That sounds right because it's clear that the 1-year estimate lacks understanding and forethought. If you start a project with that large of a swagged estimate,

That sounds right because it's clear that the 1-year estimate lacks understanding and forethought. If you start a project with that large of a swagged estimate, it mostly won't ever be completed. The only way I'd even consider an estimate that large to have any basis in reality is if it was 1 year, 2 months, 6 days and 4 hours. That would mean the estimate is composed of many smaller estimates for tasks that are much closer to being understood. Large projects can always be broken down into smaller, more well-understood tasks. You can't build something large all at once. Large estimates are just an indication of a lack of discipline in planning because they mean that the project hasn't been decomposed into its constituent tasks. Large estimates are lazy and can only be right out of sheer luck. In the team's I manage, I don't let anyone start a story with an estimate of more than two days.