5 ms·

It very obviously is. Nothing can grow at such an insane rate and be a stable, long-lasting thing. No one knows how high it will go, but that it will collapse h

It very obviously is. Nothing can grow at such an insane rate and be a stable, long-lasting thing. No one knows how high it will go, but that it will collapse hard soon is 100% sure.

Rmilb 9y ago
If you are certain it will collapse you can make a lot of money shorting it. If you are 100% sure, there is no downside.
- neilwilson 9y ago
  Generally the problem with shorting is that the shorts are time limited - because it is a derivative bet, not a proper loan. And following Keynes the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
- soneca 9y ago
  What financial mechanisms exist to short Bitcoin?
  - mancerayder 9y ago
    Here's an idea. Ethereum smart contracts to short bitcoin. You borrow my BTC for 30 days, with a 5% fee. Someone could make a killing off of that idea.
    - colecut 9y ago
      This is more of a general purpose app, but would work. https://gofreakingdoit.com/ https://gofreakingdoit.com/
    - chrdlu 9y ago
      https://medium.com/dydxderivatives/introducing-dydx-2d0f0f326fd https://medium.com/dydxderivatives/introducing-dydx-2d0f0f32... Note: I'm not affiliated with that project, but I did see them present yesterday at Token Summit and it looked very interesting!
  - beastlyhotfiyah 9y ago
    I used to short/long bitcoin/eth on GDAX, you have to register as a business and turn on Margin Trading
  - alexanat 9y ago
    CME Bitcoin futures
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]
  - buckthundaz 9y ago
    Possibly at bitmex: https://www.bitmex.com/ https://www.bitmex.com/ CBOE and CME to offer the next couple weeks.
- bwanab 9y ago
  Maybe you've heard the old finance saying: "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
- nodesocket 9y ago
  Is there even a US based legit platform to short Bitcoin? If Coinbase was serious about having a true market they would allow you to short Bitcoin as well as buy.
  - alexanat 9y ago
    CME is offering bitcoin futures starting next week. Interestingly enough, S. Korea has declared bitcoin futures illegal today and S. Korea is the leading buyer of BTC. Should be a good time.
  - beastlyhotfiyah 9y ago
    Coinbase does have a market tho, it's called GDAX, you use your coinbase login and it has margin trading on it. Once I found out about GDAX I never used coinbase again for trading currencies because GDAX has no transaction fees if you are creating the transaction ie. setting up the buy/sell limits
muzani 9y ago
It's technology and it's revolutionary. Both of those things tend to break all known patterns. Look at when corporations were invented or any other major tech revolution. It could well be the first example of something going so high. It's unlikely but I wouldn't say it's 100% sure to crash.
captainmuon 9y ago
> Nothing can grow at such an insane rate and be a stable, long-lasting thing. That sounds like common sense, but common sense is not neccessarily right. Imagine a German in the 1920s looking at the price of US dollars in Reichsmark. That can't be true, $1 for 1000 RM? Now 10000 RM? Nothing can grow at such an insane rate. Surely there is a dollar bubble, and it is going to crash. What our German friend didn't realize was that his own currency was (hyper-)inflatory. USD were not overvaluated, they were stable. The current situation is similar, except instead of our currency being inflatory, the other one is being deflatory - this has the same effect on the exchange rate. It does not neccessarily mean there is tulip fever going on (although, to be honest, I can't disprove that).
- akhatri_aus 9y ago
  Why aren't scarce resources like gold and oil going up the same way? I think gold made a low this week. Your theory doesn't align with what happened in Germany.
  - scrumper 9y ago
    Exactly. That German person could have bought a loaf of bread in the morning for RM1,000 then sold it to his neighbor in the afternoon for RM10,000. There are no citizens in Bitcoinland dealing with inflationary prices in virtual bread. Anything you can buy with Bitcoin is priced in fiat, denominated in BTC at whatever the spot rate of the moment happens to be. EDIT: > What our German friend didn't realize was that his own currency was (hyper-)inflatory. He absolutely did. Just like Zimbabweans did more recently.
  - captainmuon 9y ago
    Gold is not growing in demand, and is not in the process of being "established". Almost everybody who wants gold already has enough, and people entering the gold market are approximately balanced by people selling gold. People who use gold (e.g. in industry) are supplying themselves at the same rate as they are using it. There is no reason it should continuously go up. Of course my argument doesn't align with what happened in Germany, that is my point. What I am trying to say is what seems at first glance like an overvaluation or a bubble could actually be in-/deflation, or in other words: currency supply and demand. If you assume bitcoin eventually becomes as big as a typical national currency, it is currently even undervalued.

It very obviously is. Nothing can grow at such an insane rate and be a stable, long-lasting thing. No one knows how high it will go, but that it will collapse hard soon is 100% sure.

Rmilb 9y ago

If you are certain it will collapse you can make a lot of money shorting it. If you are 100% sure, there is no downside.

neilwilson 9y ago
Generally the problem with shorting is that the shorts are time limited - because it is a derivative bet, not a proper loan. And following Keynes the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
soneca 9y ago
What financial mechanisms exist to short Bitcoin?
- mancerayder 9y ago
  Here's an idea. Ethereum smart contracts to short bitcoin. You borrow my BTC for 30 days, with a 5% fee. Someone could make a killing off of that idea.
  - colecut 9y ago
    This is more of a general purpose app, but would work. https://gofreakingdoit.com/ https://gofreakingdoit.com/
  - chrdlu 9y ago
    https://medium.com/dydxderivatives/introducing-dydx-2d0f0f326fd https://medium.com/dydxderivatives/introducing-dydx-2d0f0f32... Note: I'm not affiliated with that project, but I did see them present yesterday at Token Summit and it looked very interesting!
- beastlyhotfiyah 9y ago
  I used to short/long bitcoin/eth on GDAX, you have to register as a business and turn on Margin Trading
- alexanat 9y ago
  CME Bitcoin futures
- deleted 9y ago
  [deleted]
- buckthundaz 9y ago
  Possibly at bitmex: https://www.bitmex.com/ https://www.bitmex.com/ CBOE and CME to offer the next couple weeks.
bwanab 9y ago
Maybe you've heard the old finance saying: "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
nodesocket 9y ago
Is there even a US based legit platform to short Bitcoin? If Coinbase was serious about having a true market they would allow you to short Bitcoin as well as buy.
- alexanat 9y ago
  CME is offering bitcoin futures starting next week. Interestingly enough, S. Korea has declared bitcoin futures illegal today and S. Korea is the leading buyer of BTC. Should be a good time.
- beastlyhotfiyah 9y ago
  Coinbase does have a market tho, it's called GDAX, you use your coinbase login and it has margin trading on it. Once I found out about GDAX I never used coinbase again for trading currencies because GDAX has no transaction fees if you are creating the transaction ie. setting up the buy/sell limits

muzani 9y ago

It's technology and it's revolutionary. Both of those things tend to break all known patterns. Look at when corporations were invented or any other major tech revolution. It could well be the first example of something going so high. It's unlikely but I wouldn't say it's 100% sure to crash.

captainmuon 9y ago

> Nothing can grow at such an insane rate and be a stable, long-lasting thing. That sounds like common sense, but common sense is not neccessarily right. Imagine a German in the 1920s looking at the price of US dollars in Reichsmark. That can't be true, $1 for 1000 RM? Now 10000 RM? Nothing can grow at such an insane rate. Surely there is a dollar bubble, and it is going to crash. What our German friend didn't realize was that his own currency was (hyper-)inflatory. USD were not overvaluated, they were stable. The current situation is similar, except instead of our currency being inflatory, the other one is being deflatory - this has the same effect on the exchange rate. It does not neccessarily mean there is tulip fever going on (although, to be honest, I can't disprove that).

akhatri_aus 9y ago
Why aren't scarce resources like gold and oil going up the same way? I think gold made a low this week. Your theory doesn't align with what happened in Germany.
- scrumper 9y ago
  Exactly. That German person could have bought a loaf of bread in the morning for RM1,000 then sold it to his neighbor in the afternoon for RM10,000. There are no citizens in Bitcoinland dealing with inflationary prices in virtual bread. Anything you can buy with Bitcoin is priced in fiat, denominated in BTC at whatever the spot rate of the moment happens to be. EDIT: > What our German friend didn't realize was that his own currency was (hyper-)inflatory. He absolutely did. Just like Zimbabweans did more recently.
- captainmuon 9y ago
  Gold is not growing in demand, and is not in the process of being "established". Almost everybody who wants gold already has enough, and people entering the gold market are approximately balanced by people selling gold. People who use gold (e.g. in industry) are supplying themselves at the same rate as they are using it. There is no reason it should continuously go up. Of course my argument doesn't align with what happened in Germany, that is my point. What I am trying to say is what seems at first glance like an overvaluation or a bubble could actually be in-/deflation, or in other words: currency supply and demand. If you assume bitcoin eventually becomes as big as a typical national currency, it is currently even undervalued.