I think that the grad student tax would increase the number of grad students. If the tax increase goes through, universities will probably respond my significa

I think that the grad student tax would increase the number of grad students. If the tax increase goes through, universities will probably respond my significantly increasing "indirects" and decreasing tuition. They could twiddle the numbers so that the university still makes the same average off of every grant, and students take homes don't change at all. But there would be in important difference: from a PI's perspective, grad students would be relatively cheaper. Paradoxically, taxing tuition may have the net effect of creating more grad student positions (while decreasing the spend on capital investments).