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This might be a small difference, but is this an english parsing or reality parsing issue? I mean, shouldn't these questions come up as you're mentally interro
by dalbasal 9y ago
This might be a small difference, but is this an english parsing or reality parsing issue?
I mean, shouldn't these questions come up as you're mentally interrogating the scenario, and trying to win the car? What happens if the host opens a car door, do I win?
If the host opens doors randomly, I have a 2/3 chance of winning anyway. But, I didn't have enough information to know that when I picked a door first. By the time I do, I'm already back to 50-50 odds. I don't think people make either 2/3 game their mental model of the game.
IDK about non-mathematicians, but I taught a parlour-games-ish parent day class at a high school once. We solved this problem until the kids got it. Then they had to explain it to other kids. My hint was emphasising "every week he shows a goat." Then basically this program, "playing" over and over on blackboard and recording results. Either way, it takes effort before people think of the entire game (including the 2nd choice) as a single game mechanic. Almost everyone gets it if you make them play the host.
Maybe mathematicians are less prone to suspicion... Kids and adult non-mathematicians usually suspect the host of being up to something, so they are animating him in their mental model.
Anyway, I think there's something interesting about this problem, and how people have difficulty thinking about it. I wonder if the same mechanic, but with a differently decorated story would be easier for people? A robot host, for instance.
- loup-vaillant 9y ago> What happens if the host opens a car door, do I win? I've always assumed that you lose in this case.
- foo101 9y agoThe host never opens a car door because the host knows where the car is. The host always opens a non-car door and gives the player a choice to make the situation interesting.
- loup-vaillant 9y ago> The host never opens a car door How do you know that? Depending on the exact wording of the problem, or even the actual television show, the host can totally open the car door. He just didn't, this time.
- foo101 9y agoHave you ever seen the actual television show opening the car door? I have never seen that.