5 ms·

I'm not convinced of either the facts or the narrative here. As to the facts, it does not look to me like Slovakia had particularly low fertility. See e.g. ht

I'm not convinced of either the facts or the narrative here. As to the facts, it does not look to me like Slovakia had particularly low fertility. See e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Slovakia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Slovakia "Half of all women born before 1930 had three or more children compared to one-third of Czech women of the same birth cohorts": https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/25/19-25.pdf https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol19/25/19-25.... As to the narrative, I've never heard of a society breeding itself into prosperity. In 2005, the 10 countries with the highest fertility in the world were: Niger, Mali, Somalia, Chad, Burundi, Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, East Timor, and Angola. Bottom 10 on that list were: Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, Malta, Portugal, South Korea, Singapore, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Hong Kong, and Macau. A somewhat mixed record of success, to be sure, but would any of them want to trade places with any country in the top 10? http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Health/Births-and-maternity/Total-fertility-rate http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Health/Births...

watwut 9y ago
He is talking about one small region and protestant minority subculture in it.
- microtherion 9y ago
  Sure, and you're welcome to dig up statistics from that region/subculture to substantiate OP's claims. Absent those, I remain skeptical that the demographics really different that much from the country as a whole.
  - watwut 9y ago
    I guess that you are free to come to Slovakia and read the same archives and chronicles for that small region. The point is primary, that fertility statistics for whole Slovakia are useless here, because Slovakia is mostly Catholic. And they used to have big families, valued big families and having no or only one child would be a shame and sad for Catholic women. Author does not claim that Slovakia had low fertility, he claims that protestants were different and had culture of small families. So the stats you dug out are irrelevant.
  - rdtsc 9y ago
    > you're welcome to dig up statistics from that region Given he specifically talks about a handful of places and contrasts with other regions where people had more children, and has a first hand account, shouldn't you be the one to dig up more info? Unless you think he completely made up the whole thing? Hopefully it's not that.
    - microtherion 9y ago
      > Given he specifically talks about a handful of places and contrasts with other regions where people had more children, and has a first hand account, A second or third hand account of his great-grandmother leaving her farm, but he says he did NOT understand the reasons for leaving from the family account. > shouldn't you be the one to dig up more info? You know, when part of the theory being espoused is literally that the region got depopulated because protestant Slovaks had a particular penchant for sex with farm animals, I rather think that the proponent of the theory has to meet a bigger burden of proof than what's in evidence here. > Unless you think he completely made up the whole thing? Hopefully it's not that. "completely made up" is a strong word, and OP cites a source. However, reading (part of) that source, I get the strong impression that both interviewer and interviewee were fitting anecdotes into a preconceived narrative. There is a lot of speculation and gazing at headstones, and little mention of trying to get at the underlying numbers: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=sk&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fdennikn.sk%2F953687%2Fako-evanjelici-sami-seba-na-juhu-stredneho-slovenska-takmer-vyhubili%2F https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=sk&tl=en&u=h...
      - rdtsc 9y ago
        > A second or third hand account of his great-grandmother leaving her farm, It's his great-grandmother and his family. I imagine he would know a thing or two about the culture, history and customs. Besides the particular story of the great-grandmother seems to just be a side story and background used to introduce the topic. > protestant Slovaks had a particular penchant for sex with farm animals Seems like that was misread. There were rumors of that happening because there was a cultural element encouraging having fewer children, so abstinence and various rituals around it became popular. I don't think reproductive and sex rituals are uncommon and strange. And we didn't invent strange sex stuff because internet is around. People were raunchy and sex obsessed before as well. I don't think that needs rigorous sources. > both interviewer and interviewee were fitting anecdotes into a preconceived narrative. It seems they still have more information and experience to draw from than an average HN'er here. If you just want to say, "I personally dislike that culture or ritual or theory", that's a fine thing. I can say I dislike spaghetti and like hamburgers more as well. But if you're trying to convince others that the presented story is wrong, then either a personal account would work (you live there, heard the stories, experience them), or even better if you have decent sources. Your source didn't quite do it and it's silly to ask the author or others to go dig more sources to prove their case.
alexasmyths 9y ago
"I've never heard of a society breeding itself into prosperity." America, UK, Germany, Japan - most modern nations had reasonably normal to high birth rates over the last few hundred years.
- ekianjo 9y ago
  They did not become rich because they had tons of people. Hey look at India.
  - icebraining 9y ago
    Or maybe they did - just not only because of that.
  - alexasmyths 9y ago
    "They did not become rich because they had tons of people." This is completely false. In North America in particular, the entire economic strategy was built on large scale immigration. Most nations become rich by 'adding bodies' into a functioning economy - and by nothing else. ---> Why do you think that the US and Canada are so keen on immigration? And why economists want Japan to have immigration? <---- Canada's population 100 years ago was a fraction of what it it is today - do you think it would be 'as rich' with just a few million people? Perhaps on a per-capita basis, but then probably not. WORKERS = GDP. So long as they are integrated into a working economy. I do not like this approach to growth but it's how many nations do it. Of course - 'adding bodies' into a dysfunctional economy, or where there are no means for those new bodies to add economic activity ... will be bad. Hence - China, India, Africa. I think we should find better ways to achieve growth - but 'body count' is still the number ONE way that entities around the world try to do it. Canadian city mayors are all clamouring for more bodies = more tax base = more power.
    - ekianjo 9y ago
      adding bodies is not enough to get rich. if that were the case then all current developing countries would be world power on their own rights. Japan was a world power back in late 1800 despite having a relatively small population. gdp is headcount times productivity. seems like you forgot productivity in your equation.
coldtea 9y ago
>As to the facts, it does not look to me like Slovakia had particularly low fertility. He speaks of ONE part of Slovakia, and ONE community/religious group in that. And even that, in the past, not now. Those demographic numbers are, as such, irrelevant. >As to the narrative, I've never heard of a society breeding itself into prosperity. You'd be surprised. The reason the list doesn't look impressive is that fertility is one factor, and those countries lack the others (and have few hopes of getting it). Instead look at China, India, and the like for better examples. Plus, it's reversing cause and effect, as countries with major growth tend to decrease in fertility rates.
- microtherion 9y ago
  > Instead look at China, India, and the like for better examples. That would be China, which for most of its phase of economic hyper growth had a rather brutally enforced low fertility policy?
  - lotsofpulp 9y ago
    It takes time for children to grow up and affect economic growth, so it doesn't make sense to associate growth during the time the policy was in effect. There are also confounding variables, such as starting from a poorer position, which allows for more growth in the first place.
  - coldtea 9y ago
    There's a delay between adding such a law, and it having measurable demographic impact. That the law coincided with the growth is not the reason for growth: the prior population boom was the reason -or part of the reason- behind both the growth and the need for such a law. They didn't have an economic boost while suffering from the effects of sub-replacement/low fertility rates. Instead they've developed a huge population that was enough to fuel a huge growth, so much so that they had to slow it down.
zeckalpha 9y ago
Czech != Slovak

watwut 9y ago

He is talking about one small region and protestant minority subculture in it.

microtherion 9y ago
Sure, and you're welcome to dig up statistics from that region/subculture to substantiate OP's claims. Absent those, I remain skeptical that the demographics really different that much from the country as a whole.
- watwut 9y ago
  I guess that you are free to come to Slovakia and read the same archives and chronicles for that small region. The point is primary, that fertility statistics for whole Slovakia are useless here, because Slovakia is mostly Catholic. And they used to have big families, valued big families and having no or only one child would be a shame and sad for Catholic women. Author does not claim that Slovakia had low fertility, he claims that protestants were different and had culture of small families. So the stats you dug out are irrelevant.
- rdtsc 9y ago
  > you're welcome to dig up statistics from that region Given he specifically talks about a handful of places and contrasts with other regions where people had more children, and has a first hand account, shouldn't you be the one to dig up more info? Unless you think he completely made up the whole thing? Hopefully it's not that.
  - microtherion 9y ago
    > Given he specifically talks about a handful of places and contrasts with other regions where people had more children, and has a first hand account, A second or third hand account of his great-grandmother leaving her farm, but he says he did NOT understand the reasons for leaving from the family account. > shouldn't you be the one to dig up more info? You know, when part of the theory being espoused is literally that the region got depopulated because protestant Slovaks had a particular penchant for sex with farm animals, I rather think that the proponent of the theory has to meet a bigger burden of proof than what's in evidence here. > Unless you think he completely made up the whole thing? Hopefully it's not that. "completely made up" is a strong word, and OP cites a source. However, reading (part of) that source, I get the strong impression that both interviewer and interviewee were fitting anecdotes into a preconceived narrative. There is a lot of speculation and gazing at headstones, and little mention of trying to get at the underlying numbers: https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=sk&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fdennikn.sk%2F953687%2Fako-evanjelici-sami-seba-na-juhu-stredneho-slovenska-takmer-vyhubili%2F https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=sk&tl=en&u=h...
    - rdtsc 9y ago
      > A second or third hand account of his great-grandmother leaving her farm, It's his great-grandmother and his family. I imagine he would know a thing or two about the culture, history and customs. Besides the particular story of the great-grandmother seems to just be a side story and background used to introduce the topic. > protestant Slovaks had a particular penchant for sex with farm animals Seems like that was misread. There were rumors of that happening because there was a cultural element encouraging having fewer children, so abstinence and various rituals around it became popular. I don't think reproductive and sex rituals are uncommon and strange. And we didn't invent strange sex stuff because internet is around. People were raunchy and sex obsessed before as well. I don't think that needs rigorous sources. > both interviewer and interviewee were fitting anecdotes into a preconceived narrative. It seems they still have more information and experience to draw from than an average HN'er here. If you just want to say, "I personally dislike that culture or ritual or theory", that's a fine thing. I can say I dislike spaghetti and like hamburgers more as well. But if you're trying to convince others that the presented story is wrong, then either a personal account would work (you live there, heard the stories, experience them), or even better if you have decent sources. Your source didn't quite do it and it's silly to ask the author or others to go dig more sources to prove their case.

alexasmyths 9y ago

"I've never heard of a society breeding itself into prosperity." America, UK, Germany, Japan - most modern nations had reasonably normal to high birth rates over the last few hundred years.

ekianjo 9y ago
They did not become rich because they had tons of people. Hey look at India.
- icebraining 9y ago
  Or maybe they did - just not only because of that.
- alexasmyths 9y ago
  "They did not become rich because they had tons of people." This is completely false. In North America in particular, the entire economic strategy was built on large scale immigration. Most nations become rich by 'adding bodies' into a functioning economy - and by nothing else. ---> Why do you think that the US and Canada are so keen on immigration? And why economists want Japan to have immigration? <---- Canada's population 100 years ago was a fraction of what it it is today - do you think it would be 'as rich' with just a few million people? Perhaps on a per-capita basis, but then probably not. WORKERS = GDP. So long as they are integrated into a working economy. I do not like this approach to growth but it's how many nations do it. Of course - 'adding bodies' into a dysfunctional economy, or where there are no means for those new bodies to add economic activity ... will be bad. Hence - China, India, Africa. I think we should find better ways to achieve growth - but 'body count' is still the number ONE way that entities around the world try to do it. Canadian city mayors are all clamouring for more bodies = more tax base = more power.
  - ekianjo 9y ago
    adding bodies is not enough to get rich. if that were the case then all current developing countries would be world power on their own rights. Japan was a world power back in late 1800 despite having a relatively small population. gdp is headcount times productivity. seems like you forgot productivity in your equation.

coldtea 9y ago

>As to the facts, it does not look to me like Slovakia had particularly low fertility. He speaks of ONE part of Slovakia, and ONE community/religious group in that. And even that, in the past, not now. Those demographic numbers are, as such, irrelevant. >As to the narrative, I've never heard of a society breeding itself into prosperity. You'd be surprised. The reason the list doesn't look impressive is that fertility is one factor, and those countries lack the others (and have few hopes of getting it). Instead look at China, India, and the like for better examples. Plus, it's reversing cause and effect, as countries with major growth tend to decrease in fertility rates.

microtherion 9y ago
> Instead look at China, India, and the like for better examples. That would be China, which for most of its phase of economic hyper growth had a rather brutally enforced low fertility policy?
- lotsofpulp 9y ago
  It takes time for children to grow up and affect economic growth, so it doesn't make sense to associate growth during the time the policy was in effect. There are also confounding variables, such as starting from a poorer position, which allows for more growth in the first place.
- coldtea 9y ago
  There's a delay between adding such a law, and it having measurable demographic impact. That the law coincided with the growth is not the reason for growth: the prior population boom was the reason -or part of the reason- behind both the growth and the need for such a law. They didn't have an economic boost while suffering from the effects of sub-replacement/low fertility rates. Instead they've developed a huge population that was enough to fuel a huge growth, so much so that they had to slow it down.

zeckalpha 9y ago

Czech != Slovak