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Sounds like a classic case of overfitting training data. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as an asset class is so nascent that I wouldn't be making any significant be
by jjxw 9y ago
Sounds like a classic case of overfitting training data. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as an asset class is so nascent that I wouldn't be making any significant bets on what the algorithm outputs even if the cross validation is good.
As with all investing claims, the pertinent question to ask is "if this works so well, why are you spending time marketing your method instead of making boatloads of money using this system you developed?"
- everdev 9y agoExactly. Markets adjust to information, so even if the algorithm was somehow accurate, people acting on the information will correct the market. And at some point it may even become self-reinforcing if enough people buy into this "black box" that can predict the price of Bitcoin.
- travmatt 9y agoI went to a tech conference this past year, one of the talks was regarding machine learning and investing. I remember the speaker being distinctly negative on the ability of machine learning to predict prices accurately such that his firm could make money. He was much more optimistic about using machine learning to understand the forces that driving prices