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No real comment on anything you've written (which seems a good reply to me). Right, I think it could be quite expensive to insure. My point is that if you are
by logicallee 9y ago
No real comment on anything you've written (which seems a good reply to me). Right, I think it could be quite expensive to insure. My point is that if you are investing $10 million into bitcoin today you will likely make a great return by Dec' 2021 if you actually spend literally $6 million of that (60%) on insurance that pays out only if it goes to less than 10% of its current price or gets stolen from you. So out of $10 million invested, only $4 million makes it into your position * 5x = $20 million, or 2x return over 4 years for an 18.9% year over year return. (1.189^4 = 2, i.e. the left side is the compound interest formula.)
I also have perhaps these two quite minor points,
- Why do you say gold is stable? (You write "the appeal of gold is that it's a hard asset and it's stable"). Here is its real price over just the past 10 years: https://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au3650nyb.html https://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au3650nyb.html - doesn't seem particularly stable to me. It seems more likely that the appeal of gold is 1) its historical use, and general acceptance as value, and 2) its inherent scarcity, i.e. its value reflects its scarcity.
- Also you say bitcoin would "reflect inflation" - but where do you think inflation comes from? Wikipedia says it's just a direct effect of an increase in the money supply, but bitcoin doesn't have such a mechanism.