Having worked a little bit on #2, even for relatively common conditions, stochasticity still plays a major role in outcomes. For example, I have a simple model

Having worked a little bit on #2, even for relatively common conditions, stochasticity still plays a major role in outcomes. For example, I have a simple model that ends up showing that an ICU doing everything it's supposed to do (patient isolation, high hand hygiene compliance, perfect diagnosis, etc.) can have a four-fold difference in MRSA infections over a year by chance alone.