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An article claiming bitcoin's a bubble? Wow, hadn't considered that before! Just yesterday it came to light that the ECB was purchasing fraudulent bonds that

An article claiming bitcoin's a bubble? Wow, hadn't considered that before! Just yesterday it came to light that the ECB was purchasing fraudulent bonds that are now worthless. The Bank of Japan is directly buying ETFs. The Federal Reserve increased the money supply to levels never seen before using QE, and has yet to reduce its balance sheet even slightly. Housing is more expensive than it's ever been. Stock markets are more expensive than they've ever been. Everyone knows the official rate of inflation is well below the real rate. Our savings accounts have effectively negatively interest rates. But bitcoin is the bubble. Bitcoin is the only safe haven asset available for purchase right now. It's the only asset that doesn't require me to trust an institution or an individual. It can't be confiscated. It's rules are known. I'll trust in Bitcoin, thanks.

paulpauper 9y ago
it's the everything-goes-up economy: bitcoin, expensive homes, stocks, web 2.0 valuations, etc.
CPLX 9y ago
> Bitcoin is the only safe haven asset available for purchase right now. lol
- etr-strike 9y ago
  Is bitcoin volatile? Absolutely...but how do you expect a completely new asset type to behave? At this point bitcoin is a populist movement just as unexpected as Trump or Brexit. It's a populist revolt against monetary policy which people have no control over. Of course this trustless and decentralized asset type forcing it's way into the world financial system is going to experience volatility.
  - CPLX 9y ago
    Bitcoin, currently, is a mechanism for high stakes gambling.* People fucking love gambling. So it's a useful innovation, in a sense. As long as you actually understand what it is and why people are buying it you'll be OK. Calling it a safe haven asset class however, is, in fact, amusing. * To be fair it's also good for buying drugs, credit card numbers, and child porn.
    - rhino369 9y ago
      >* To be fair it's also good for buying drugs, credit card numbers, and child porn. Is it even good for that anymore? I've heard the black markets are moving to other crypto because bitcoin transaction fees are getting stupidly large. But that could be fake news.
      - Fukkaudeku 9y ago
        Afaik they moved to Monero, because having the ability to see all transactions publicly from an address isn't very anonymous at all.
castis 9y ago
So when the overall bubble pops, what do you imagine bitcoin will do?
- etr-strike 9y ago
  When the overall bubble pops, where are you going to go? Will you trust the dollar? What if bonds are defaulting and no one is paying their debts, will you stay in the dollar? What if there's significant inflation? Your life savings are subject to the whims of unelected central bankers who are deciding the winners and losers.
  - yeukhon 9y ago
    While the US dollar value is indeed going down a bit lately, there is one thing about global economy. At this very era, no matter what the deficit is, the US federal government will continue to borrow money from creditors. Sure at some point there will not be enough cash so the government is forced to print more money (essentially QE again). The point is certain large institutions will always have someone to backup. This is why I kept arguing the other week about stock vs estate property (but kept getting downvotes brcause apparently people did not like when I suggested to invest in real estates). When bonds and everything else fail, people will find every penny to find a place to live. But that’s my conservative belief. Citibank will not fail - someone else come will in and swallow it (or government will bail) - the number of global customers just cannot let Citibank fail completely. Bitcoin on the hand is completely different - there is no one to back it up. It’s either a up or down game. There is no prediction based on revenue or “exciting new breakthrough”. But its weakness is also an advantage the way I see. Bitcoin and likes allow investors to focus on buy and sell without studying hard about the market. It’s a pure gambling - yes I realized there are maths and logics in defeating gambling games casinos.... Honestly - selfishly, I really want to see bitcoin fail to thr bottom so late riders like I get to buy some :( But I urge folks to be ready for a sell. There is absolutely no way bitcoin will keep rising this way. It will either crash in 2-3 months back to $500-1000 or there will be a ceiling (e.g resetting the base price).
  - castis 9y ago
    Answering a genuine question with a whole bunch of other stuff is cool too I suppose, thanks.
mylons 9y ago
clap clap clap clap clap
thinkMOAR 9y ago
If you read the source code of bitcoin, considering all the technical issues, you will not put your full trust in bitcoin. Your bitcoins can be confiscated, government can seize all your property for <reason they will come up with when they want to>. If you no longer have your private key, good bye wallet.
- etr-strike 9y ago
  Ok, how about this: It's the most difficult asset to confiscate in existence. In the worst case scenario, as long as I can memorize 12 words I can take my wealth with me anywhere.
  - almost_usual 9y ago
    Or have someone with a gun beat it out of your head. I really don’t understand how Bitcoin is a safer asset.
  - colejohnson66 9y ago
    There’s an xkcd about this: https://xkcd.com/538/ https://xkcd.com/538/ In short: it’s not as difficult as you think.
    - nrhk 9y ago
      No asset in the world can hold up against that.... I feel like this is a strawman argument here, you think your buried gold, bank accounts or any other number of things going to hold up against that?
      - PeterisP 9y ago
        If someone kidnaps Bill Gates, forces them to do whatever for a limited time, and he later gets out alive, he'll still retain the vast majority of his wealth no matter what. For an ordinary person, investing in real estate is a simple example that meets this test - you can beat me up with a wrench and force me to do stuff, but I'll be able to recover (most of) it afterwards. For the common person, irrevocable transactions bring little benefit but a lot of risk, it's a drawback not a feature. Yes, that's not resistant against the government - but again, a normal person is a lot more likely to encounter criminals trying to "confiscate" everything they own rather than government doing the same. Sure, there are edge cases (e.g. fraudsters stashing their gains, deadbeat dads refusing to support their kids, etc, etc) but for a normal person worrying about government seizure is much less relevant than, for example, ensuring that you don't lose your BTC in a house fire that burns all your stuff. Would your fire insurance cover that?
trgv 9y ago
> It's the only asset that doesn't require me to trust an institution or an individual. It can't be confiscated. It's rules are known. If we really want to take this argument to an extreme, the government can kill you, torture you, throw you in a jail cell, or otherwise apply force until you give up your bitcoins. If I thought the world economy was on the brink (I don't) I would buy non-perishable food, water, firewood, a generator, fossil fuels, solar power, etc. Of course the government could kill me and seize all of that too, so I'd probably want to buy a bunker in some remote part of the world.
spookthesunset 9y ago
The quickest way to tell that bitcoin is a bubble is when shysters start making breathless posts like yours. Bitcoin as a populist movement?? No sir. It is pure greed (and probably a healthy dose of good old fashioned MtGox style exchange manipulation) driving this bubble. Nobody buying right now is participating in some kind of mass uprising against the man. They are buying, holding, and praying they can unload their stash onto some greater fool right before the whole thing collapses. No safe haven asset is as volatile as bitcoin. Bitcoin is over 9 years old. It still can’t, and never will, scale to handle even an order of magnitude less transactions than visa. The blockchain is worthless for almost every application. Bitcoin, at this point, is pure hype.
- etr-strike 9y ago
  Bitcoin is under perpetual innovation: Here it is yesterday performing a lightning transaction on mainnet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a73Gz3Tvx3k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a73Gz3Tvx3k Here's an implementation of Ethereum smart contracts running as a bitcoin sidechain on mainnet: https://www.rsk.co/ https://www.rsk.co/ Here's Greg Maxwell discussing scaling while keeping the network decentralized: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHIuuKCm53o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHIuuKCm53o Bitcoin has been taken as a joke for 9 years by anyone unwilling to actually learn about it. It's come a long ways since Mt Gox and is arguably the freest market in existence. There are online exchanges in every major country that run 24/7. You can trade without an exchange at all using localbitcoins.com. Anyone is allowed to participate and no one can manipulate the fundamental rules of the currency. Keep living in denial.
  - spookthesunset 9y ago
    If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is....
  - freeone3000 9y ago
    But what can I actually buy with it? It's not really useful for anything.
workthrowaway27 9y ago
Implicit in Bitcoin's price is the assumption that the US government will continue tolerating BTC and allow easy conversion of BTC to USD. So much for a safe haven asset.
mrep 9y ago
Actually, you are trusting an institution called the chinese government. Bitcoin mining is concentrated in just a few companies in china that could easily collude to own 51+% mining share. If the chinese government decides they want to destroy bitcoin, they can easily do it at any point: https://medium.com/@homakov/how-to-destroy-bitcoin-with-51-pocked-guide-for-governments-83d9bdf2ef6b https://medium.com/@homakov/how-to-destroy-bitcoin-with-51-p...

paulpauper 9y ago

it's the everything-goes-up economy: bitcoin, expensive homes, stocks, web 2.0 valuations, etc.

CPLX 9y ago

> Bitcoin is the only safe haven asset available for purchase right now. lol

etr-strike 9y ago
Is bitcoin volatile? Absolutely...but how do you expect a completely new asset type to behave? At this point bitcoin is a populist movement just as unexpected as Trump or Brexit. It's a populist revolt against monetary policy which people have no control over. Of course this trustless and decentralized asset type forcing it's way into the world financial system is going to experience volatility.
- CPLX 9y ago
  Bitcoin, currently, is a mechanism for high stakes gambling.* People fucking love gambling. So it's a useful innovation, in a sense. As long as you actually understand what it is and why people are buying it you'll be OK. Calling it a safe haven asset class however, is, in fact, amusing. * To be fair it's also good for buying drugs, credit card numbers, and child porn.
  - rhino369 9y ago
    >* To be fair it's also good for buying drugs, credit card numbers, and child porn. Is it even good for that anymore? I've heard the black markets are moving to other crypto because bitcoin transaction fees are getting stupidly large. But that could be fake news.
    - Fukkaudeku 9y ago
      Afaik they moved to Monero, because having the ability to see all transactions publicly from an address isn't very anonymous at all.

castis 9y ago

So when the overall bubble pops, what do you imagine bitcoin will do?

etr-strike 9y ago
When the overall bubble pops, where are you going to go? Will you trust the dollar? What if bonds are defaulting and no one is paying their debts, will you stay in the dollar? What if there's significant inflation? Your life savings are subject to the whims of unelected central bankers who are deciding the winners and losers.
- yeukhon 9y ago
  While the US dollar value is indeed going down a bit lately, there is one thing about global economy. At this very era, no matter what the deficit is, the US federal government will continue to borrow money from creditors. Sure at some point there will not be enough cash so the government is forced to print more money (essentially QE again). The point is certain large institutions will always have someone to backup. This is why I kept arguing the other week about stock vs estate property (but kept getting downvotes brcause apparently people did not like when I suggested to invest in real estates). When bonds and everything else fail, people will find every penny to find a place to live. But that’s my conservative belief. Citibank will not fail - someone else come will in and swallow it (or government will bail) - the number of global customers just cannot let Citibank fail completely. Bitcoin on the hand is completely different - there is no one to back it up. It’s either a up or down game. There is no prediction based on revenue or “exciting new breakthrough”. But its weakness is also an advantage the way I see. Bitcoin and likes allow investors to focus on buy and sell without studying hard about the market. It’s a pure gambling - yes I realized there are maths and logics in defeating gambling games casinos.... Honestly - selfishly, I really want to see bitcoin fail to thr bottom so late riders like I get to buy some :( But I urge folks to be ready for a sell. There is absolutely no way bitcoin will keep rising this way. It will either crash in 2-3 months back to $500-1000 or there will be a ceiling (e.g resetting the base price).
- castis 9y ago
  Answering a genuine question with a whole bunch of other stuff is cool too I suppose, thanks.

mylons 9y ago

clap clap clap clap clap

thinkMOAR 9y ago

If you read the source code of bitcoin, considering all the technical issues, you will not put your full trust in bitcoin. Your bitcoins can be confiscated, government can seize all your property for <reason they will come up with when they want to>. If you no longer have your private key, good bye wallet.

etr-strike 9y ago
Ok, how about this: It's the most difficult asset to confiscate in existence. In the worst case scenario, as long as I can memorize 12 words I can take my wealth with me anywhere.
- almost_usual 9y ago
  Or have someone with a gun beat it out of your head. I really don’t understand how Bitcoin is a safer asset.
- colejohnson66 9y ago
  There’s an xkcd about this: https://xkcd.com/538/ https://xkcd.com/538/ In short: it’s not as difficult as you think.
  - nrhk 9y ago
    No asset in the world can hold up against that.... I feel like this is a strawman argument here, you think your buried gold, bank accounts or any other number of things going to hold up against that?
    - PeterisP 9y ago
      If someone kidnaps Bill Gates, forces them to do whatever for a limited time, and he later gets out alive, he'll still retain the vast majority of his wealth no matter what. For an ordinary person, investing in real estate is a simple example that meets this test - you can beat me up with a wrench and force me to do stuff, but I'll be able to recover (most of) it afterwards. For the common person, irrevocable transactions bring little benefit but a lot of risk, it's a drawback not a feature. Yes, that's not resistant against the government - but again, a normal person is a lot more likely to encounter criminals trying to "confiscate" everything they own rather than government doing the same. Sure, there are edge cases (e.g. fraudsters stashing their gains, deadbeat dads refusing to support their kids, etc, etc) but for a normal person worrying about government seizure is much less relevant than, for example, ensuring that you don't lose your BTC in a house fire that burns all your stuff. Would your fire insurance cover that?

trgv 9y ago

> It's the only asset that doesn't require me to trust an institution or an individual. It can't be confiscated. It's rules are known. If we really want to take this argument to an extreme, the government can kill you, torture you, throw you in a jail cell, or otherwise apply force until you give up your bitcoins. If I thought the world economy was on the brink (I don't) I would buy non-perishable food, water, firewood, a generator, fossil fuels, solar power, etc. Of course the government could kill me and seize all of that too, so I'd probably want to buy a bunker in some remote part of the world.

spookthesunset 9y ago

The quickest way to tell that bitcoin is a bubble is when shysters start making breathless posts like yours. Bitcoin as a populist movement?? No sir. It is pure greed (and probably a healthy dose of good old fashioned MtGox style exchange manipulation) driving this bubble. Nobody buying right now is participating in some kind of mass uprising against the man. They are buying, holding, and praying they can unload their stash onto some greater fool right before the whole thing collapses. No safe haven asset is as volatile as bitcoin. Bitcoin is over 9 years old. It still can’t, and never will, scale to handle even an order of magnitude less transactions than visa. The blockchain is worthless for almost every application. Bitcoin, at this point, is pure hype.

etr-strike 9y ago
Bitcoin is under perpetual innovation: Here it is yesterday performing a lightning transaction on mainnet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a73Gz3Tvx3k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a73Gz3Tvx3k Here's an implementation of Ethereum smart contracts running as a bitcoin sidechain on mainnet: https://www.rsk.co/ https://www.rsk.co/ Here's Greg Maxwell discussing scaling while keeping the network decentralized: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHIuuKCm53o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHIuuKCm53o Bitcoin has been taken as a joke for 9 years by anyone unwilling to actually learn about it. It's come a long ways since Mt Gox and is arguably the freest market in existence. There are online exchanges in every major country that run 24/7. You can trade without an exchange at all using localbitcoins.com. Anyone is allowed to participate and no one can manipulate the fundamental rules of the currency. Keep living in denial.
- spookthesunset 9y ago
  If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is....
- freeone3000 9y ago
  But what can I actually buy with it? It's not really useful for anything.

workthrowaway27 9y ago

Implicit in Bitcoin's price is the assumption that the US government will continue tolerating BTC and allow easy conversion of BTC to USD. So much for a safe haven asset.

mrep 9y ago

Actually, you are trusting an institution called the chinese government. Bitcoin mining is concentrated in just a few companies in china that could easily collude to own 51+% mining share. If the chinese government decides they want to destroy bitcoin, they can easily do it at any point: https://medium.com/@homakov/how-to-destroy-bitcoin-with-51-pocked-guide-for-governments-83d9bdf2ef6b https://medium.com/@homakov/how-to-destroy-bitcoin-with-51-p...