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I anticipate that a lot of comments about "bad bubble" and "bad bitcoin" will emerge like on every thread about bitcoin on HN. I think people just don't unders

I anticipate that a lot of comments about "bad bubble" and "bad bitcoin" will emerge like on every thread about bitcoin on HN. I think people just don't understand that most participants in "Bitcon boom" knows this is a bubble. Every major news outlet says it's a bubble every couple of weeks. This is a common knowledge, everyone are saying it's a bubble. I know it's a bubble too and I have bitcoins but I don't care that it's a bubble. I am holding BTC from the time it was worth couple of times less when everyone was saying it's a bubble also. Even if it goes down a lot below 10k now I will still make money. I think a lot of people yelling "you morons don't buy bitcoin!!!1111" need to understand that people are aware of the risk, like they are aware when going to casino that they can lose money and there will be people that will lose their money for sure. The last one in the game takes the highest risk, that's all.

bllguo 9y ago
How is that relevant, the price spiking isn't because of people like you. It's because of people buying in now. People are obviously not capable of understanding risk. Are you serious? You bring up casinos when they are perhaps the best example of how ill-equipped the majority of people are to understand risk and probability.
- lossolo 9y ago
  > How is that relevant, the price spiking isn't because of people like you. It's because of people buying in now. I wrote in my last sentence that they take the highest risk. > how ill-equipped the majority of people are to understand risk and probability. If that's true then conclusion would be that democracy/any liberal system is the worst system of them all, because if majority of people do not understand risk and probability they shouldn't be allowed to even vote. As I already wrote, all the data is there, just turn on the TV and you will hear "it's a bubble". No one is deceiving anyone in saying it's not a bubble in mainstream media.
- prawn 9y ago
  I think people buying in now know the risk too. I don't think the general, general population is buying yet. Anyone I know coming in during the last few months has been reasonably savvy. Taking a risk, but they're aware of it. Two people asked me the other week, "Are we too late?" I said that I didn't think so, but to only risk what they could afford to lose. They bought in around $8k. It's now approaching $15k, two weeks later.
nostrademons 9y ago
"I am holding BTC from the time it was worth couple of times less when everyone was saying it's a bubble also. Even if it goes down below 10k now I will still make money." It sounds like you haven't been through a bubble before. In the dot-com bubble, the losing stocks didn't see their value cut by 3-5x. That was the winning stocks - Amazon lost 93% of its value between 2000 and 2001, EBay lost 75%, Cisco lost 80%. The losers saw it cut to zero. In a very short period of time, too - slower flameouts took a matter of months, quick ones were literally overnight. One day a company would have 3000 employees and be worth $5B, the next day the company would be bankrupt and everyone would be laid off. I've got a few grand in Bitcoin too (a remnant of the last Bitcoin bubble in 2013 that I never bothered to dispose of), and it's been a fun ride, and it wouldn't surprise me if this is still near the beginning of the Bitcoin bubble and we have a while to go. But please, for the love of god, do not invest money in Bitcoin that you can't afford to lose. Because when bubbles pop, they don't just drop a couple percent or even a couple times. They usually go to zero, and everyone who was burned avoids that asset class for at least the next decade if not for life.
- lossolo 9y ago
  > It sounds like you haven't been through a bubble before. I had bitcoin in 2012 also. I've sold it when it hit 1000$ just before Mt Gox collapsing. > and it wouldn't surprise me if this is still near the beginning of the Bitcoin bubble and we have a while to go Agree. > But please, for the love of god, do not invest money in Bitcoin that you can't afford to lose. I also agree here 100%, unfortunately some people bet a lot more, anyway, I can't stop someone from going into casino and betting all they have on red.

bllguo 9y ago

How is that relevant, the price spiking isn't because of people like you. It's because of people buying in now. People are obviously not capable of understanding risk. Are you serious? You bring up casinos when they are perhaps the best example of how ill-equipped the majority of people are to understand risk and probability.

lossolo 9y ago
> How is that relevant, the price spiking isn't because of people like you. It's because of people buying in now. I wrote in my last sentence that they take the highest risk. > how ill-equipped the majority of people are to understand risk and probability. If that's true then conclusion would be that democracy/any liberal system is the worst system of them all, because if majority of people do not understand risk and probability they shouldn't be allowed to even vote. As I already wrote, all the data is there, just turn on the TV and you will hear "it's a bubble". No one is deceiving anyone in saying it's not a bubble in mainstream media.
prawn 9y ago
I think people buying in now know the risk too. I don't think the general, general population is buying yet. Anyone I know coming in during the last few months has been reasonably savvy. Taking a risk, but they're aware of it. Two people asked me the other week, "Are we too late?" I said that I didn't think so, but to only risk what they could afford to lose. They bought in around $8k. It's now approaching $15k, two weeks later.

nostrademons 9y ago

"I am holding BTC from the time it was worth couple of times less when everyone was saying it's a bubble also. Even if it goes down below 10k now I will still make money." It sounds like you haven't been through a bubble before. In the dot-com bubble, the losing stocks didn't see their value cut by 3-5x. That was the winning stocks - Amazon lost 93% of its value between 2000 and 2001, EBay lost 75%, Cisco lost 80%. The losers saw it cut to zero. In a very short period of time, too - slower flameouts took a matter of months, quick ones were literally overnight. One day a company would have 3000 employees and be worth $5B, the next day the company would be bankrupt and everyone would be laid off. I've got a few grand in Bitcoin too (a remnant of the last Bitcoin bubble in 2013 that I never bothered to dispose of), and it's been a fun ride, and it wouldn't surprise me if this is still near the beginning of the Bitcoin bubble and we have a while to go. But please, for the love of god, do not invest money in Bitcoin that you can't afford to lose. Because when bubbles pop, they don't just drop a couple percent or even a couple times. They usually go to zero, and everyone who was burned avoids that asset class for at least the next decade if not for life.

lossolo 9y ago
> It sounds like you haven't been through a bubble before. I had bitcoin in 2012 also. I've sold it when it hit 1000$ just before Mt Gox collapsing. > and it wouldn't surprise me if this is still near the beginning of the Bitcoin bubble and we have a while to go Agree. > But please, for the love of god, do not invest money in Bitcoin that you can't afford to lose. I also agree here 100%, unfortunately some people bet a lot more, anyway, I can't stop someone from going into casino and betting all they have on red.