My thoughts on Bitcoin futures at CBOE and CME: - Unlike LedgerX, the futures will settle in cash, NOT in Bitcoin. So they won't directly create demand for mo

My thoughts on Bitcoin futures at CBOE and CME: - Unlike LedgerX, the futures will settle in cash, NOT in Bitcoin. So they won't directly create demand for more Bitcoin. - In effect this is a "bookie pool" for institutions to place side-bets on bitcoin. Although there might be some consumer participation - I reached out to several CME brokers and at least two of them, NinjaTrader (US) and RBC (Canada), intend to provide the futures product to their retail investors (pending internal review). - Biggest customers will probably be institutions who want to short (bet against) Bitcoin, and those who want to establish a long position (bet in favor of it) but are prevented from buying bitcoin directly (due to regulations, security / handling concerns, etc). You would think the CME trade throttling rules in particular would make buying the asset directly a more attractive option for those who want to go long and have access to other marketplaces (i.e. existing exchanges). For that reason, after the initial "rush" to get in, I think there's a risk the CBOE and CME markets will tend to attract more "shorters" than "longers". - Naked shorts (placing short orders for assets you don't have and don't intend to buy) are an interesting aspect which I don't fully understand. I think the practice is illegal in US securities, although one of the exchanges from which the CME price index will be derived (Kraken) apparently already allows naked shorts (surprised that didn't catch the eye of regulators). - A lot of the money in Bitcoin today is retail. Are those folks ideological, or easily spooked? (Probably a mix). What happens if folks start seeing red futures around the corner? Is there a risk the futures indices (with their more-disciplined institutional money) will start leading (rather than following) the Bitcoin price? While I'm excited by this development (obviously a lot of great PR) I'm concerned there might be risk of it backfiring compared to the overly optimistic expectations I've been reading from existing Bitcoin holders. I really do hope it paves the way to ETF's (where you actually buy a basket of Bitcoin) - something I'd be a lot more excited for. In the meantime, here's hoping my cautious skepticism is unwarranted. There's some good discussion over at Quora: https://www.quora.com/How-will-futures-trading-on-CME-affect-the-Bitcoin-price https://www.quora.com/How-will-futures-trading-on-CME-affect...