3 ms·

Yes, and that's without accounting for the cost reduction of reduced accidents.

by wrsh07 9y ago

tome 9y ago
Can you provide some evidence? I'm not being snarky. I genuinely don't know how we know this will work.
- wrsh07 9y ago
  We see a lot of back-of-the-envelope math about total costs. Eg FastCompany has a post [1] that suggests total costs today [with more-or-less publicly available equipment] would be about $300k. I think if it remained north of $200k, it would be viable for kind of specific applications [eg truck driving] where you're replacing modestly compensated workers over many years. [truck drivers have a median compensation of $40k by a quick search, and hopefully the equipment would have an average expected lifespan of >5 years with nominal maintenance] However, multiple companies at this point are claiming very inexpensive LiDAR units [2] [3]. If you assume costs drop to $100k [including maintenance] for a self-driving car, now three years of driving a truck would pay for itself [and taxis wouldn't be far behind]. In [1], analysts estimate costs will be down to $10k total by 2025. At that point, car ownership will be dramatically different. Analysts discuss the confluence of electrification, servicification [of rides], and self-driving cars to be kind of unpredictable. Each of these would be a massive shakeup for the industry, and the combination will be pretty interesting to watch. [1] https://www.fastcompany.com/3025722/will-you-ever-be-able-to-afford-a-self-driving-car https://www.fastcompany.com/3025722/will-you-ever-be-able-to... [2] "Reduced cost of LiDAR by 99%" https://medium.com/kylevogt/how-were-solving-the-lidar-problem-8b4363ff30db https://medium.com/kylevogt/how-were-solving-the-lidar-probl... [3] Waymo claims <$10k: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/01/googles-waymo-invests-in-lidar-technology-cuts-costs-by-90-percent/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/01/googles-waymo-invests-i...
rubyfan 9y ago
Source?

Yes, and that's without accounting for the cost reduction of reduced accidents.

by wrsh07 9y ago

Yes, and that's without accounting for the cost reduction of reduced accidents.

tome 9y ago

Can you provide some evidence? I'm not being snarky. I genuinely don't know how we know this will work.

wrsh07 9y ago
We see a lot of back-of-the-envelope math about total costs. Eg FastCompany has a post [1] that suggests total costs today [with more-or-less publicly available equipment] would be about $300k. I think if it remained north of $200k, it would be viable for kind of specific applications [eg truck driving] where you're replacing modestly compensated workers over many years. [truck drivers have a median compensation of $40k by a quick search, and hopefully the equipment would have an average expected lifespan of >5 years with nominal maintenance] However, multiple companies at this point are claiming very inexpensive LiDAR units [2] [3]. If you assume costs drop to $100k [including maintenance] for a self-driving car, now three years of driving a truck would pay for itself [and taxis wouldn't be far behind]. In [1], analysts estimate costs will be down to $10k total by 2025. At that point, car ownership will be dramatically different. Analysts discuss the confluence of electrification, servicification [of rides], and self-driving cars to be kind of unpredictable. Each of these would be a massive shakeup for the industry, and the combination will be pretty interesting to watch. [1] https://www.fastcompany.com/3025722/will-you-ever-be-able-to-afford-a-self-driving-car https://www.fastcompany.com/3025722/will-you-ever-be-able-to... [2] "Reduced cost of LiDAR by 99%" https://medium.com/kylevogt/how-were-solving-the-lidar-problem-8b4363ff30db https://medium.com/kylevogt/how-were-solving-the-lidar-probl... [3] Waymo claims <$10k: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/01/googles-waymo-invests-in-lidar-technology-cuts-costs-by-90-percent/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/01/googles-waymo-invests-i...

rubyfan 9y ago

Source?