If the odds of success are anything less than .1, then buying at the current price is a bad idea. I agree with you that the odds are in fact less than .1 but i

If the odds of success are anything less than .1, then buying at the current price is a bad idea. I agree with you that the odds are in fact less than .1 but it's just a guess - if somebody else thinks it's .5, well, who am I to say that they're wrong. Pretty much any investment thesis involves guesswork at some point. That doesn't make investing irrational.