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I posted this as an Ask HN, but this might be interesting here. It's sort of off-topic, but in this case there's not much to say about Steam dropping Bitcoin a

I posted this as an Ask HN, but this might be interesting here. It's sort of off-topic, but in this case there's not much to say about Steam dropping Bitcoin anyway. Maybe it'll hover near the bottom: What should we do about the destabilizing potential of Bitcoin? There are two facts about Bitcoin worth worrying about: 1. There is no upper bound on the price 2. Everyone who thought the price won't continue to exponentially increase was wrong Greed is a powerful motivator. It's easy to smile at this[1] but it will only take a couple more 10x increases before people stop laughing. What happens when governments start putting money into Bitcoin because they don't want their economy to be left out? It'll only make the price go up even further. It might be a good idea to take a step back for a moment and stop thinking "Can I get rich?" and start thinking "Before this reaches a point where we should worry, what should we do?" I'm aware that this has roughly a 0.1% chance of happening. But if you'll suspend your disbelief for a few minutes and accept "What if it might be true?" then you'll find it's an interesting question worth thinking about. It's starting to feel like no one really has a plan for this contingency. It will be a relief if the price crashes back to $1k, but Bitcoin defies belief. How many of you have parents that are seriously talking about getting in? Everyone wants to become rich. And if that infectious mindset spreads to the whole population, we might get an uncontrolled upward spiral. Is there a way to prevent that? [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_time...

cgmg 9y ago
Why would it be a 'relief' if the price crashes back to $1K?
- sillysaurus3 9y ago
  Because it's better than being on a trajectory where BTC hitting $1m is a real possibility. That world will be terrifying, and it's important for us to think about ways of mitigating or stopping it.
  - lifty 9y ago
    Can you go into more detail as to why that world would be terrifying? Is it because the implications predicted by orthodox monetary theory?
    - paulgb 9y ago
      One that comes to mind: it would be profitable for miners to burn through $12 million dollars every 10 minutes for the block reward alone.
      - lifty 9y ago
        $12 million worth of electricity every 10 minutes is indeed mind boggling. I don't expect that BTC will be valued at $1 million anytime soon, but if that would happen, and a large percentage of the world population would use Bitcoin, it would have captured a large percentage of global capital and market activity. So for this scenario, judging the future price of electricity in USD doesn't tell you much about the actual value of that electricity. But there are many other uses of energy that various subsets of people don't agree with, yet, as long as that electricity is paid for, the system keeps chugging along. What we have to fix is that tragedy of the commons, where we dump carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at no cost.
    - alexasmyths 9y ago
      "Is it because the implications predicted by orthodox monetary theory?" ---> Bitcoin is not money <---- There is no 'economics' or 'finance' or anything at play. It's Tulip Bulbs without the Tulip Bulbs. There are numbers, being traded back and forth for money 'because'. There is no way to price BTC - there are no real underlying drivers - just what your cab driver and the guy in your office is willing to pay in that day - for an arbitrary number. If anything, it's a study in pop culture, memes, and how information flows through social networks and the media. It's just a number. That's it. God knows why some people want to pay $10K for a number they can't do anything with ... unless of course they believe, for some arbitrary reason someone else well. Most bubbles are fuelled by speculation that is a multiplier of some underlying activity. But there is no 'underlying' BTC. So it's a study in pop culture. Not monetary theory.
aitrean 9y ago
1. There is an upper bound on price, same as any other asset. The upper bound has yet to be determined, however. 2. Everyone who thought the price wouldn't* continue to exponentially increase was wrong. So far. But this statement totally forgets the fact that shit changes. Anyone who said Yahoo was overvalued before 1999 was proven dead wrong. But after 1999, they were pretty much dead on. Everything else you said has a 0% chance of happening. Objectively speaking, Bitcoin will probably never become legitimized by any government. We're just testing how big a bubble gets.
- chrisco255 9y ago
  Apparently you haven't been paying attention to the news: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/11/06/japan-made-bitcoin-a-legal-currency-and-now-its-more-popular-than-ever.html https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/11/06/japan-made-bitcoin-a-l...
patmcc 9y ago
>>>2. Everyone who thought the price won't continue to exponentially increase was wrong So far. Want to bet on the price of bitcoin in 1/5/10/25/100 years?
- fullshark 9y ago
  I bet you one bitcoin at each time interval the price of bitcoin is above $30 USD.
  - Nydhal 9y ago
    You should increase the bet with every interval, for a better outcome :)
- librvf 9y ago
  I predict the price will continue to rise on average for the next 1-5 years, although it might start slowing. At some point between 10 and 25 years, Bitcoin will experience a major crash. Whether it stabilizes into some sort of useful medium of exchange alongside competing cryptocurrencies is hard to predict. It might survive in a limited role or a limited market, the value of which is very hard to imagine at this point. In 100 years I think bitcoin will be worthless.

cgmg 9y ago

Why would it be a 'relief' if the price crashes back to $1K?

sillysaurus3 9y ago
Because it's better than being on a trajectory where BTC hitting $1m is a real possibility. That world will be terrifying, and it's important for us to think about ways of mitigating or stopping it.
- lifty 9y ago
  Can you go into more detail as to why that world would be terrifying? Is it because the implications predicted by orthodox monetary theory?
  - paulgb 9y ago
    One that comes to mind: it would be profitable for miners to burn through $12 million dollars every 10 minutes for the block reward alone.
    - lifty 9y ago
      $12 million worth of electricity every 10 minutes is indeed mind boggling. I don't expect that BTC will be valued at $1 million anytime soon, but if that would happen, and a large percentage of the world population would use Bitcoin, it would have captured a large percentage of global capital and market activity. So for this scenario, judging the future price of electricity in USD doesn't tell you much about the actual value of that electricity. But there are many other uses of energy that various subsets of people don't agree with, yet, as long as that electricity is paid for, the system keeps chugging along. What we have to fix is that tragedy of the commons, where we dump carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at no cost.
  - alexasmyths 9y ago
    "Is it because the implications predicted by orthodox monetary theory?" ---> Bitcoin is not money <---- There is no 'economics' or 'finance' or anything at play. It's Tulip Bulbs without the Tulip Bulbs. There are numbers, being traded back and forth for money 'because'. There is no way to price BTC - there are no real underlying drivers - just what your cab driver and the guy in your office is willing to pay in that day - for an arbitrary number. If anything, it's a study in pop culture, memes, and how information flows through social networks and the media. It's just a number. That's it. God knows why some people want to pay $10K for a number they can't do anything with ... unless of course they believe, for some arbitrary reason someone else well. Most bubbles are fuelled by speculation that is a multiplier of some underlying activity. But there is no 'underlying' BTC. So it's a study in pop culture. Not monetary theory.

aitrean 9y ago

1. There is an upper bound on price, same as any other asset. The upper bound has yet to be determined, however. 2. Everyone who thought the price wouldn't* continue to exponentially increase was wrong. So far. But this statement totally forgets the fact that shit changes. Anyone who said Yahoo was overvalued before 1999 was proven dead wrong. But after 1999, they were pretty much dead on. Everything else you said has a 0% chance of happening. Objectively speaking, Bitcoin will probably never become legitimized by any government. We're just testing how big a bubble gets.

chrisco255 9y ago
Apparently you haven't been paying attention to the news: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/11/06/japan-made-bitcoin-a-legal-currency-and-now-its-more-popular-than-ever.html https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/11/06/japan-made-bitcoin-a-l...

patmcc 9y ago

>>>2. Everyone who thought the price won't continue to exponentially increase was wrong So far. Want to bet on the price of bitcoin in 1/5/10/25/100 years?

fullshark 9y ago
I bet you one bitcoin at each time interval the price of bitcoin is above $30 USD.
- Nydhal 9y ago
  You should increase the bet with every interval, for a better outcome :)
librvf 9y ago
I predict the price will continue to rise on average for the next 1-5 years, although it might start slowing. At some point between 10 and 25 years, Bitcoin will experience a major crash. Whether it stabilizes into some sort of useful medium of exchange alongside competing cryptocurrencies is hard to predict. It might survive in a limited role or a limited market, the value of which is very hard to imagine at this point. In 100 years I think bitcoin will be worthless.