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I will say what I've always said about crypto... Keep telling me it's a bubble. Keep writing long educated articles about it. All while I consistently get rich

by mavdi 9y ago

I will say what I've always said about crypto... Keep telling me it's a bubble. Keep writing long educated articles about it. All while I consistently get rich. All while it's getting late for you to get rich too.

stephengillie 9y ago
Remember 2013 and 2014? What's different this time?
- mavdi 9y ago
  Nothing is different. I said back then it would hit $1M in 10 years, I will say the same now except perhaps now 2 years. People are really underestimating what a shit storm Bitcoin and other crypto will cause in finance.
  - wyldfire 9y ago
    I'm long on bitcoin. I think it's awesome and a powerful, clever innovation. But I don't think that cryptocurrencies will cause a "shitstorm". I'm under no delusion that Your Favorite Bank or Stock Exchange won't exist in two years, or in ten or even twenty. Managing and storing/handling/operating cryptocoins is not for the feint of heart. At best, the most disruption you might see would be the Coinbases of the world having a bigger role in some of the global financial market and traditional financial giants having some slightly smaller role to make room. Holding bitcoin on your own is better than putting money in your mattress, but it's way, way, way less safe than an insured deposit in a bank. The volatility will decrease but it will at best be subject to the same 0.5-1% intradaily swings that a foreign currency goes through. It would take a substantial amount of time and money for it to settle down that much, though.
  - stinky613 9y ago
    Why and how will they cause a shit storm in finance?
  - deadmetheny 9y ago
    The financial shitstorm that it's gonna cause is when the world comes to its fucking senses and realizes that burning electricity to move around Internet Fun Bucks is a massive waste, the bottom falls out entirely, and this whole thing is finally behind us. I'm gonna feel vaguely sorry for everyone who put their life's savings into Dunning-Krugerrands to get a handful of lucky nerds who got out at the right time rich.
    - harrumph 9y ago
      >Managing and storing/handling/operating cryptocoins is not for the feint of heart. Given the body count of exchanges and coins that have collapsed due to unauthorized access, your spelling error is actually a beautiful thing.
    - pessimizer 9y ago
      > everyone who put their life's savings into Dunning-Krugerrands I'm pretty sure that's going to turn out to be pension, mutual funds, and banks, just like last time, and everyone is going to be screwed. The question as bitcoin rises is how much has been borrowed against bitcoin holdings in how many ass-backward, half-fraudulent, made-legal-by-obscure-clauses-in-amendments-written-by-lobbyists-and-attached-to-unrelated-bills-with-bipartisan-support ways.
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- DennisP 9y ago
  If nothing is different, you're implying that if someone holds through the next crash, they'll reach much greater heights later. (But personally I think there is a difference: there's more-advanced competition now.)
AznHisoka 9y ago
Why would it ever be late to get rich if it's not a bubble?
- mavdi 9y ago
  I think the price will stabilise at some point with small fluctuations (just like gold). So soon you won't be able to make money from buying in early.
  - singularity2001 9y ago
    no the price can't stabilize. Its hyper-deflationary by Design. it will either go way up or completely down.
    - mavdi 9y ago
      Fair enough :) You should write a long educated article about it!
    - popol12 9y ago
      yes, just like gold, right ?
  - rsynnott 9y ago
    > I think the price will stabilise at some point with small fluctuations (just like gold). Have you ever looked at the price history of gold in inflation-adjusted terms? That is VERY much not what gold does.
- bryanrasmussen 9y ago
  Well the industrial revolution was not a bubble, but it's pretty late in general to get rich at the industrializing your local handy-crafts. Not that I have an opinion on Bitcoin not being a bubble.
  - gspetr 9y ago
    > it's pretty late in general to get rich at the industrializing your local handy-crafts. In general, yes. But now you can get rich when you deindustrialize: http://instapaint.com/ http://instapaint.com/
empath75 9y ago
Tell that to all the paper millionaires I knew in the late 90s who lost everything in the dotcom bubble. They were 'rich', too, for a few months.
- zaidf 9y ago
  There is a difference between "a few months" and 7 years (and going).
whyenot 9y ago
> All while it's getting late for you to get rich too. It's easy to get on the train, much harder to know when to get off. I still remember the anguished posts four years ago on HN from people who put their life savings into bitcoin shortly before the market crashed. One Reddit user on r/bitcoinmarkets posted that he had lost everything and took his own life. It took years for the market to recover. Don't fool yourself, nobody knows where this train is going.
PeterisP 9y ago
Have you actually gotten rich? As in, have you realized any of your gains; have you diversified your (new) assets so that at least a significant part of them is in something that's not speculative and can't go down much even if you're mistaken? For example, silicon valley is full of people that were once multi-multi-millionaires on paper by holding stock that had an extremely high price, but didn't manage to get to sell it until the valuation collapsed. There's much more of them than the actual multi-multi-millionaires.

by mavdi 9y ago

stephengillie 9y ago

Remember 2013 and 2014? What's different this time?

mavdi 9y ago
Nothing is different. I said back then it would hit $1M in 10 years, I will say the same now except perhaps now 2 years. People are really underestimating what a shit storm Bitcoin and other crypto will cause in finance.
- wyldfire 9y ago
  I'm long on bitcoin. I think it's awesome and a powerful, clever innovation. But I don't think that cryptocurrencies will cause a "shitstorm". I'm under no delusion that Your Favorite Bank or Stock Exchange won't exist in two years, or in ten or even twenty. Managing and storing/handling/operating cryptocoins is not for the feint of heart. At best, the most disruption you might see would be the Coinbases of the world having a bigger role in some of the global financial market and traditional financial giants having some slightly smaller role to make room. Holding bitcoin on your own is better than putting money in your mattress, but it's way, way, way less safe than an insured deposit in a bank. The volatility will decrease but it will at best be subject to the same 0.5-1% intradaily swings that a foreign currency goes through. It would take a substantial amount of time and money for it to settle down that much, though.
- stinky613 9y ago
  Why and how will they cause a shit storm in finance?
- deadmetheny 9y ago
  The financial shitstorm that it's gonna cause is when the world comes to its fucking senses and realizes that burning electricity to move around Internet Fun Bucks is a massive waste, the bottom falls out entirely, and this whole thing is finally behind us. I'm gonna feel vaguely sorry for everyone who put their life's savings into Dunning-Krugerrands to get a handful of lucky nerds who got out at the right time rich.
  - harrumph 9y ago
    >Managing and storing/handling/operating cryptocoins is not for the feint of heart. Given the body count of exchanges and coins that have collapsed due to unauthorized access, your spelling error is actually a beautiful thing.
  - pessimizer 9y ago
    > everyone who put their life's savings into Dunning-Krugerrands I'm pretty sure that's going to turn out to be pension, mutual funds, and banks, just like last time, and everyone is going to be screwed. The question as bitcoin rises is how much has been borrowed against bitcoin holdings in how many ass-backward, half-fraudulent, made-legal-by-obscure-clauses-in-amendments-written-by-lobbyists-and-attached-to-unrelated-bills-with-bipartisan-support ways.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
DennisP 9y ago
If nothing is different, you're implying that if someone holds through the next crash, they'll reach much greater heights later. (But personally I think there is a difference: there's more-advanced competition now.)

AznHisoka 9y ago

Why would it ever be late to get rich if it's not a bubble?

mavdi 9y ago
I think the price will stabilise at some point with small fluctuations (just like gold). So soon you won't be able to make money from buying in early.
- singularity2001 9y ago
  no the price can't stabilize. Its hyper-deflationary by Design. it will either go way up or completely down.
  - mavdi 9y ago
    Fair enough :) You should write a long educated article about it!
  - popol12 9y ago
    yes, just like gold, right ?
- rsynnott 9y ago
  > I think the price will stabilise at some point with small fluctuations (just like gold). Have you ever looked at the price history of gold in inflation-adjusted terms? That is VERY much not what gold does.
bryanrasmussen 9y ago
Well the industrial revolution was not a bubble, but it's pretty late in general to get rich at the industrializing your local handy-crafts. Not that I have an opinion on Bitcoin not being a bubble.
- gspetr 9y ago
  > it's pretty late in general to get rich at the industrializing your local handy-crafts. In general, yes. But now you can get rich when you deindustrialize: http://instapaint.com/ http://instapaint.com/

empath75 9y ago

Tell that to all the paper millionaires I knew in the late 90s who lost everything in the dotcom bubble. They were 'rich', too, for a few months.

zaidf 9y ago
There is a difference between "a few months" and 7 years (and going).

whyenot 9y ago

> All while it's getting late for you to get rich too. It's easy to get on the train, much harder to know when to get off. I still remember the anguished posts four years ago on HN from people who put their life savings into bitcoin shortly before the market crashed. One Reddit user on r/bitcoinmarkets posted that he had lost everything and took his own life. It took years for the market to recover. Don't fool yourself, nobody knows where this train is going.

PeterisP 9y ago

Have you actually gotten rich? As in, have you realized any of your gains; have you diversified your (new) assets so that at least a significant part of them is in something that's not speculative and can't go down much even if you're mistaken? For example, silicon valley is full of people that were once multi-multi-millionaires on paper by holding stock that had an extremely high price, but didn't manage to get to sell it until the valuation collapsed. There's much more of them than the actual multi-multi-millionaires.