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Chess has 16 pieces each in one of 65 positions, so the state space is roughly 65^16. A car has more than 16 parts each in more than 65 possible positions. The

by allenz 9y ago

Chess has 16 pieces each in one of 65 positions, so the state space is roughly 65^16. A car has more than 16 parts each in more than 65 possible positions. There are around 100 legal moves for any chess position, and only a handful of rules. The possible actions and rules for building cars is literally all of physics and engineering.

thaumasiotes 9y ago
> Chess has 16 pieces each in one of 65 positions, so the state space is roughly 65^16. This is a correct upper bound, but the state space is much smaller than that, as the only position that two pieces can share is "captured". Edit: it's not a correct upper bound (or at least, it may be larger than the state space, but only by coincidence), in that while there are at most 16 pieces, the pawns may be in an officer state rather than a pawn state.
JustAnotherPat 9y ago
I didn't read it that way. You're essentially reading it as the monkeys will eventually write Shakespeare scenario. The way I read it was, you have a robot and it: 1. knows it has to build a ferrari (implying it knows what it looks like at least) 2. knows nothing about building, parts, etc 3. can engage in some sort of learning behavior Once a robot knows it can only connect two parts by screwing them together, it will only try to screw them together, and it might even transfer that behavior over to other parts. The possible scenarios become much more limited as the robot gets smarter.
- squeaky-clean 9y ago
  > Once a robot knows it can only connect two parts by screwing them together, it will only try to screw them together, and it might even transfer that behavior over to other parts. Why would learning to screw invalidate other means of connecting things? Why not use an adhesive? Or weld the parts together? Or shape the materials so they can be joined without a separate fastener, like a dovetail or something. Even if it learns those, how does it know there isn't some way of connecting two parts by a chemical means that humans haven't discovered?
- goatlover 9y ago
  This wouldn't work for a human being who knows nothing about making automobiles, so why would it work for a robot?
- allenz 9y ago
  You're probably imagining an assembly line, where one step follows another in a logical procession, and there doesn't seem to be much of a branching factor. However, each step along that line is the process of many deep optimizations. It is more complicated than you think; thousands of people work on it. Consider just the case of choosing a screw, probably one of the most simple steps in building a car. These 24 pages only scratch the surface of the choices available: http://www.fastecindustrial.com/images/MediaCatFastener.pdf http://www.fastecindustrial.com/images/MediaCatFastener.pdf

by allenz 9y ago

thaumasiotes 9y ago

> Chess has 16 pieces each in one of 65 positions, so the state space is roughly 65^16. This is a correct upper bound, but the state space is much smaller than that, as the only position that two pieces can share is "captured". Edit: it's not a correct upper bound (or at least, it may be larger than the state space, but only by coincidence), in that while there are at most 16 pieces, the pawns may be in an officer state rather than a pawn state.

JustAnotherPat 9y ago

I didn't read it that way. You're essentially reading it as the monkeys will eventually write Shakespeare scenario. The way I read it was, you have a robot and it: 1. knows it has to build a ferrari (implying it knows what it looks like at least) 2. knows nothing about building, parts, etc 3. can engage in some sort of learning behavior Once a robot knows it can only connect two parts by screwing them together, it will only try to screw them together, and it might even transfer that behavior over to other parts. The possible scenarios become much more limited as the robot gets smarter.

squeaky-clean 9y ago
> Once a robot knows it can only connect two parts by screwing them together, it will only try to screw them together, and it might even transfer that behavior over to other parts. Why would learning to screw invalidate other means of connecting things? Why not use an adhesive? Or weld the parts together? Or shape the materials so they can be joined without a separate fastener, like a dovetail or something. Even if it learns those, how does it know there isn't some way of connecting two parts by a chemical means that humans haven't discovered?
goatlover 9y ago
This wouldn't work for a human being who knows nothing about making automobiles, so why would it work for a robot?
allenz 9y ago
You're probably imagining an assembly line, where one step follows another in a logical procession, and there doesn't seem to be much of a branching factor. However, each step along that line is the process of many deep optimizations. It is more complicated than you think; thousands of people work on it. Consider just the case of choosing a screw, probably one of the most simple steps in building a car. These 24 pages only scratch the surface of the choices available: http://www.fastecindustrial.com/images/MediaCatFastener.pdf http://www.fastecindustrial.com/images/MediaCatFastener.pdf