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> The thing is, individuals and institutions worldwide currently own around $300 trillion in financial assets.[a] The overwhelming majority of which is product

> The thing is, individuals and institutions worldwide currently own around $300 trillion in financial assets.[a] The overwhelming majority of which is productive assets. The only major non-transient holdings of non-productive assets is of gold. And that makes up about half a percent. So 2% for bitcoin, which at absolute very best is a slightly better gold, seems like a real stretch. > Note that before Bitcoin it was impossible to diversify away from all nation-specific risks. Gold

scrumper 9y ago
So, I like this line of reasoning. I'll extend it, on the ridiculously generous assumption that 10% of gold holdings will shift into BTC. $300tn * 0.005 * 0.1 = $150bn. That's my stab at a fair upper limit for a supportable market cap for BTC. EDIT so I guess that makes me a short. I'd better sell.
- VVayneTracker 9y ago
  10% seems highly optimistic. I would imagine it be ing an order of magnitude less. Then again. When humans are involved....
VVayneTracker 9y ago
I don't disagree but wonder whether the fact that it doesn't have a phyiscal property would militate in its favor over gold. I recently read a story about how a Saudi prince was having a few tonnes of gold driven to a neighboring country every day in order to avoid trade restrictions. Seems like it would be a lot easier and safer to just click a button on his computer. That said I could imagine it easily cutting the other way and saying that golds tangible properties are an advantage. This is a fascinating subject!
- bradleyjg 9y ago
  I don't buy the perfect means of evading capital control argument. Look the mirror trading that a bunch of billionaires used to evade capital controls in Russia: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/how-mirror-trades-moved-billions-from-russia-quicktake-q-a https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/how-mirro... It also just involved a click of a button. Nonetheless it was uncovered. Too often would be cypher-anarchists forget about rubber hose cryptoanaysis. And unlike gold, bitcoin are fundamentally non-fungible and traceable. The biggest advantage gold has over bitcoin is 5000 plus years of history as a store of value. The biggest advantage bitcoin has over gold is its immateriality. Personally I think the former outweighs the latter (no put intended).

scrumper 9y ago

So, I like this line of reasoning. I'll extend it, on the ridiculously generous assumption that 10% of gold holdings will shift into BTC. $300tn * 0.005 * 0.1 = $150bn. That's my stab at a fair upper limit for a supportable market cap for BTC. EDIT so I guess that makes me a short. I'd better sell.

VVayneTracker 9y ago
10% seems highly optimistic. I would imagine it be ing an order of magnitude less. Then again. When humans are involved....

VVayneTracker 9y ago

I don't disagree but wonder whether the fact that it doesn't have a phyiscal property would militate in its favor over gold. I recently read a story about how a Saudi prince was having a few tonnes of gold driven to a neighboring country every day in order to avoid trade restrictions. Seems like it would be a lot easier and safer to just click a button on his computer. That said I could imagine it easily cutting the other way and saying that golds tangible properties are an advantage. This is a fascinating subject!

bradleyjg 9y ago
I don't buy the perfect means of evading capital control argument. Look the mirror trading that a bunch of billionaires used to evade capital controls in Russia: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/how-mirror-trades-moved-billions-from-russia-quicktake-q-a https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/how-mirro... It also just involved a click of a button. Nonetheless it was uncovered. Too often would be cypher-anarchists forget about rubber hose cryptoanaysis. And unlike gold, bitcoin are fundamentally non-fungible and traceable. The biggest advantage gold has over bitcoin is 5000 plus years of history as a store of value. The biggest advantage bitcoin has over gold is its immateriality. Personally I think the former outweighs the latter (no put intended).