3 ms·

>Is there anything that can be done to improve the situation? Yes, but it's all the things that "coastal elites" don't want to hear. The first two topics of c

>Is there anything that can be done to improve the situation? Yes, but it's all the things that "coastal elites" don't want to hear. The first two topics of conversation would likely be about trade and immigration policy. But it's hard to talk about either without being shouted down as xenophobic or racist. It's worth noting that Obama ran on a platform to renegotiate NAFTA during his first primary.

pjc50 9y ago
What evidence is there that protectionism and further raising of the immigration barrier would actually solve any of these problems?
- Consultant32452 9y ago
  Yes. The immigration barrier is simply supply and demand. Just as the H1Bs have been used to keep the wages of the American middle class down, so has the open floodgates of illegal immigration kept the wages of poor Americans down. With regards to protectionism I don't know what more evidence you could need aside from the changes to the US economy brought on by NAFTA, which were all predicted. It's been fine for the economy as a whole, but we're not talking about things like the GDP. We're talking about the economic well-being of the people who used to manufacture things in the US. Watch carefully, because that is the sleight of hand that unrelentingly responds to any talk of protectionism. They talk about sound economic theory about how protectionism impacts things like GDP. Not the topic at hand.
  - scarface74 9y ago
    There are only 85000 H1B Visas allowed each year. There are about 3.5 to 4 million developers in the US. If all of the H1B Visas allowed in the country were developers, it really couldn't depress wages that much. As far as reigning in illegal immigration, there have been reports all across the country that farmers are losing money because they can't find enough people at any price who are willing to do farm work since the crackdown.
    - Consultant32452 9y ago
      >There are only 85000 H1B Visas allowed each year. 85,000 NEW H1Bs are issued each year, they last 3 years and can be extended for another 3. So right off the bat that's as many as half a million. There is no issue limit on H1Bs for universities and non-profits. In 2012 alone, for example, the total number of H1Bs (normal + university/non-profit) issued was 135,530. It's safe to say there are far more than 85,000 H1Bs in the US. >because they can't find enough people at any price who are willing to do farm work since the crackdown. I suspect their definition of "any price" is very different than mine.
      - scarface74 9y ago
        At any price that they could still harvest the food and sell it at a price that people would be willing to buy the food.
        Consultant32452 9y ago
        I suspect the consumers will get over it once hunger sets in. I'm not really sympathetic to the consumers who may lose access to artificially low pricing subsidized by policies intending to keep wages low amongst the poorest people in our country.
        scarface74 9y ago
        Poor people already often can't afford healthy food. What do you think happens when food prices go up because farmers have to pay 5x as much to attract labor? Yes there are farmers who are offering five times as much and still can't find reliable labor. On the other hand, I'm sure overprocessed sodium filled food and fast food will become a lot more attractive than even what it is today.
        Consultant32452 9y ago
        >Poor people already often can't afford healthy food. That's a serious problem, if only there was some way to raise their wages. >farmers have to pay 5x as much to attract labor Yep, there it is. Some of those poor people will transition to these new higher wages in farming. This will reduce labor supply in other sectors which will push wages up across the board. Rinse and repeat for other industries full of illegal immigrants: construction, maid services, etc.
- notyourday 9y ago
  I'm going to presume that your family has a combined income of 100k or more. Lets engage in a very simple intellectual exercise: remove all immigration restrictions and all protections that we have. Do you believe that a) your family in a short term would be better off/not different/the worse off? b) your family in a long term would be better off/not different worse off?
  - pjc50 9y ago
    Well, the first is false and the idea of removing all restrictions was not under suggestion, so I don't see how this is relevant?
    - notyourday 9y ago
      Ok, so we agree that some restrictions on immigration must exist?
  - Consultant32452 9y ago
    I'm not the person you asked, but I'll give it a shot. In the short term I think I would be much better off. I don't believe enough people who can compete with me economically would be all that interested in coming here, and/or them coming here doesn't improve their ability to compete with me. However, I'd be able to hire poor people for slave-like wages to perform all sorts of odd jobs for me around the house. I'd have a maid, etc. In the long term I would be much worse off. The influx of poor people from other nations would completely overrun our public infrastructure: public schools, welfare programs, etc. The reason why illegal immigration "works" for the upper-middle and upper class is because it's illegal. My taxes would have to go through the roof to pay for all of this.
    - notyourday 9y ago
      > In the short term I think I would be much better off. I don't believe enough people who can compete with me economically would be all that interested in coming here, and/or them coming here doesn't improve their ability to compete with me. This is where I fundamentally disagree - every single developer in the US making US salaries will lose to eastern european/Indian/Chinese developer moving to the US because they will accept lower salary. Not much lower, but 20-30% lower because for them it would be amazing increase in their quality of life.

pjc50 9y ago

What evidence is there that protectionism and further raising of the immigration barrier would actually solve any of these problems?

Consultant32452 9y ago
Yes. The immigration barrier is simply supply and demand. Just as the H1Bs have been used to keep the wages of the American middle class down, so has the open floodgates of illegal immigration kept the wages of poor Americans down. With regards to protectionism I don't know what more evidence you could need aside from the changes to the US economy brought on by NAFTA, which were all predicted. It's been fine for the economy as a whole, but we're not talking about things like the GDP. We're talking about the economic well-being of the people who used to manufacture things in the US. Watch carefully, because that is the sleight of hand that unrelentingly responds to any talk of protectionism. They talk about sound economic theory about how protectionism impacts things like GDP. Not the topic at hand.
- scarface74 9y ago
  There are only 85000 H1B Visas allowed each year. There are about 3.5 to 4 million developers in the US. If all of the H1B Visas allowed in the country were developers, it really couldn't depress wages that much. As far as reigning in illegal immigration, there have been reports all across the country that farmers are losing money because they can't find enough people at any price who are willing to do farm work since the crackdown.
  - Consultant32452 9y ago
    >There are only 85000 H1B Visas allowed each year. 85,000 NEW H1Bs are issued each year, they last 3 years and can be extended for another 3. So right off the bat that's as many as half a million. There is no issue limit on H1Bs for universities and non-profits. In 2012 alone, for example, the total number of H1Bs (normal + university/non-profit) issued was 135,530. It's safe to say there are far more than 85,000 H1Bs in the US. >because they can't find enough people at any price who are willing to do farm work since the crackdown. I suspect their definition of "any price" is very different than mine.
    - scarface74 9y ago
      At any price that they could still harvest the food and sell it at a price that people would be willing to buy the food.
      - Consultant32452 9y ago
        I suspect the consumers will get over it once hunger sets in. I'm not really sympathetic to the consumers who may lose access to artificially low pricing subsidized by policies intending to keep wages low amongst the poorest people in our country.
        scarface74 9y ago
        Poor people already often can't afford healthy food. What do you think happens when food prices go up because farmers have to pay 5x as much to attract labor? Yes there are farmers who are offering five times as much and still can't find reliable labor. On the other hand, I'm sure overprocessed sodium filled food and fast food will become a lot more attractive than even what it is today.
        Consultant32452 9y ago
        >Poor people already often can't afford healthy food. That's a serious problem, if only there was some way to raise their wages. >farmers have to pay 5x as much to attract labor Yep, there it is. Some of those poor people will transition to these new higher wages in farming. This will reduce labor supply in other sectors which will push wages up across the board. Rinse and repeat for other industries full of illegal immigrants: construction, maid services, etc.
notyourday 9y ago
I'm going to presume that your family has a combined income of 100k or more. Lets engage in a very simple intellectual exercise: remove all immigration restrictions and all protections that we have. Do you believe that a) your family in a short term would be better off/not different/the worse off? b) your family in a long term would be better off/not different worse off?
- pjc50 9y ago
  Well, the first is false and the idea of removing all restrictions was not under suggestion, so I don't see how this is relevant?
  - notyourday 9y ago
    Ok, so we agree that some restrictions on immigration must exist?
- Consultant32452 9y ago
  I'm not the person you asked, but I'll give it a shot. In the short term I think I would be much better off. I don't believe enough people who can compete with me economically would be all that interested in coming here, and/or them coming here doesn't improve their ability to compete with me. However, I'd be able to hire poor people for slave-like wages to perform all sorts of odd jobs for me around the house. I'd have a maid, etc. In the long term I would be much worse off. The influx of poor people from other nations would completely overrun our public infrastructure: public schools, welfare programs, etc. The reason why illegal immigration "works" for the upper-middle and upper class is because it's illegal. My taxes would have to go through the roof to pay for all of this.
  - notyourday 9y ago
    > In the short term I think I would be much better off. I don't believe enough people who can compete with me economically would be all that interested in coming here, and/or them coming here doesn't improve their ability to compete with me. This is where I fundamentally disagree - every single developer in the US making US salaries will lose to eastern european/Indian/Chinese developer moving to the US because they will accept lower salary. Not much lower, but 20-30% lower because for them it would be amazing increase in their quality of life.