5 ms·

Nicholas Negroponte: The Physical Book Is Dead In 5 Years

13 points by phreeza 16y ago

snitko 16y ago
I have a question though. Suppose I wrote a book. How do I start promoting and selling it? How do I put a kindle version of it on Amazon?
- c1sc0 16y ago
  Ther's a book called "Publish on Amazon Kindle with the Digital Text Platform"
greenlblue 16y ago
Not hard to believe at all. Digital will be the norm and print on demand will be the fallback.
jleyank 16y ago
Used book market... Until there is a reliable, easy way to resell e-books, they'll be limited to books with short half-lives, magazines, summer trash-reading and the like. I guess this should be expanded to transfer and/or resell, given the short lives of the devices themselves.
robryan 16y ago
Personally I don't see myself reading more ebooks than printed ones in 5 years time. Sure they may end up selling my ebooks than physical ones, although I hate how overused the word dead is when referring to technologies. Dead to me is there is no market at all, dead is no bookshops in shopping centres. It could happen, I just don't see it, from my viewpoint public perception is that they are a great addition but not a replacement.
- snitko 16y ago
  I don't see any reason for printed books to exist anymore. They're more expensive to produce, they are not environmental friendly and it takes time to go out and buy them or to deliver them. I think it's almost the same as with printed photographs. Can you find anyone using them today? That would be a challenge. Sure older people like to sniff paper and are somewhat sentimental about printed books. Hell, even I like to touch printed book with a nice cover. But that's just an illusion and the truth is that printed books do not add anything (and maybe even subtract) from the reading experience.
  - c1sc0 16y ago
    What about long-term preservation of knowledge. As far as I know a well-printed and maintained book lasts a long time. Are you confident that future archaeologists will be able to read Kindle files 500 years in the future? 1000? 2000?
    - StavrosK 16y ago
      We can't get our shit together long enough to stop destroying the planet, do you think we'll care if people will be able to read our books 2000 years later?
      - c1sc0 16y ago
        That's what people were thinking around the year 1000 ... "OMFG the antichrist is coming, the end is near". Sure, civilizations disappear, maybe we'll manage to reduce world population to 1/100th of the current population. But disappear outright? I'm more confident in the resilience of homo sapiens than that. And given this, we owe it to future generations to at least think about these issues.
        StavrosK 16y ago
        My point wasn't that we'll disappear, it was that there are more pressing concerns to address...
    - c1sc0 16y ago
      Stavrosk: that's what people were thinking around the year 1000 ... "OMFG the antichrist is coming, the end is near". Sure, civilizations disappear, maybe we'll manage to reduce world population to 1/100th of the current population. But disappear outright? I'm more confident in the resilience of homo sapiens than that.
    - snitko 16y ago
      If we start thinking about what archaeologists will be able to find after us, then I think we're probably done.
jakarta 16y ago
I think printed books and bookstores more broadly will end up like vinyl record stores. They still exist, the medium is still produced, but the number of retailers are far fewer in number. These shifts tend to take longer than most pundits say. I could see 8-10 years being a more likely estimate.
- seanalltogether 16y ago
  I'm trying to remember who wrote it, but there was an assertion that as our lives become more digital, the physical will becomes more valuable.
  - chanakya 16y ago
    Just like hand-crafted, well-made old furniture is more valuable than the superstore variety. It's just that the number of people who value it at that level is pretty small. Not enough people care about aesthetics, and for practical purposes, it's disappeared.
c1sc0 16y ago
If by 'dead' you mean like polaroid is 'dead', then I agree. (Someone independently re-started polaroid film manufacturing after Polaroid shut it down.) The physical book has too many fans for it to be left to die. I can believe that ebook sales will soon surpass physical book sales. I got the Kindle app installed on my iPad & I've spent more on books in a few weeks than I previously did in a whole year combined.
patrickgzill 16y ago
Portable high resolution color displays might do the trick. How exactly would a fine art book, or even Tufte's books on visually presenting data, look good on a current Kindle?
- zandorg 16y ago
  But the Kindle's screen is friendly on battery life, as it takes no power to refresh - it's static.
  - patrickgzill 16y ago
    They have been working on color e-ink displays, though at the moment it is at the prototype/lab created stage.
gaius 16y ago
Is Negroponte still banging on? And is anyone listening? He was wrong all through the 90s and he's wrong now. And I say that as a proud iPad owner!
dmoney 16y ago
By "dead," he of course doesn’t mean completely dead. So don't say dead. As a reader, I hope paper books are always available. They are much more enjoyable to read. Maybe it's just because I spend so much time on a computer, but it's nice to read something without a device attached. A paper book is a real thing. It's crafted. E-books seem to have many more typos and bugs. The only bugs in paper books are the kind with legs. Paper books have a user interface that does exactly what you intend: turn the page, insert a bookmark, make a highlight if that's your thing. With the kindle I always have to worry about if it thinks I mean what I think I mean when I press the back button. E-books are based on software, and software's natural state is to suck. I don't have to worry about my codices running out of power. Also, devices are expensive. I don't have to worry about most codices getting stolen if I take them out in public. I have to be careful with my Kindle. When we have cheap, disposable e-readers, paper books might be in danger, but until then I think they're fine.
julius_geezer 16y ago
How is OLPC going? I had the impression that it had turned more or less into a dead end. The paper book has its problems. A lot of those printed from the late 1800s on used acid-pulped paper, which become brittle and disintegrates. On the other hand one has to wonder about electronic publishers commitment to maintaining usable formats.
adulau 16y ago
I like those futurologist statements especially when this has a tendency to become a funny quote in the future. Maybe physical book and electronic book will merge in something new that is not defined. Maybe it will be a luxury to own some books (it's already the case in many countries) or to have a "decent" bookshelf. I don't know. The only thing I know, until now, is the easiness to share books with your neighbors or resell or swap them. With electronic books, we are still far away except on planets like "Library Genesis".
pramit 16y ago
That is why I provide The Success Manual, (summaries of 100+ greatest business and self-help books) only in digital format. http://thesuccessmanual.bighow.com http://thesuccessmanual.bighow.com
pasbesoin 16y ago
Here's what I want: Better display. Higher resolution, color fidelity, reflective or responsive/respective of ambient light levels. A screen that can simultaneously display enough pages/books to occupy/correspond to my immediate, working memory (5-7, maybe a few more for the young/bright). Immediate responsiveness and a graphical paradigm that need not seek to exactly mimic a real world setting, yet sufficiently replicates and triggers my sense of spacial orientation to take advantage of same (I left the book with that reference face down on the chair, and the other reference I need is at the 3rd or 4th bookmark in the one with the green cover.) Electronic/automated search and discovery. Real ownership (no magic DRM "disappearances") including the ability to transfer (including lending) at will. Longer term, for especially solo consumption of electronic media, I think we're looking at heads up, imaging glasses and contacts. Until they start installing the sockets in our craniums.

13 points by phreeza 16y ago

I have a question though. Suppose I wrote a book. How do I start promoting and selling it? How do I put a kindle version of it on Amazon?

c1sc0 16y ago
Ther's a book called "Publish on Amazon Kindle with the Digital Text Platform"

greenlblue 16y ago

Not hard to believe at all. Digital will be the norm and print on demand will be the fallback.

jleyank 16y ago

Used book market... Until there is a reliable, easy way to resell e-books, they'll be limited to books with short half-lives, magazines, summer trash-reading and the like. I guess this should be expanded to transfer and/or resell, given the short lives of the devices themselves.

robryan 16y ago

Personally I don't see myself reading more ebooks than printed ones in 5 years time. Sure they may end up selling my ebooks than physical ones, although I hate how overused the word dead is when referring to technologies. Dead to me is there is no market at all, dead is no bookshops in shopping centres. It could happen, I just don't see it, from my viewpoint public perception is that they are a great addition but not a replacement.

snitko 16y ago
I don't see any reason for printed books to exist anymore. They're more expensive to produce, they are not environmental friendly and it takes time to go out and buy them or to deliver them. I think it's almost the same as with printed photographs. Can you find anyone using them today? That would be a challenge. Sure older people like to sniff paper and are somewhat sentimental about printed books. Hell, even I like to touch printed book with a nice cover. But that's just an illusion and the truth is that printed books do not add anything (and maybe even subtract) from the reading experience.
- c1sc0 16y ago
  What about long-term preservation of knowledge. As far as I know a well-printed and maintained book lasts a long time. Are you confident that future archaeologists will be able to read Kindle files 500 years in the future? 1000? 2000?
  - StavrosK 16y ago
    We can't get our shit together long enough to stop destroying the planet, do you think we'll care if people will be able to read our books 2000 years later?
    - c1sc0 16y ago
      That's what people were thinking around the year 1000 ... "OMFG the antichrist is coming, the end is near". Sure, civilizations disappear, maybe we'll manage to reduce world population to 1/100th of the current population. But disappear outright? I'm more confident in the resilience of homo sapiens than that. And given this, we owe it to future generations to at least think about these issues.
      - StavrosK 16y ago
        My point wasn't that we'll disappear, it was that there are more pressing concerns to address...
  - c1sc0 16y ago
    Stavrosk: that's what people were thinking around the year 1000 ... "OMFG the antichrist is coming, the end is near". Sure, civilizations disappear, maybe we'll manage to reduce world population to 1/100th of the current population. But disappear outright? I'm more confident in the resilience of homo sapiens than that.
  - snitko 16y ago
    If we start thinking about what archaeologists will be able to find after us, then I think we're probably done.

jakarta 16y ago

I think printed books and bookstores more broadly will end up like vinyl record stores. They still exist, the medium is still produced, but the number of retailers are far fewer in number. These shifts tend to take longer than most pundits say. I could see 8-10 years being a more likely estimate.

seanalltogether 16y ago
I'm trying to remember who wrote it, but there was an assertion that as our lives become more digital, the physical will becomes more valuable.
- chanakya 16y ago
  Just like hand-crafted, well-made old furniture is more valuable than the superstore variety. It's just that the number of people who value it at that level is pretty small. Not enough people care about aesthetics, and for practical purposes, it's disappeared.

c1sc0 16y ago

If by 'dead' you mean like polaroid is 'dead', then I agree. (Someone independently re-started polaroid film manufacturing after Polaroid shut it down.) The physical book has too many fans for it to be left to die. I can believe that ebook sales will soon surpass physical book sales. I got the Kindle app installed on my iPad & I've spent more on books in a few weeks than I previously did in a whole year combined.

patrickgzill 16y ago

Portable high resolution color displays might do the trick. How exactly would a fine art book, or even Tufte's books on visually presenting data, look good on a current Kindle?

zandorg 16y ago
But the Kindle's screen is friendly on battery life, as it takes no power to refresh - it's static.
- patrickgzill 16y ago
  They have been working on color e-ink displays, though at the moment it is at the prototype/lab created stage.

gaius 16y ago

Is Negroponte still banging on? And is anyone listening? He was wrong all through the 90s and he's wrong now. And I say that as a proud iPad owner!

dmoney 16y ago

By "dead," he of course doesn’t mean completely dead. So don't say dead. As a reader, I hope paper books are always available. They are much more enjoyable to read. Maybe it's just because I spend so much time on a computer, but it's nice to read something without a device attached. A paper book is a real thing. It's crafted. E-books seem to have many more typos and bugs. The only bugs in paper books are the kind with legs. Paper books have a user interface that does exactly what you intend: turn the page, insert a bookmark, make a highlight if that's your thing. With the kindle I always have to worry about if it thinks I mean what I think I mean when I press the back button. E-books are based on software, and software's natural state is to suck. I don't have to worry about my codices running out of power. Also, devices are expensive. I don't have to worry about most codices getting stolen if I take them out in public. I have to be careful with my Kindle. When we have cheap, disposable e-readers, paper books might be in danger, but until then I think they're fine.

julius_geezer 16y ago

How is OLPC going? I had the impression that it had turned more or less into a dead end. The paper book has its problems. A lot of those printed from the late 1800s on used acid-pulped paper, which become brittle and disintegrates. On the other hand one has to wonder about electronic publishers commitment to maintaining usable formats.

adulau 16y ago

I like those futurologist statements especially when this has a tendency to become a funny quote in the future. Maybe physical book and electronic book will merge in something new that is not defined. Maybe it will be a luxury to own some books (it's already the case in many countries) or to have a "decent" bookshelf. I don't know. The only thing I know, until now, is the easiness to share books with your neighbors or resell or swap them. With electronic books, we are still far away except on planets like "Library Genesis".

pramit 16y ago

That is why I provide The Success Manual, (summaries of 100+ greatest business and self-help books) only in digital format. http://thesuccessmanual.bighow.com http://thesuccessmanual.bighow.com

pasbesoin 16y ago

Here's what I want: Better display. Higher resolution, color fidelity, reflective or responsive/respective of ambient light levels. A screen that can simultaneously display enough pages/books to occupy/correspond to my immediate, working memory (5-7, maybe a few more for the young/bright). Immediate responsiveness and a graphical paradigm that need not seek to exactly mimic a real world setting, yet sufficiently replicates and triggers my sense of spacial orientation to take advantage of same (I left the book with that reference face down on the chair, and the other reference I need is at the 3rd or 4th bookmark in the one with the green cover.) Electronic/automated search and discovery. Real ownership (no magic DRM "disappearances") including the ability to transfer (including lending) at will. Longer term, for especially solo consumption of electronic media, I think we're looking at heads up, imaging glasses and contacts. Until they start installing the sockets in our craniums.