_of_innovations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function#In_economics...
  - pfranz 9y ago
    Thanks for taking the time to do that! Lets say 20% adoption means we're 40% of the way through the transition. The slope for IPv6 looks better and better every day, but overall it's not a great adoption story for tech that inevitably has to happen. (not to discourage or minimize the all the hard work done in getting IPv6 this far)
JBiserkov 9y ago
Offtopic, but did you notice the 3-4% spikes on Saturdays? And the dips on workdays. I assume workplaces have a lower adoption rate due to enterprise inertia. Or is there another explanation?
- pfranz 9y ago
  You're absolutely right. I've read in other articles that IPv6 jumps up on weekends. IPv6 adoption is incredibly skewed. It's much higher in things like cellular networks and in developing countries. I think the weekend jump is attributed to cellphones (not sure if I'm connecting the dots or if that's what the consensus is).
hinkley 9y ago
That graph has a couple doglegs that make it look exponential. The last dogleg was January 2015. And since then it’s been linear (with a little stall this month) at about 5% of the Internet converting per year. That’s another 15 years to convert the rest, unless there’s a new dog leg up. Also percentages don’t work the way humans think they do. Especially when the number of devices is constantly climbing. That may just indicate that some fraction of new hardware is ipv6 but little old hardware is being updated. We may well have ~2 billion machines on ipv4 pretty much indefinitely, slowly being diluted by addition of new hardware.
- pfranz 9y ago
  Agreed. I say IPv6 is inevitable, but it's not like the IPv4 addresses will expire. The economics going forward will be interesting. I've seen some low-end VPSes charge a lower rate for machines that are IPv6-only.
  - mavendependency 9y ago
    Cloudflare enabled domains can tunnel ipv6-only hosts for ipv4 clients.

pfranz 9y ago

How is that disingenuous? I don't think it matters what the curve looks like when it spans 10 years and ends up at 20%. There were implementations released 10 years previous to the graph's start. I wasn't implying it would never happen, just that even for something that's inevitable like IPv6, adoption is glacial.

morsch 9y ago
I think disingenuous is the wrong word; but the curve does matter: 20% in 10 years indicates 100% in 50 years if the curve's a line, but it's not. I dove into the world of curve fitting (wee!) and my prediction[1] for 95% IPv6 adoption is around the year 2025: https://imgur.com/a/LyBJn https://imgur.com/a/LyBJn (fitted to the logistic curve[2], x=0 is basically 2010, y is percent adoption) [1] Which you should completely trust because I've been doing this for all of 20 minutes! [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function#In_economics_and_sociology:_diffusion_of_innovations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function#In_economics...
- pfranz 9y ago
  Thanks for taking the time to do that! Lets say 20% adoption means we're 40% of the way through the transition. The slope for IPv6 looks better and better every day, but overall it's not a great adoption story for tech that inevitably has to happen. (not to discourage or minimize the all the hard work done in getting IPv6 this far)

JBiserkov 9y ago

Offtopic, but did you notice the 3-4% spikes on Saturdays? And the dips on workdays. I assume workplaces have a lower adoption rate due to enterprise inertia. Or is there another explanation?

pfranz 9y ago
You're absolutely right. I've read in other articles that IPv6 jumps up on weekends. IPv6 adoption is incredibly skewed. It's much higher in things like cellular networks and in developing countries. I think the weekend jump is attributed to cellphones (not sure if I'm connecting the dots or if that's what the consensus is).

hinkley 9y ago

That graph has a couple doglegs that make it look exponential. The last dogleg was January 2015. And since then it’s been linear (with a little stall this month) at about 5% of the Internet converting per year. That’s another 15 years to convert the rest, unless there’s a new dog leg up. Also percentages don’t work the way humans think they do. Especially when the number of devices is constantly climbing. That may just indicate that some fraction of new hardware is ipv6 but little old hardware is being updated. We may well have ~2 billion machines on ipv4 pretty much indefinitely, slowly being diluted by addition of new hardware.

pfranz 9y ago
Agreed. I say IPv6 is inevitable, but it's not like the IPv4 addresses will expire. The economics going forward will be interesting. I've seen some low-end VPSes charge a lower rate for machines that are IPv6-only.
- mavendependency 9y ago
  Cloudflare enabled domains can tunnel ipv6-only hosts for ipv4 clients.