4 ms·

Or....it was a hair-brained move, but it happened to turn out well for them, and now you're succumbing to post-fact rationalisation bias that rich gamblers who

Or....it was a hair-brained move, but it happened to turn out well for them, and now you're succumbing to post-fact rationalisation bias that rich gamblers who get a payout at a point in time actually know what they're doing... Edit: ironically?, the fact that most people partake in this bias actually increases such people's likelihood of being successful in the future.

ramzyo 9y ago
Could be, but a re-evaluation of my past harsh assumptions felt more constructive than further writing them off in my head as inept. I don’t know how many others are out there that I can say originated the idea for Facebook (at least in its Harvard-only original form) AND were early to get involved big with Bitcoin (and now, at least on paper, are billionaires because of that insight/luck/combo whatever).
meowface 9y ago
Or it was neither a brilliant nor a hair-brained move and was a reasonably calculated risk which paid off likely due to a mix of luck and prescience? There were many reasonable, intelligent people out there who weren't blinded by the anarchy/libertarian hype and yet still speculated Bitcoin's price would skyrocket based on rational predictions and bets. The fact that these guys were partly on the ground floor for the rise of one of the most influential tech companies in the world and very much on the ground floor for one of the (so far) highest ROI assets and biggest technological advances (practical blockchain, consensus, and cryptocurrency tech; not Bitcoin in particular) of the past 50 years shows that at the very least they're probably not bozo meatheads in the way Sorkin and Fincher portrayed them (as entertaining as the movie was).
- NoahWebster 9y ago
  Folks, the word is spelled harebrained.
  - jlgaddis 9y ago
    I'm impressed that you created a new account to contribute to the conversation with such a substantive, thought-prevoking comment.
    - boulos 9y ago
      All sorts of things push people over the edge to finally make an account :). While it's true that his comment doesn't add much to the discourse, there probably are lots of folks that never realized that it's referring to a hare. Your comment though is approximately an attack on a person who finally took the time to create an account only to get downvoted. A downvote is discouragement enough; no need to reiterate.
    - mayankkaizen 9y ago
      To be honest, if not for this comment, I would have learned something wrong today. PS - English isn't my first language.
    - FairDune 9y ago
      It's "thought-provoking", not "thought-prevoking".
      - jlgaddis 9y ago
        Thank you, Merriam-Webster.
        NoahWebster 9y ago
        The name's Noah.
  - meowface 9y ago
    Thanks. I was so used to seeing hairbrained that I assumed it was the correct spelling.
koonsolo 9y ago
If you put all of your savings into Bitcoin, it is a stupid move, no matter what the outcome was. You might look smart now, but you really weren't. If you knew about bitcoin in the early days (<$1000), it was a good move to invest a small percentage into this high risk, huge potential payoff, no matter what the outcome would be. Considering the history of these twins, I think they are better at calculating risks and potential payoffs than most of us here.
- FabHK 9y ago
  > they are better at calculating risks and potential payoffs than most of us here. They also have more play money to throw at risky ventures, and the connections to hear about them early
  - koonsolo 9y ago
    In the case of Bitcoin, that is a really cheap shot. Most of us here are in tech, and I found out about Bitcoin when it was at $1. (which was already late according to some). And about the play money, I hope everyone here has $50 that they would not miss that much if it would suddenly disappear. Buy $1 bitcoins for $50. You do the math.

ramzyo 9y ago

Could be, but a re-evaluation of my past harsh assumptions felt more constructive than further writing them off in my head as inept. I don’t know how many others are out there that I can say originated the idea for Facebook (at least in its Harvard-only original form) AND were early to get involved big with Bitcoin (and now, at least on paper, are billionaires because of that insight/luck/combo whatever).

meowface 9y ago

Or it was neither a brilliant nor a hair-brained move and was a reasonably calculated risk which paid off likely due to a mix of luck and prescience? There were many reasonable, intelligent people out there who weren't blinded by the anarchy/libertarian hype and yet still speculated Bitcoin's price would skyrocket based on rational predictions and bets. The fact that these guys were partly on the ground floor for the rise of one of the most influential tech companies in the world and very much on the ground floor for one of the (so far) highest ROI assets and biggest technological advances (practical blockchain, consensus, and cryptocurrency tech; not Bitcoin in particular) of the past 50 years shows that at the very least they're probably not bozo meatheads in the way Sorkin and Fincher portrayed them (as entertaining as the movie was).

NoahWebster 9y ago
Folks, the word is spelled harebrained.
- jlgaddis 9y ago
  I'm impressed that you created a new account to contribute to the conversation with such a substantive, thought-prevoking comment.
  - boulos 9y ago
    All sorts of things push people over the edge to finally make an account :). While it's true that his comment doesn't add much to the discourse, there probably are lots of folks that never realized that it's referring to a hare. Your comment though is approximately an attack on a person who finally took the time to create an account only to get downvoted. A downvote is discouragement enough; no need to reiterate.
  - mayankkaizen 9y ago
    To be honest, if not for this comment, I would have learned something wrong today. PS - English isn't my first language.
  - FairDune 9y ago
    It's "thought-provoking", not "thought-prevoking".
    - jlgaddis 9y ago
      Thank you, Merriam-Webster.
      - NoahWebster 9y ago
        The name's Noah.
- meowface 9y ago
  Thanks. I was so used to seeing hairbrained that I assumed it was the correct spelling.

koonsolo 9y ago

If you put all of your savings into Bitcoin, it is a stupid move, no matter what the outcome was. You might look smart now, but you really weren't. If you knew about bitcoin in the early days (<$1000), it was a good move to invest a small percentage into this high risk, huge potential payoff, no matter what the outcome would be. Considering the history of these twins, I think they are better at calculating risks and potential payoffs than most of us here.

FabHK 9y ago
> they are better at calculating risks and potential payoffs than most of us here. They also have more play money to throw at risky ventures, and the connections to hear about them early
- koonsolo 9y ago
  In the case of Bitcoin, that is a really cheap shot. Most of us here are in tech, and I found out about Bitcoin when it was at $1. (which was already late according to some). And about the play money, I hope everyone here has $50 that they would not miss that much if it would suddenly disappear. Buy $1 bitcoins for $50. You do the math.