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Excellent article from the same coastal thought-bubble that predicted Clinton's 99% chance of victory. Simpler explanation would be that specialties with the l

Excellent article from the same coastal thought-bubble that predicted Clinton's 99% chance of victory. Simpler explanation would be that specialties with the luxury of centralizing (ex: investment banking, tech, advertising, certain types of law, etc.) typically do--for all of the obvious reasons. edit: And I did not write this as a celebration of her loss or political flamebait. I wrote it to point out that there is a gaping blind spot in the coastal worldview, which has already had severe real-life consequences.

make3 9y ago
I mean, without addressing your empty ad hominem, are you seriously saying the fact that schools suck has nothing to do with service/intellectual jobs moving elsewhere?
- jstewartmobile 9y ago
  Ad hominem is after the person, not the thought bubble. Most of the big places are going after IQ more than anything else. Know plenty of local students and interns who went on to take lucrative jobs at big companies with either a state diploma, or no college at all. I don't believe it is coincidental that so many of the founders in this space are college drop-outs.
  - guelo 9y ago
    Destroy government, cut-off all public investment, destroy all institutions, ban immigrant PhDs, all academic knowledge is fake news anyway, as long as you're pissing off liberals you're doing something right, Make America Great Again by reversing everything that America has done since WW2.
    - jstewartmobile 9y ago
      Where did I say or endorse any of those things? Just because I think the Atlantic article was nearsighted doesn't equal Trump voter.
    - sctb 9y ago
      Could you please stop trolling here? https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
QML 9y ago
Is centralization of resources really needed for a thriving economy though? Germany begs to differ [1]. [1] http://freakonomics.com/podcast/secrets-german-economy-steal/ http://freakonomics.com/podcast/secrets-german-economy-steal...
- jstewartmobile 9y ago
  With the wild-west capitalism we worship and embrace, entropy propels us toward increasing centralization. Gates and Thiel called it clearly, a very long time ago, that most of these markets are natural monopolies (under our system). Not happy about it, and perhaps if we exercised a little sanity like the Europeans, we could reverse the trend. I'm not holding my breath.
  - QML 9y ago
    1. It's more of a coastal thing it seems than a trend of the West (I say that jokingly). 2. Is it capitalism that leads to centralization, or the lack of it? I suppose it's how you define the term -- is it a passive accumulation of capital (like money that just sits in a bank), or is it the active use of money to attempt innovation and generate more wealth? In the latter case, I'd hope to imagine a cycle of continuous disruption and redistribution of capital that prevents centralization. 3. Are monopolies inherently bad? Or is it simply the lack of interoperability (i.e. lack of choices / cost of switching is too high for a consumer)? 4. Reverse the trend. What do you suggest then -- a break-up of tech monopolies? Or maybe forget all about the coasts, and try to emulate the German economy in the Midwest?
    - jstewartmobile 9y ago
      #2) I'd say it's the combo: the interaction of unregulated capitalism and specific types of business that can centralize, or "scale", nicely. Most of the trades are doing quite nicely right now because geography, licensing, and the bespoke nature of their work have somewhat protected them from the tech onslaught. Taxi drivers, not so much. Of course, more/less regulation would raise/lower the bar for what would be scalable. #3) Unregulated monopolies, certainly bad, not as much from a consumer perspective as from one of raw power. I don't really care if I don't have the latest shiniest gadget for the best price. I do care that Bill Gates probably has more say on how my kids are educated than I do. Regulated monopolies are another story. Like the power company, they're subject to far more rules and due process than the tech giants. Google can shut down a paying customer with impunity. Power company has to honor a process even for customers that are late on their bill. I like that aspect, but then there's the regulatory capture, so... Even under Obama, who is supposed to be the "liberal" guy, we had the "Holder Doctrine" of let's not enforce the law too hard if it costs US megacorps any money. This will probably have to get worse before it gets better. #4) I have no silver bullets. I was just disappointed that the top comment dismissed an entire region as a victim of its own foolishness, making little mention of all the other externalities, of which there are many. Thanks for hearing me out. Do you have any silver bullets?
heartbreak 9y ago
> Excellent article from the same coastal thought-bubble that predicted Clinton's 99% chance of victory. Not wrong though, eh?
huherto 9y ago
538 predicted Trump chances of winning with 30%, which is a huge number. Clearly we are living in one of those timelines. I think people failed to interpret what that 30% meant. Edit: I am reading the rest of your comments which are very insightful.
- jstewartmobile 9y ago
  Thanks huherto! I made bets on the outcome, but did not collect figuring that it would be ill-gotten gain and bad karma. If our city people had to hang out with their in-laws in Appalachia for a month every year, they would have seen it just as clearly.

make3 9y ago

I mean, without addressing your empty ad hominem, are you seriously saying the fact that schools suck has nothing to do with service/intellectual jobs moving elsewhere?

jstewartmobile 9y ago
Ad hominem is after the person, not the thought bubble. Most of the big places are going after IQ more than anything else. Know plenty of local students and interns who went on to take lucrative jobs at big companies with either a state diploma, or no college at all. I don't believe it is coincidental that so many of the founders in this space are college drop-outs.
- guelo 9y ago
  Destroy government, cut-off all public investment, destroy all institutions, ban immigrant PhDs, all academic knowledge is fake news anyway, as long as you're pissing off liberals you're doing something right, Make America Great Again by reversing everything that America has done since WW2.
  - jstewartmobile 9y ago
    Where did I say or endorse any of those things? Just because I think the Atlantic article was nearsighted doesn't equal Trump voter.
  - sctb 9y ago
    Could you please stop trolling here? https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

QML 9y ago

Is centralization of resources really needed for a thriving economy though? Germany begs to differ [1]. [1] http://freakonomics.com/podcast/secrets-german-economy-steal/ http://freakonomics.com/podcast/secrets-german-economy-steal...

jstewartmobile 9y ago
With the wild-west capitalism we worship and embrace, entropy propels us toward increasing centralization. Gates and Thiel called it clearly, a very long time ago, that most of these markets are natural monopolies (under our system). Not happy about it, and perhaps if we exercised a little sanity like the Europeans, we could reverse the trend. I'm not holding my breath.
- QML 9y ago
  1. It's more of a coastal thing it seems than a trend of the West (I say that jokingly). 2. Is it capitalism that leads to centralization, or the lack of it? I suppose it's how you define the term -- is it a passive accumulation of capital (like money that just sits in a bank), or is it the active use of money to attempt innovation and generate more wealth? In the latter case, I'd hope to imagine a cycle of continuous disruption and redistribution of capital that prevents centralization. 3. Are monopolies inherently bad? Or is it simply the lack of interoperability (i.e. lack of choices / cost of switching is too high for a consumer)? 4. Reverse the trend. What do you suggest then -- a break-up of tech monopolies? Or maybe forget all about the coasts, and try to emulate the German economy in the Midwest?
  - jstewartmobile 9y ago
    #2) I'd say it's the combo: the interaction of unregulated capitalism and specific types of business that can centralize, or "scale", nicely. Most of the trades are doing quite nicely right now because geography, licensing, and the bespoke nature of their work have somewhat protected them from the tech onslaught. Taxi drivers, not so much. Of course, more/less regulation would raise/lower the bar for what would be scalable. #3) Unregulated monopolies, certainly bad, not as much from a consumer perspective as from one of raw power. I don't really care if I don't have the latest shiniest gadget for the best price. I do care that Bill Gates probably has more say on how my kids are educated than I do. Regulated monopolies are another story. Like the power company, they're subject to far more rules and due process than the tech giants. Google can shut down a paying customer with impunity. Power company has to honor a process even for customers that are late on their bill. I like that aspect, but then there's the regulatory capture, so... Even under Obama, who is supposed to be the "liberal" guy, we had the "Holder Doctrine" of let's not enforce the law too hard if it costs US megacorps any money. This will probably have to get worse before it gets better. #4) I have no silver bullets. I was just disappointed that the top comment dismissed an entire region as a victim of its own foolishness, making little mention of all the other externalities, of which there are many. Thanks for hearing me out. Do you have any silver bullets?

heartbreak 9y ago

> Excellent article from the same coastal thought-bubble that predicted Clinton's 99% chance of victory. Not wrong though, eh?

huherto 9y ago

538 predicted Trump chances of winning with 30%, which is a huge number. Clearly we are living in one of those timelines. I think people failed to interpret what that 30% meant. Edit: I am reading the rest of your comments which are very insightful.

jstewartmobile 9y ago
Thanks huherto! I made bets on the outcome, but did not collect figuring that it would be ill-gotten gain and bad karma. If our city people had to hang out with their in-laws in Appalachia for a month every year, they would have seen it just as clearly.