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Bill Gates: In Five Years The Best Education Will Come From The Web

179 points by BvS 16y ago

nchls-wu 16y ago
I think it's pretty easy to miss Gates' point. He said that you'll be able to find the best *lectures in the world which will be better than any single University. With initiatives like MIT OpenCourseWare and iTunes U, this isn't that hard to imagine. I think most HN readers wouldn't doubt the power of a motivated, passionate individual when it comes to learning. To me, the takeaway point that is most interesting is Gates' desire to break down the barriers to higher education and the transfer of knowledge. He also recognizes the declining value of a Bachelor's Degree. Educational Institutions will always be vital to the education of "tomorrow's leaders," but the current paradigm is flawed and I like where Gates seems to be going with this.
BvS 16y ago
I agree with most of what he says except for US books beeing to long. I recognized it when I spend a year in the US as an exchange student. The books really are longer than in Germany but I actually consider it to be a good thing. Sometimes explaining something in 3 sentences makes it easier and therefor faster to understand than saying it in 1 sentence which you have to read over and over agin to get it.
- sliverstorm 16y ago
  I haven't experienced college-level textbooks to be particularly full of clutter, but K-12 textbooks were full of useless cruft. (not that children in kindergarten have textbooks)
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- kxs 16y ago
  Well, tastes differ, but I tend to get bored pretty quick and can't stand verbose texts. In my mind they have to be briefly worded and exact and that's pretty hard to come by. Uwe Schönings "Theoretische Informatik- kurz gefasst" (similar to: Gems of Theoretical Computer Science) is an example of what I have in mind. It's hard to find something like that, most books are a pain to read (in my opinion).
franksalim 16y ago
Saw this by chance on twitter: http://twitter.com/BillGates/status/19764971764 http://twitter.com/BillGates/status/19764971764 "I’ve been spending time watching some of the courses on www.khanacademy.org – many of which are quite good. More coming on GatesNotes..." For what it's worth, I think he is right. You can learn a tremendous amount by reading and watching talks on the Web.
- robryan 16y ago
  Those are excellent, I love how approaches everything in terms of the normal person who might find some concepts tricky and need a closer explanation. I've gone to lectures then watched one of these on the same content and he really explains it so much better. The thing lecturers tend to do is assume everyone in the class has been through the same set of classes before the current one and assume many things should be completely obvious and not need explanation, when often they do.
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barry-cotter 16y ago
That's great. Now please set up an organisation, whether profit or non-profit that will examine the content of the most common degree courses that teach something where there is a "core" to the field regardless of prior qualifications and certify that knowledge.
- lsc 16y ago
  Personally, I think it would be best to, as much as possible, disconnect the teaching and the certification. both are hard problems by themselves; when you put them together, you end up with what we have now.
  - JesseAldridge 16y ago
    That's a really good point. The teacher is the certifier. Heh, no conflict of interest there... This is how we end up with grade inflation.
zyb09 16y ago
Well this is true if you want to be a software developer. You can get very skilled and competent just learning online. For everything else I don't know... I sure would get a little uncomfortable if my surgeon told me he skipped college and learned everything from tutorials before he gave me my anesthesia.
- andreyf 16y ago
  Well this is true if you want to be a software developer. Or a mathematician, director, physicist, screen writer, journalist, accountant, statistician, historian, designer, botanist, cook, mechanic, etc. Now that I think of it, most professions already have online communities for discussion and group learning of skills which one self-motivated enough to study. What's most blatantly missing is the accreditation: it's not easy to cheat the accreditation system at a University (mostly because the experience of academic culture is what gives the accreditation validity), but it's a lot easier to "cheat" online.
  - siglesias 16y ago
    Whoa whoa whoa, WHAT? Historian, cook, screen writer, journalist, director? On what planet can directorial skills be conveyed via a lecture video clip? Did CalArts, which graduated Tim Burton, John Lasseter, Pete Docter, Joe Ranft, and countless other masters of animation do so simply by showing them what amounted to the same stock lectures with some automated method of remote feedback? Or was it instead significantly in part a communal learning experience that involved peer criticism and one on one tutelage from professors who were in the room with them as they drew and developed their craft? I'm sorry, but believe it or not, not all professional skills can be remotely acquired without a kind of human transference of intangible, personable skills. Education in higher academia is about much more than the acquisition of particular facts--it's a culture, practice, and way of life. Critical ideas are meant to be discussed in person, ruminated on, and debated in real, highly dynamic discussions. Real life work environments, especially in software companies, are ones in which critical, GROUP brainstorming dynamics are particularly important, because oftentimes the answer doesn't lie in the answer key in the back of the book, but rather as a result of a group process of rumination, guess, check, and revision.
andreyf 16y ago
I agree with the title, but this seems short-sighted: Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world Lectures might be the optimal way of learning given the technology of the last millenium, but I don't think they'll survive even a century in this one. Computers are interactive interfaces, and "The Web" is an interactive medium. I have a feeling that whatever replaces lectures is going to take advantage of that.
- glhaynes 16y ago
  There are non-interactive digital media too such as podcasts... it seems like nearly every scholarly lecture I try to listen to, though, has the first 20-30 minutes taken up by (multiple!) fawning introductions or a reading of the class syllabus. I'm getting annoyed just thinking about it.
  - andreyf 16y ago
    But podcasts aren't that different of a medium from radio, or mailing out tapes, for that matter. The web is different.
- nkassis 16y ago
  Things like this impress me: http://tryruby.org/ http://tryruby.org/ This could work for other subjects too.
scotty79 16y ago
I hope that he's not gonna jinx it like few of his earlier predictions.
tkahn6 16y ago
It would be nice if there was more substance to the article. It would be fascinating to know the reasons Gates has formed this opinion - the specific trends he's seeing and some actionable road-map to make this happen.
sorbus 16y ago
"He believes that no matter how you came about your knowledge, you should get credit for it. Whether it’s an MIT degree or if you got everything you know from lectures on the web, there needs to be a way to highlight that." So, is he planning to try to develop an organization to provide that certification (because that's one of the major functions of colleges, though how important it is varies by field) or is he just saying that someone should? I'm pretty sure that he could manage it if he wanted to, even though it could be a pretty huge challenge [I can think of a few ways to get the core of the process (knowledge verification) to work, but none of them are quite perfect, so I'm sure that the main problem would be pretty easy to solve].
okmjuhb 16y ago
A few loosely related thoughts as to why I'm fond of the University system (in response to the negative tone of some of the comments here and at techcrunch): - It's the only socially acceptable way to spend years simply learning as a full time job. - The argument that "lectures will soon be online" only makes sense if you believe that physically being present in lectures is the way that people gain knowledge in school. - University admissions maintain a level of intelligence in incoming classes that I don't think an online community ever could - so that the students who interact at a university are interacting in a productive way. - Physical colocation is just a better way of interacting with people than communicating online is.
- andreyf 16y ago
  Responding in reverse order: - "Communicating online" is in its infancy. The way people communicate online now (facebook, twitter) is wholly different than 10 years ago, and will be wholly different 10 years from now. - I agree that University admissions provide a useful filter, but one may emerge online, as well. Already, the people you meet on HN are not the people you'll meet on 4chan. I wonder what an HN clone would be like if membership were applied for and kept only as long as you maintained a certain comment point average. - Agreed. A great deal of what Universities provide is a cultural submersion into a social class. This is hard, if not impossible, to replicate online. That said, it has nothing to do with learning. People can still learn online and go about indoctrinating in one social class or another in other ways. - Social norms follow progress, not vice versa. Whatever Universities will be like in 1000 years won't be socially acceptable when it first appears.
  - philwelch 16y ago
    The way people communicate online now (facebook, twitter) is wholly different than 10 years ago, and will be wholly different 10 years from now. Different, yes. Better? Ten years ago, the conversations I had on mailing lists had a lot more potential than you can fit in 140 characters. The trend isn't very promising.
    - dagw 16y ago
varjag 16y ago
Wasn't Gates a dropout? Of course, a successful man, but I would not put that much weight in his opinion on education.
- lsc 16y ago
  Eh, it seems to me that if he knows how to do well /without/ a formal education, he may be in a position where he knows more than most people about what parts of 'education' are important, and which parts are not.
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  - sliverstorm 16y ago
    Well, at least in his field of expertise. Different fields depend on education in different ways. Really, what he was best at as I gather is summed up by this: After reading the January 1975 issue of Popular Electronics that demonstrated the Altair 8800, Gates contacted Micro Instrumentation and Telemetry Systems (MITS), the creators of the new microcomputer, to inform them that he and others were working on a BASIC interpreter for the platform. In reality, Gates and Allen did not have an Altair and had not written code for it; they merely wanted to gauge MITS's interest. MITS president Ed Roberts agreed to meet them for a demo, and over the course of a few weeks they developed an Altair emulator that ran on a minicomputer, and then the BASIC interpreter. The demonstration, held at MITS's offices in Albuquerque, was a success and resulted in a deal with MITS to distribute the interpreter as Altair BASIC
    - lsc 16y ago
      right. my point was that gates is clearly /very good/ at something. I mean, from what I read, he's no slouch as a computer guy, either, I mean, how often are projects like that delivered on time? Sure, he made a dishonest claim about what he had, but when called on it, he delivered.
      - 16y ago
Mz 16y ago
Education and accreditation are two different things. I think for some things, just knowing it is valuable and accreditation is not so important. I have thought a lot about how to effectively convey information. I think the web is a good means to do some of that. I don't know that the university function of accreditation will so readily go away. I think that's probably unrealistic.
- lsc 16y ago
  the thing is, accreditation, in and of itself, is pretty goddamn difficult. Schools do a horrible job of accrediting software engineers. Generally speaking, accreditation doesn't really start working well until job roles stop changing so fast.
  - Mz 16y ago
    I homeschooled my sons. My sons are "twice exceptional" -- gifted with learning (and other) disabilities. I have always told them that their best hope of making their lives work will be to found their own company. They can very effectively get things done but I don't think they can work for other people. When you found your own company, you don't need accreditation. Either the product sells or it doesn't. Similarly, I spent a lot of time very sick. I made a lot of dietary and lifestyle changes and I am healthier now than I have ever been in my life. I am not a doctor but I am also not impressed with the current healthcare model followed in the US. I think I have a cheaper and more effective alternative to offer. Study after study after study shows that diet and lifestyle are huge factors in all the major (deadly) illnesses, like heart disease, diabetes, cancer. But doctors mostly don't push for dietary and lifestyle changes. They are mostly in the business of selling pills and surgeries. A big part of why they don't is that people aren't very receptive. Many people just want an easy answer. And it's quite hard to make money off of promoting lifestyle changes. So to me, the big challenges are how to more effectively convey information and how to monetize it. I am still trying to decide if I should largely abandon my current websites and start over in a new space. I don't yet know the answer to that. But I do know that I have narrowed it down to "education is the answer" and I do know that I am very good at some things that other people seem to not be good at. I know this from years spent on homeschooling forums where for some particularly difficult things, I often was the only person who had much to say. So I find this article very relevant at the moment and encouraging. I don't know if I have much to really contribute to the conversation that will be of interest to others or that they will value. Perhaps I just need to talk about it. For my own goals, accreditation is unimportant. The piece that matters is whether or not the information is conveyed adequately, which my current websites are not doing. I think I will be doing something educational on the web in the future. So I am kind of excited to see this piece.
ja27 16y ago
Why shouldn't it be? For most of my college career, I was taught in a non-interactive lecture (from 15 to 300 students at a time). Sometimes the lectures were even being recorded or simulcast to remote locations. The lecturer often had no idea who I was. In graduate school, I got a good look at the "sausage factory" of how many core computer science class lectures are really developed. Unless it's an area of research and publication for the professor, they do a minimal amount of work on their lecture notes and exams. In some cases, the same professor taught the same subject year after year. Sometimes this resulted in progressively better notes, but sometimes not. In other cases, the class rotated among professors. They often took each other's lecture notes and used them with varying degrees of revision. Only when a course was a true passion of the professor was the lecture anything much more than what could be gleaned from a couple of textbooks on the topic. Beyond the lectures, most of the labs and assignments were handled by grad student teaching assistants. I also got to see many of my friends go through the TA machine in grad school. The rare lucky ones got to TA a course related to their research, but most TAs were assigned to courses where they only knew as much as they'd learned in their own undergrad experience in that course. A few TAs would scramble to get up to speed. The smart ones would do the bare minimum for the course and focus on their research. Then there are the textbooks. I look at the dead tree debris that on my bookshelves from my nearly dozen years of higher education and very few books contain anything beyond what's on Wikipedia today. I can look back at a topic like "operating systems" and cringe. This was a undergraduate course that rotated amongst professors. At the time I took it, I'd already been on a dozen operating systems including VMS, NeXTStep and Dynix, played with Minix code, read Bach and Tanenbaum, etc. The PhD student assigned to teach my class had an undergrad in linguistics. I believe he'd never even logged into any unix system, much less had an operating systems course himself. He even dropped out late in the semester and disappeared. I damn near asked for a refund, but I took my grade and moved on. There's no reason that a few passionate people on the web couldn't top that.
- pjscott 16y ago
  My operating systems class devoted a whole lecture to how OSes deal with tape drives. Meanwhile, I don't think we covered networking. This was three years ago, and the course material was essentially unchanged from the 1970s. When it comes to computers, the internet has been better than most undergraduate programs for a while now. And it's only getting better.
kloncks 16y ago
I wouldn't have believed this earlier. But, today we're getting ever closer to it. Best example: http://www.academicearth.org http://www.academicearth.org
mcgraw 16y ago
I can't remember if it was Stanford or Berkeley, but one of them was going to open up the ability to earn a full degree online. I'm not sure when, but I heard that transition has a lot of students at the university in an uproar. One step at a time and the elite education will be everywhere, though it'll still cost an arm-and-a-leg. I am huge on web-based education. I can't imagine what my skill-set would look like if I had access to today's web when I was growing up. I would love to build a website that brings educators together, from anywhere, to instruct groups of 10-15 people on specific topics-of-choice -- for free. Edit: Looked it up, apparently it was UC in general -- http://bit.ly/aCmsNF http://bit.ly/aCmsNF "The idea is that UC could become the first top-tier American university to offer a bachelor's degree over the Internet."
- sliverstorm 16y ago
  In reality I should look this up, but I'm guessing Berkeley. They are a public Uni, and if you look on iTunes U they have an impressive collection.
  - nkassis 16y ago
    I've been checking out some of their EECS classes and they are very well made.
- itiztv 16y ago
  http://scpd.stanford.edu/becomeAStudent/deliveryOptions.jsp http://scpd.stanford.edu/becomeAStudent/deliveryOptions.jsp
Ghostis 16y ago
Amen. I'm taking a class in Abstract Algrebra in the fall. I already have a general overview of the topic and have been working some practice problems from online resources. It's amazing what's available these days if you want to teach yourself.
Charuru 16y ago
Bill Gates probably wants you to do labs with the Kinect and get automatically graded.
stralep 16y ago
I was learning Scheme from old SICP lectures online. Best lecture EVER. Why would professors need to make same lectures every year? It make more sense to make new lectures only when they have something new or better to say.
- dagw 16y ago
  You can't ask questions and start discussions during pre-recorded lectures. The important part of a lecture isn't just the words being spoken by the lecturer, but also the impromptu discussions they lead to.
  - muuh-gnu 16y ago
    Then you also need to tape the questions and answers and assemble a video FAQ accompanying the lectures. Or let other people support the lectures and answer upcomming questions. I think that its a collosal waste of time and ressources to make great lecturers repeat the same lecture over and over and over again to a small, limited number of students, instead of letting them record a larger number of one-time lectures. My favourite example is Salman Khan. If he had to repeat a few chosen topics over and over, he would never had the chance of creating a body of work as large and comprehensive as his academy. He said about that: "With so little effort on my own part, I can empower an unlimited amount of people for all time. I can't imagine a better use of my time." By the way, in the recorded SICP lectures, there arent actually _that_ many interesting questions asked. If Abelson and Sussman thought your way and prefered live interaction just in order to be able to answer more questions, thousands of people during the last 25 years would have not been able to experience them _at all_. It is not fair to reduce great lecturers to mere question answerers, IMO the accompanying Q&A sessions always account for a very small part of the value of a lecture, i.e. just to fill a occasional gap.
    - dagw 16y ago
      Don't get me wrong, recorded lectures are great. I love the SICP lectures and I'm really happy the web as given me the opportunity to see them. However if I was given the choice I'd far prefer to have had the chance to be there live and discuss the material with the lecturers, and if the lecturers at my university had said "I'm not going to given any lectures, since I recorded them a few years ago" I'd feel very ripped off. At the end of the, as good as recorded lectures are, they'll never replace "the best" teaching experiences.
ams6110 16y ago
The established brick and mortar higher ed industry is not going to have their livelihood taken away without a fight. More fundamentally, very few individuals aged 18 - 25 have the self-discipline to complete the equivalent of an undergraduate education on-line, with no class schedules, no set exam times, nothing to enforce any routine of learning. Some do no doubt, but not anything near the number that are able to do it now within the structure of a traditional university or college.
- vorg 16y ago
  You mentioned "the equivalent of an undergrad education". This "equivalent" can have different levels (associate, bachelors, with honors), number of majors, average grade, testing criteria, testing jurisdiction, duration, how recent, etc. When the brick and mortar higher ed industry dies, perhaps the concept of achieving some recognized education "equivalency" will die with it. Everything will be ongoing learning, never attaining.
  - nkassis 16y ago
    While it's not perfect, a college degree is usually a decent indicator that a person has at least heard of the stuff you want. A new way to quantify level or progression of a person would have to replace it. There is no reason why the current Universities can't provide this for online courses. Online courses do not mean that there won't be any Profs and TAs. But you just won't be going to their office on preset hours and sit in a classroom on specific hours. Undergrad education in certain subject really doesn't change from year to year. You could build a course and do small adjustments year to year. What you would provide as a service in my view is the human help. What I hope won't happen is that Universities will turn into for profit course giving institutions. We need the R&D work done at Universities. I'd be suprised if the government would want to continue funding Universities as they do now if for profit website could do it cheaper. Do the current for profit school like the University of Phoenix do any research?
drylight 16y ago
I wouldn't count on any predictions made by Gates. He said that the spam problem would be solved. And that was meant to happen some 5 years ago.
- 0ffworlder 16y ago
  What about gmail? I haven't got any spam for years...
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joegaudet 16y ago
I have never found the fidelity of online learning to be _anywhere_ in the ball park of in-institution learning. Especially in the areas of humanities and so forth, but also in Engineering (I hold a BSCEng, and am currently a Masters student) labs, conversation, community learning are all essential. I also can't help but think of the Socratic method, and how at least I personally tend to learn in that manner. Simply being presented with information as fact doesn't really do it for me. Being guided, and assisted at coming to the truth on my own always leaves me with a much deeper connection to the knowledge I've acquired. And I feel that requires as certain measure of realtime interaction with someone who is an expert in the field. Simply watching their lectures while informative, does not seem to be enough. While this may change in the future, given that online learning is in its infancy, I think 5 years is a bit short term. Especially considering the pace at which the established institution of education moves.
shadowsun7 16y ago
I'm curious as to how Gates compares America to Asia and says that Asia is currently beating the West (example he gives is that Asia has smaller, shorter textbooks and yet scores higher on global acadeimic tests). Whereas in Asia people are scrambling to emulate the Western education system. They see the American education system as better at fostering originality and creativity. And there's a bias towards rote in Eastern education systems (at the moment). Could it be that this is a grass-is-greener on the other side phenomenon?
- Ardit20 16y ago
  Nope. Its a find something to support your point and bend it a little bit. I was thinking on the point he made though that maybe textbooks in America are thicker because America has more scientific knowledge than Asia and maybe the books get updated more often and maybe they are more in depth. Basically, I do not think you can just take one variable and compare it to another and proclaim that's the reason.
  - speleding 16y ago
    I have a masters degree from both a US university and one in Europe. It always struck me how the American books were consistently thicker then the the ones I got in Europe. The contents was the same basically, just much more condensed writing. The American books I could read almost like a novel, whereas before I had to carefully study each page, sometimes read it two times to understand what it meant. Just a matter of style really, I wouldn't read too much into it. Perhaps the fact that in the US you have to pay for your own text books is a driver too.
tectonic 16y ago
On the other hand, I just finished taking a couple of courses online and I have to say that I really missed the hands-on and interpersonal (study groups, discussions, etc.) aspects of a real classroom environment.
watmough 16y ago
Gates is years behind the curve as always. As a concrete example, the Apple-provided WWDC 2010 sessions on iOS 4.0 and OS X are some of the best educational materials I've ever seen. Well recorded, tested material, and, this is key, absolutely knowledgable presenters. The people that built those systems. I doubt any university, at any price, could provide lecture materials as broad as these. Add in the fact that I can watch these at my own pace on an iPad, literally anywhere, and scrub back and forwards, and there's no excuse for missing anything. I think back to my sausage-factory university classes, and pretty-much it was mostly second-rate stuff, with a few notable exceptions (Guest lecture from SPJ on graph-reduction, in 87 was probably the high-point). It's sad to think I spent four years of my life doing a bachelors, when I could probably cover the material about 50% faster now, and retain it significantly better. In short, Gates is late. It'll be way faster than 5 years. Hell, the new SICP lectures are already available I believe, and I'm sure geology, physics, maths, stats will all follow.
- Hari_Seldon 16y ago
  Bill Gates is not exactly known for his prophetic powers :-)
robryan 16y ago
There are a couple of things I can get from attending uni that I can't get from learning online. - Focus - Sitting at the computer it is very easily to be distracted trying to pick up a challenging new concept. I find this even more true about things I don't derive any immediate benefit from, as in it is easier to concentrate on learning a library I'm going to use in a freelance project than say an obscure statistical model for a class. Sitting in the lecture give me that chance to clear my head from most distractions and focus on the content. - Mindset - I head into uni, it usually gets me in the right mindset for learning and completing tasks. I don't get that sitting at home. I would also add the guidance of some lecturers/ supervisors but this point really depends where you are. I can't say in my own experience this couldn't have been replaced online although their are moments when having such experienced teachers can help. Edit- I would also add that these issues could be solved by getting together at a co-working space with some like minded others. I guess a hybrid model like that could have some merit, the educational institute acts as a network to connect like minded people for online study. Maybe they could also have a staff member that has a hands off role and just answers questions over email for a much reduced fee over the traditional system.
jsz0 16y ago
Why hasn't online learning trickled down to the lower levels? Public schools could really benefit from having a big catalog of online course material to offer students. I realize there's a need and benefit to instructor led courses but our entire education policy in the US seems to focus on the lowest common denominator. Why not let the best and brightest push forward with self paced learning? Give them more choices. Let them start focusing on their unique interests. This would possibly give teachers more time to help the kids who are falling behind. I would have done much better in school with self paced learning.
- mkr-hn 16y ago
  It wasn't until we had something like Youtube and widespread broadband that it became viable for even the poorest schools. That was only 2005. Look at how quickly stuff like Khan Academy and other things sprung up after Youtube launched. That's only 5 years. Schools have to be conservative in things like this because the things they teach kids will serve as the foundation of their lives. Give it another 5 or 10, and I think we'll see an online component as a standard part of public schooling.
stretchwithme 16y ago
Will it be fine lectures that make education so effective? Or just-in-time learning customized precisely to the user?
makecheck 16y ago
I think the real value of the web is to give students free access to the nitty-gritty details of potential careers. These details would not serve as a replacement for education (I feel that's impossible, since hands-on lab experience and access to expensive equipment, etc. are so important to competency). Rather, they would help to ensure that students are embarking on a path that they're sure they want. Some people spend a couple of years and thousands of dollars before discovering that their major isn't really what they thought it would be. And by then, they're just unhappy; they have invested too much to turn back, and don't really have passion anymore. I strongly suspect that a lot of people who do crappy work simply got into this kind of trap; if they'd had the chance to find out more about other jobs in detail, they may have made a different choice of major, and been much happier and more productive somewhere else.
DaniFong 16y ago
Much of the best education already does come from the web, Bill. It's just that most of society doesn't recognize it.
motters 16y ago
I think Gates is right, and this is something which I've also ranted about in the past. The cost of university education has been increasing, there are an increasing number of people wanting university education and that level of education is increasingly expected in the workforce. There is also a significant fraction of the population who cannot afford university education (don't have wealthy parents) or do not want to take out gigantic loans which may take them decades to repay. University education is no longer a ticket to a high paying job, and that has been the case for quite some time, so large education loans can't necessarily be justified on a financial basis. Also this year many applicants have been turned away by universities due to budget cuts which means that they have fewer places, and that trend could go on for a few more years at least. The solution isn't new. The Open University has been around for a long time, and something like OU, augmented with all the media content that the internet can deliver, would seem to be the logical way to deliver higher education at lower cost.
- Ardit20 16y ago
  And lower quality. I do not see anyone replacing an Oxford place with OU or any university place with OU. I think, though I might be very much wrong, it caters to niches, rather than the core of university market which is 18 to 21 year old. The difficulty with OU is that it is not too easy to motivate yourself. In uni you know you are there to study - kind of - with OU or any other virtual replacement its a bit like a project which easily can drift because really nothing has changed with your life. You'll just get a bunch of stuff in the post and some online logging. Also, there seems to be many generalisations on your comment and almost wishful thinking. Sort of saying, things are bad, so this replacement is the alternative so lets do it, rather than judging the replacement on its merits.
  - motters 16y ago
    The core university market seems to be voting with its feet. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-10903088 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-10903088
    - 16y ago
Prisen 16y ago
There seems to be a consensus on HN that it's very important for startup founders to live in the same location. Face-to-face time is considered so important that VCs say they will not even consider investing in distributed startups. The same theme is strong when describing the hassles with outsourcing. Yet a lot of people completely ignore this for education. Suddenly there is no value in spending time with classmates/teachers. It's all very strange to me.
jacoblyles 16y ago
According to Mr. Gates the best University level education will come from the web in five years. But K-12 still has to suck.
uio 16y ago
University and high school is a way to employ people who study and obey rules. If you dry this fountain and this job get outsourced, less people will get incentives to study. A society without universities would be a very disrupted society. Power is university supported.
uio 16y ago
I would give a robot doctor to those that considered education as a simple fact. You should have time to consider that your "doctor" is not so nice as a real one. So when your "robot doctor" is acceptable to you, then I should consider your consideration for education.
rbanffy 16y ago
Because internet education should be enough for anyone... Now, seriously, Gates has a very weak track record on predicting the future of technology. That's why Microsoft was never known to be a first mover into any new market. It's really hard to predict the future - I was watching 2001 with my 14 year-old son last week and couldn't help but laugh that in an enormous space station an what seemed high orbit you would have AT&T phone booths. "Mobile devices will be able to send and receive messages, but it will be expensive and unusual to use them to receive an individual video stream" On ordering flowers online: "You'll be able to watch the florist arrange the bouquet, change your mind if you want, and replace wilting roses with fresh anemones." "I believe that we’ll not only be using the keyboard and the mouse to interact, but during that time we will have perfected speech recognition and speech output well enough that those will become a standard part of the interface." (this is from mid 90's, IIRC) "I believe OS/2 is destined to be the most important operating system, and possibly program, of all time," which is right in a sense that NT was once OS/2 3.0 "Spam will be a thing of the past in two years' time," "We will never make a 32-bit operating system," (that was when he introduced the MSX in Japan) The low-end of the education will sure improve with the internet. Kids with mobile phones and computers can quickly google stuff up and browse the wikipedia to get some deeper information beyond their textbooks offer. It will augment, but it won't replace physical schools anytime soon.
- contextfree 16y ago
  It's not that hard to predict the future of technology if you follow the relevant fields of science/engineering. There are usually a set of core problems that everyone in the field is aware of and has been working on for decades. What is difficult, is predicting the timing of mass market viability of those technologies. (So in this respect it's like how many people had identified a housing bubble in 2004, but anyone who'd bet heavily on its imminent collapse then would've lost out.) Microsoft in particular actually have a track record of entering a market prematurely with an unpolished entry (often because the hardware resources/architecture/maturity of the underlying academic field aren't yet there to support a polished entry), failing, shelving the idea, and then being caught flatfooted N years later when someone else enters with something more polished.
notahacker 16y ago
Most students today realise that reading lecture notes n the course website is often an entirely adequate substitute for actually attending the lecture. But that misses the point. None of the knowledge or experiences I gained at university that have value to me today were obtained in a lecture theatre; nor could they be readily substituted for by a website.
kingkawn 16y ago
Best class I ever took was last year, the professor had been doing chalk and board since 1962, he was amazing, and it was because I was there. Maybe after his generation is gone we won't lose anything from communicating entirely via web, but to get the full breadth of knowledge from the lingering analogites among us, you gotta roll out of bed.
praeclarum 16y ago
Dearest Bill Gates, You are a very clever man. You see trends that most people ignore. You're probably right in this assertion. But you suck at time scales. It's like your fracking achilles heel. The world just doesn't change that fast. Dude, it just doesn't. Peace out, -Frank
ljegou 16y ago
As a complement, here is an article about China university admission development program: http://www.espacestemps.net/document8305.html http://www.espacestemps.net/document8305.html The context is clearly different, but the contrast seemed interesting. An excerpt: "The reasoning behind this decision was economic. The government reckoned that every million new graduates would raise China’s gdp by 2%. Not only did university graduates make skilled employees and attract higher incomes, but education itself was an engine of economic growth."
astrofinch 16y ago
"Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world" This is already true--for just one example, see academicearth.org. I suppose Bill has to make it a prediction for the future for the press to be able to digest it. I often tell people how absurd modern education is given the existence of video lectures (and the printing press, for that matter). They usually tell me that video lectures aren't a replacement for live lectures. When I ask if they've actually watched any video lectures, they usually haven't. Best advantage of video lectures: I can download them with the netvideohunter firefox extension and watch them 1.5x speed in VLC, which actually improves my comprehension because I'm less bored. Free textbooks are probably even better. I'm too busy with my side project to study, but here are two that look AWESOME: http://www.math.wisc.edu/~keisler/calc.html http://www.math.wisc.edu/~keisler/calc.html http://www.introecon.com/ http://www.introecon.com/ I'll be playing my fiddle when the educational establishment burns.
itiztv 16y ago
http://www.extension.harvard.edu/ http://www.extension.harvard.edu/ http://scpd.stanford.edu/becomeAStudent/deliveryOptions.jsp http://scpd.stanford.edu/becomeAStudent/deliveryOptions.jsp http://ischool.syr.edu/academics/distance/index.aspx http://ischool.syr.edu/academics/distance/index.aspx do we see a trend here

179 points by BvS 16y ago

I think it's pretty easy to miss Gates' point. He said that you'll be able to find the best *lectures in the world which will be better than any single University. With initiatives like MIT OpenCourseWare and iTunes U, this isn't that hard to imagine. I think most HN readers wouldn't doubt the power of a motivated, passionate individual when it comes to learning. To me, the takeaway point that is most interesting is Gates' desire to break down the barriers to higher education and the transfer of knowledge. He also recognizes the declining value of a Bachelor's Degree. Educational Institutions will always be vital to the education of "tomorrow's leaders," but the current paradigm is flawed and I like where Gates seems to be going with this.

BvS 16y ago

I agree with most of what he says except for US books beeing to long. I recognized it when I spend a year in the US as an exchange student. The books really are longer than in Germany but I actually consider it to be a good thing. Sometimes explaining something in 3 sentences makes it easier and therefor faster to understand than saying it in 1 sentence which you have to read over and over agin to get it.

sliverstorm 16y ago
I haven't experienced college-level textbooks to be particularly full of clutter, but K-12 textbooks were full of useless cruft. (not that children in kindergarten have textbooks)
- deleted 16y ago
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kxs 16y ago
Well, tastes differ, but I tend to get bored pretty quick and can't stand verbose texts. In my mind they have to be briefly worded and exact and that's pretty hard to come by. Uwe Schönings "Theoretische Informatik- kurz gefasst" (similar to: Gems of Theoretical Computer Science) is an example of what I have in mind. It's hard to find something like that, most books are a pain to read (in my opinion).

franksalim 16y ago

Saw this by chance on twitter: http://twitter.com/BillGates/status/19764971764 http://twitter.com/BillGates/status/19764971764 "I’ve been spending time watching some of the courses on www.khanacademy.org – many of which are quite good. More coming on GatesNotes..." For what it's worth, I think he is right. You can learn a tremendous amount by reading and watching talks on the Web.

robryan 16y ago
Those are excellent, I love how approaches everything in terms of the normal person who might find some concepts tricky and need a closer explanation. I've gone to lectures then watched one of these on the same content and he really explains it so much better. The thing lecturers tend to do is assume everyone in the class has been through the same set of classes before the current one and assume many things should be completely obvious and not need explanation, when often they do.
- deleted 16y ago
  [deleted]

barry-cotter 16y ago

That's great. Now please set up an organisation, whether profit or non-profit that will examine the content of the most common degree courses that teach something where there is a "core" to the field regardless of prior qualifications and certify that knowledge.

lsc 16y ago
Personally, I think it would be best to, as much as possible, disconnect the teaching and the certification. both are hard problems by themselves; when you put them together, you end up with what we have now.
- JesseAldridge 16y ago
  That's a really good point. The teacher is the certifier. Heh, no conflict of interest there... This is how we end up with grade inflation.

zyb09 16y ago

Well this is true if you want to be a software developer. You can get very skilled and competent just learning online. For everything else I don't know... I sure would get a little uncomfortable if my surgeon told me he skipped college and learned everything from tutorials before he gave me my anesthesia.

andreyf 16y ago
Well this is true if you want to be a software developer. Or a mathematician, director, physicist, screen writer, journalist, accountant, statistician, historian, designer, botanist, cook, mechanic, etc. Now that I think of it, most professions already have online communities for discussion and group learning of skills which one self-motivated enough to study. What's most blatantly missing is the accreditation: it's not easy to cheat the accreditation system at a University (mostly because the experience of academic culture is what gives the accreditation validity), but it's a lot easier to "cheat" online.
- siglesias 16y ago
  Whoa whoa whoa, WHAT? Historian, cook, screen writer, journalist, director? On what planet can directorial skills be conveyed via a lecture video clip? Did CalArts, which graduated Tim Burton, John Lasseter, Pete Docter, Joe Ranft, and countless other masters of animation do so simply by showing them what amounted to the same stock lectures with some automated method of remote feedback? Or was it instead significantly in part a communal learning experience that involved peer criticism and one on one tutelage from professors who were in the room with them as they drew and developed their craft? I'm sorry, but believe it or not, not all professional skills can be remotely acquired without a kind of human transference of intangible, personable skills. Education in higher academia is about much more than the acquisition of particular facts--it's a culture, practice, and way of life. Critical ideas are meant to be discussed in person, ruminated on, and debated in real, highly dynamic discussions. Real life work environments, especially in software companies, are ones in which critical, GROUP brainstorming dynamics are particularly important, because oftentimes the answer doesn't lie in the answer key in the back of the book, but rather as a result of a group process of rumination, guess, check, and revision.

andreyf 16y ago

I agree with the title, but this seems short-sighted: Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world Lectures might be the optimal way of learning given the technology of the last millenium, but I don't think they'll survive even a century in this one. Computers are interactive interfaces, and "The Web" is an interactive medium. I have a feeling that whatever replaces lectures is going to take advantage of that.

glhaynes 16y ago
There are non-interactive digital media too such as podcasts... it seems like nearly every scholarly lecture I try to listen to, though, has the first 20-30 minutes taken up by (multiple!) fawning introductions or a reading of the class syllabus. I'm getting annoyed just thinking about it.
- andreyf 16y ago
  But podcasts aren't that different of a medium from radio, or mailing out tapes, for that matter. The web is different.
nkassis 16y ago
Things like this impress me: http://tryruby.org/ http://tryruby.org/ This could work for other subjects too.

scotty79 16y ago

I hope that he's not gonna jinx it like few of his earlier predictions.

tkahn6 16y ago

It would be nice if there was more substance to the article. It would be fascinating to know the reasons Gates has formed this opinion - the specific trends he's seeing and some actionable road-map to make this happen.

sorbus 16y ago

"He believes that no matter how you came about your knowledge, you should get credit for it. Whether it’s an MIT degree or if you got everything you know from lectures on the web, there needs to be a way to highlight that." So, is he planning to try to develop an organization to provide that certification (because that's one of the major functions of colleges, though how important it is varies by field) or is he just saying that someone should? I'm pretty sure that he could manage it if he wanted to, even though it could be a pretty huge challenge [I can think of a few ways to get the core of the process (knowledge verification) to work, but none of them are quite perfect, so I'm sure that the main problem would be pretty easy to solve].

okmjuhb 16y ago

A few loosely related thoughts as to why I'm fond of the University system (in response to the negative tone of some of the comments here and at techcrunch): - It's the only socially acceptable way to spend years simply learning as a full time job. - The argument that "lectures will soon be online" only makes sense if you believe that physically being present in lectures is the way that people gain knowledge in school. - University admissions maintain a level of intelligence in incoming classes that I don't think an online community ever could - so that the students who interact at a university are interacting in a productive way. - Physical colocation is just a better way of interacting with people than communicating online is.

andreyf 16y ago
Responding in reverse order: - "Communicating online" is in its infancy. The way people communicate online now (facebook, twitter) is wholly different than 10 years ago, and will be wholly different 10 years from now. - I agree that University admissions provide a useful filter, but one may emerge online, as well. Already, the people you meet on HN are not the people you'll meet on 4chan. I wonder what an HN clone would be like if membership were applied for and kept only as long as you maintained a certain comment point average. - Agreed. A great deal of what Universities provide is a cultural submersion into a social class. This is hard, if not impossible, to replicate online. That said, it has nothing to do with learning. People can still learn online and go about indoctrinating in one social class or another in other ways. - Social norms follow progress, not vice versa. Whatever Universities will be like in 1000 years won't be socially acceptable when it first appears.
- philwelch 16y ago
  The way people communicate online now (facebook, twitter) is wholly different than 10 years ago, and will be wholly different 10 years from now. Different, yes. Better? Ten years ago, the conversations I had on mailing lists had a lot more potential than you can fit in 140 characters. The trend isn't very promising.
  - dagw 16y ago

varjag 16y ago

Wasn't Gates a dropout? Of course, a successful man, but I would not put that much weight in his opinion on education.

lsc 16y ago
Eh, it seems to me that if he knows how to do well /without/ a formal education, he may be in a position where he knows more than most people about what parts of 'education' are important, and which parts are not.
- deleted 16y ago
  [deleted]
- sliverstorm 16y ago
  Well, at least in his field of expertise. Different fields depend on education in different ways. Really, what he was best at as I gather is summed up by this: After reading the January 1975 issue of Popular Electronics that demonstrated the Altair 8800, Gates contacted Micro Instrumentation and Telemetry Systems (MITS), the creators of the new microcomputer, to inform them that he and others were working on a BASIC interpreter for the platform. In reality, Gates and Allen did not have an Altair and had not written code for it; they merely wanted to gauge MITS's interest. MITS president Ed Roberts agreed to meet them for a demo, and over the course of a few weeks they developed an Altair emulator that ran on a minicomputer, and then the BASIC interpreter. The demonstration, held at MITS's offices in Albuquerque, was a success and resulted in a deal with MITS to distribute the interpreter as Altair BASIC
  - lsc 16y ago
    right. my point was that gates is clearly /very good/ at something. I mean, from what I read, he's no slouch as a computer guy, either, I mean, how often are projects like that delivered on time? Sure, he made a dishonest claim about what he had, but when called on it, he delivered.
    - 16y ago

Mz 16y ago

Education and accreditation are two different things. I think for some things, just knowing it is valuable and accreditation is not so important. I have thought a lot about how to effectively convey information. I think the web is a good means to do some of that. I don't know that the university function of accreditation will so readily go away. I think that's probably unrealistic.

lsc 16y ago
the thing is, accreditation, in and of itself, is pretty goddamn difficult. Schools do a horrible job of accrediting software engineers. Generally speaking, accreditation doesn't really start working well until job roles stop changing so fast.
- Mz 16y ago
  I homeschooled my sons. My sons are "twice exceptional" -- gifted with learning (and other) disabilities. I have always told them that their best hope of making their lives work will be to found their own company. They can very effectively get things done but I don't think they can work for other people. When you found your own company, you don't need accreditation. Either the product sells or it doesn't. Similarly, I spent a lot of time very sick. I made a lot of dietary and lifestyle changes and I am healthier now than I have ever been in my life. I am not a doctor but I am also not impressed with the current healthcare model followed in the US. I think I have a cheaper and more effective alternative to offer. Study after study after study shows that diet and lifestyle are huge factors in all the major (deadly) illnesses, like heart disease, diabetes, cancer. But doctors mostly don't push for dietary and lifestyle changes. They are mostly in the business of selling pills and surgeries. A big part of why they don't is that people aren't very receptive. Many people just want an easy answer. And it's quite hard to make money off of promoting lifestyle changes. So to me, the big challenges are how to more effectively convey information and how to monetize it. I am still trying to decide if I should largely abandon my current websites and start over in a new space. I don't yet know the answer to that. But I do know that I have narrowed it down to "education is the answer" and I do know that I am very good at some things that other people seem to not be good at. I know this from years spent on homeschooling forums where for some particularly difficult things, I often was the only person who had much to say. So I find this article very relevant at the moment and encouraging. I don't know if I have much to really contribute to the conversation that will be of interest to others or that they will value. Perhaps I just need to talk about it. For my own goals, accreditation is unimportant. The piece that matters is whether or not the information is conveyed adequately, which my current websites are not doing. I think I will be doing something educational on the web in the future. So I am kind of excited to see this piece.

ja27 16y ago

Why shouldn't it be? For most of my college career, I was taught in a non-interactive lecture (from 15 to 300 students at a time). Sometimes the lectures were even being recorded or simulcast to remote locations. The lecturer often had no idea who I was. In graduate school, I got a good look at the "sausage factory" of how many core computer science class lectures are really developed. Unless it's an area of research and publication for the professor, they do a minimal amount of work on their lecture notes and exams. In some cases, the same professor taught the same subject year after year. Sometimes this resulted in progressively better notes, but sometimes not. In other cases, the class rotated among professors. They often took each other's lecture notes and used them with varying degrees of revision. Only when a course was a true passion of the professor was the lecture anything much more than what could be gleaned from a couple of textbooks on the topic. Beyond the lectures, most of the labs and assignments were handled by grad student teaching assistants. I also got to see many of my friends go through the TA machine in grad school. The rare lucky ones got to TA a course related to their research, but most TAs were assigned to courses where they only knew as much as they'd learned in their own undergrad experience in that course. A few TAs would scramble to get up to speed. The smart ones would do the bare minimum for the course and focus on their research. Then there are the textbooks. I look at the dead tree debris that on my bookshelves from my nearly dozen years of higher education and very few books contain anything beyond what's on Wikipedia today. I can look back at a topic like "operating systems" and cringe. This was a undergraduate course that rotated amongst professors. At the time I took it, I'd already been on a dozen operating systems including VMS, NeXTStep and Dynix, played with Minix code, read Bach and Tanenbaum, etc. The PhD student assigned to teach my class had an undergrad in linguistics. I believe he'd never even logged into any unix system, much less had an operating systems course himself. He even dropped out late in the semester and disappeared. I damn near asked for a refund, but I took my grade and moved on. There's no reason that a few passionate people on the web couldn't top that.

pjscott 16y ago
My operating systems class devoted a whole lecture to how OSes deal with tape drives. Meanwhile, I don't think we covered networking. This was three years ago, and the course material was essentially unchanged from the 1970s. When it comes to computers, the internet has been better than most undergraduate programs for a while now. And it's only getting better.

kloncks 16y ago

I wouldn't have believed this earlier. But, today we're getting ever closer to it. Best example: http://www.academicearth.org http://www.academicearth.org

mcgraw 16y ago

I can't remember if it was Stanford or Berkeley, but one of them was going to open up the ability to earn a full degree online. I'm not sure when, but I heard that transition has a lot of students at the university in an uproar. One step at a time and the elite education will be everywhere, though it'll still cost an arm-and-a-leg. I am huge on web-based education. I can't imagine what my skill-set would look like if I had access to today's web when I was growing up. I would love to build a website that brings educators together, from anywhere, to instruct groups of 10-15 people on specific topics-of-choice -- for free. Edit: Looked it up, apparently it was UC in general -- http://bit.ly/aCmsNF http://bit.ly/aCmsNF "The idea is that UC could become the first top-tier American university to offer a bachelor's degree over the Internet."

sliverstorm 16y ago
In reality I should look this up, but I'm guessing Berkeley. They are a public Uni, and if you look on iTunes U they have an impressive collection.
- nkassis 16y ago
  I've been checking out some of their EECS classes and they are very well made.
itiztv 16y ago
http://scpd.stanford.edu/becomeAStudent/deliveryOptions.jsp http://scpd.stanford.edu/becomeAStudent/deliveryOptions.jsp

Ghostis 16y ago

Amen. I'm taking a class in Abstract Algrebra in the fall. I already have a general overview of the topic and have been working some practice problems from online resources. It's amazing what's available these days if you want to teach yourself.

Charuru 16y ago

Bill Gates probably wants you to do labs with the Kinect and get automatically graded.

stralep 16y ago

I was learning Scheme from old SICP lectures online. Best lecture EVER. Why would professors need to make same lectures every year? It make more sense to make new lectures only when they have something new or better to say.

dagw 16y ago
You can't ask questions and start discussions during pre-recorded lectures. The important part of a lecture isn't just the words being spoken by the lecturer, but also the impromptu discussions they lead to.
- muuh-gnu 16y ago
  Then you also need to tape the questions and answers and assemble a video FAQ accompanying the lectures. Or let other people support the lectures and answer upcomming questions. I think that its a collosal waste of time and ressources to make great lecturers repeat the same lecture over and over and over again to a small, limited number of students, instead of letting them record a larger number of one-time lectures. My favourite example is Salman Khan. If he had to repeat a few chosen topics over and over, he would never had the chance of creating a body of work as large and comprehensive as his academy. He said about that: "With so little effort on my own part, I can empower an unlimited amount of people for all time. I can't imagine a better use of my time." By the way, in the recorded SICP lectures, there arent actually _that_ many interesting questions asked. If Abelson and Sussman thought your way and prefered live interaction just in order to be able to answer more questions, thousands of people during the last 25 years would have not been able to experience them _at all_. It is not fair to reduce great lecturers to mere question answerers, IMO the accompanying Q&A sessions always account for a very small part of the value of a lecture, i.e. just to fill a occasional gap.
  - dagw 16y ago
    Don't get me wrong, recorded lectures are great. I love the SICP lectures and I'm really happy the web as given me the opportunity to see them. However if I was given the choice I'd far prefer to have had the chance to be there live and discuss the material with the lecturers, and if the lecturers at my university had said "I'm not going to given any lectures, since I recorded them a few years ago" I'd feel very ripped off. At the end of the, as good as recorded lectures are, they'll never replace "the best" teaching experiences.

ams6110 16y ago

The established brick and mortar higher ed industry is not going to have their livelihood taken away without a fight. More fundamentally, very few individuals aged 18 - 25 have the self-discipline to complete the equivalent of an undergraduate education on-line, with no class schedules, no set exam times, nothing to enforce any routine of learning. Some do no doubt, but not anything near the number that are able to do it now within the structure of a traditional university or college.

vorg 16y ago
You mentioned "the equivalent of an undergrad education". This "equivalent" can have different levels (associate, bachelors, with honors), number of majors, average grade, testing criteria, testing jurisdiction, duration, how recent, etc. When the brick and mortar higher ed industry dies, perhaps the concept of achieving some recognized education "equivalency" will die with it. Everything will be ongoing learning, never attaining.
- nkassis 16y ago
  While it's not perfect, a college degree is usually a decent indicator that a person has at least heard of the stuff you want. A new way to quantify level or progression of a person would have to replace it. There is no reason why the current Universities can't provide this for online courses. Online courses do not mean that there won't be any Profs and TAs. But you just won't be going to their office on preset hours and sit in a classroom on specific hours. Undergrad education in certain subject really doesn't change from year to year. You could build a course and do small adjustments year to year. What you would provide as a service in my view is the human help. What I hope won't happen is that Universities will turn into for profit course giving institutions. We need the R&D work done at Universities. I'd be suprised if the government would want to continue funding Universities as they do now if for profit website could do it cheaper. Do the current for profit school like the University of Phoenix do any research?

drylight 16y ago

I wouldn't count on any predictions made by Gates. He said that the spam problem would be solved. And that was meant to happen some 5 years ago.

0ffworlder 16y ago
What about gmail? I haven't got any spam for years...

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

joegaudet 16y ago

I have never found the fidelity of online learning to be _anywhere_ in the ball park of in-institution learning. Especially in the areas of humanities and so forth, but also in Engineering (I hold a BSCEng, and am currently a Masters student) labs, conversation, community learning are all essential. I also can't help but think of the Socratic method, and how at least I personally tend to learn in that manner. Simply being presented with information as fact doesn't really do it for me. Being guided, and assisted at coming to the truth on my own always leaves me with a much deeper connection to the knowledge I've acquired. And I feel that requires as certain measure of realtime interaction with someone who is an expert in the field. Simply watching their lectures while informative, does not seem to be enough. While this may change in the future, given that online learning is in its infancy, I think 5 years is a bit short term. Especially considering the pace at which the established institution of education moves.

shadowsun7 16y ago

I'm curious as to how Gates compares America to Asia and says that Asia is currently beating the West (example he gives is that Asia has smaller, shorter textbooks and yet scores higher on global acadeimic tests). Whereas in Asia people are scrambling to emulate the Western education system. They see the American education system as better at fostering originality and creativity. And there's a bias towards rote in Eastern education systems (at the moment). Could it be that this is a grass-is-greener on the other side phenomenon?

Ardit20 16y ago
Nope. Its a find something to support your point and bend it a little bit. I was thinking on the point he made though that maybe textbooks in America are thicker because America has more scientific knowledge than Asia and maybe the books get updated more often and maybe they are more in depth. Basically, I do not think you can just take one variable and compare it to another and proclaim that's the reason.
- speleding 16y ago
  I have a masters degree from both a US university and one in Europe. It always struck me how the American books were consistently thicker then the the ones I got in Europe. The contents was the same basically, just much more condensed writing. The American books I could read almost like a novel, whereas before I had to carefully study each page, sometimes read it two times to understand what it meant. Just a matter of style really, I wouldn't read too much into it. Perhaps the fact that in the US you have to pay for your own text books is a driver too.

tectonic 16y ago

On the other hand, I just finished taking a couple of courses online and I have to say that I really missed the hands-on and interpersonal (study groups, discussions, etc.) aspects of a real classroom environment.

watmough 16y ago

Gates is years behind the curve as always. As a concrete example, the Apple-provided WWDC 2010 sessions on iOS 4.0 and OS X are some of the best educational materials I've ever seen. Well recorded, tested material, and, this is key, absolutely knowledgable presenters. The people that built those systems. I doubt any university, at any price, could provide lecture materials as broad as these. Add in the fact that I can watch these at my own pace on an iPad, literally anywhere, and scrub back and forwards, and there's no excuse for missing anything. I think back to my sausage-factory university classes, and pretty-much it was mostly second-rate stuff, with a few notable exceptions (Guest lecture from SPJ on graph-reduction, in 87 was probably the high-point). It's sad to think I spent four years of my life doing a bachelors, when I could probably cover the material about 50% faster now, and retain it significantly better. In short, Gates is late. It'll be way faster than 5 years. Hell, the new SICP lectures are already available I believe, and I'm sure geology, physics, maths, stats will all follow.

Hari_Seldon 16y ago
Bill Gates is not exactly known for his prophetic powers :-)

robryan 16y ago

There are a couple of things I can get from attending uni that I can't get from learning online. - Focus - Sitting at the computer it is very easily to be distracted trying to pick up a challenging new concept. I find this even more true about things I don't derive any immediate benefit from, as in it is easier to concentrate on learning a library I'm going to use in a freelance project than say an obscure statistical model for a class. Sitting in the lecture give me that chance to clear my head from most distractions and focus on the content. - Mindset - I head into uni, it usually gets me in the right mindset for learning and completing tasks. I don't get that sitting at home. I would also add the guidance of some lecturers/ supervisors but this point really depends where you are. I can't say in my own experience this couldn't have been replaced online although their are moments when having such experienced teachers can help. Edit- I would also add that these issues could be solved by getting together at a co-working space with some like minded others. I guess a hybrid model like that could have some merit, the educational institute acts as a network to connect like minded people for online study. Maybe they could also have a staff member that has a hands off role and just answers questions over email for a much reduced fee over the traditional system.

jsz0 16y ago

Why hasn't online learning trickled down to the lower levels? Public schools could really benefit from having a big catalog of online course material to offer students. I realize there's a need and benefit to instructor led courses but our entire education policy in the US seems to focus on the lowest common denominator. Why not let the best and brightest push forward with self paced learning? Give them more choices. Let them start focusing on their unique interests. This would possibly give teachers more time to help the kids who are falling behind. I would have done much better in school with self paced learning.

mkr-hn 16y ago
It wasn't until we had something like Youtube and widespread broadband that it became viable for even the poorest schools. That was only 2005. Look at how quickly stuff like Khan Academy and other things sprung up after Youtube launched. That's only 5 years. Schools have to be conservative in things like this because the things they teach kids will serve as the foundation of their lives. Give it another 5 or 10, and I think we'll see an online component as a standard part of public schooling.

stretchwithme 16y ago

Will it be fine lectures that make education so effective? Or just-in-time learning customized precisely to the user?

makecheck 16y ago

I think the real value of the web is to give students free access to the nitty-gritty details of potential careers. These details would not serve as a replacement for education (I feel that's impossible, since hands-on lab experience and access to expensive equipment, etc. are so important to competency). Rather, they would help to ensure that students are embarking on a path that they're sure they want. Some people spend a couple of years and thousands of dollars before discovering that their major isn't really what they thought it would be. And by then, they're just unhappy; they have invested too much to turn back, and don't really have passion anymore. I strongly suspect that a lot of people who do crappy work simply got into this kind of trap; if they'd had the chance to find out more about other jobs in detail, they may have made a different choice of major, and been much happier and more productive somewhere else.

DaniFong 16y ago

Much of the best education already does come from the web, Bill. It's just that most of society doesn't recognize it.

motters 16y ago

I think Gates is right, and this is something which I've also ranted about in the past. The cost of university education has been increasing, there are an increasing number of people wanting university education and that level of education is increasingly expected in the workforce. There is also a significant fraction of the population who cannot afford university education (don't have wealthy parents) or do not want to take out gigantic loans which may take them decades to repay. University education is no longer a ticket to a high paying job, and that has been the case for quite some time, so large education loans can't necessarily be justified on a financial basis. Also this year many applicants have been turned away by universities due to budget cuts which means that they have fewer places, and that trend could go on for a few more years at least. The solution isn't new. The Open University has been around for a long time, and something like OU, augmented with all the media content that the internet can deliver, would seem to be the logical way to deliver higher education at lower cost.

Ardit20 16y ago
And lower quality. I do not see anyone replacing an Oxford place with OU or any university place with OU. I think, though I might be very much wrong, it caters to niches, rather than the core of university market which is 18 to 21 year old. The difficulty with OU is that it is not too easy to motivate yourself. In uni you know you are there to study - kind of - with OU or any other virtual replacement its a bit like a project which easily can drift because really nothing has changed with your life. You'll just get a bunch of stuff in the post and some online logging. Also, there seems to be many generalisations on your comment and almost wishful thinking. Sort of saying, things are bad, so this replacement is the alternative so lets do it, rather than judging the replacement on its merits.
- motters 16y ago
  The core university market seems to be voting with its feet. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-10903088 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-10903088
  - 16y ago

Prisen 16y ago

There seems to be a consensus on HN that it's very important for startup founders to live in the same location. Face-to-face time is considered so important that VCs say they will not even consider investing in distributed startups. The same theme is strong when describing the hassles with outsourcing. Yet a lot of people completely ignore this for education. Suddenly there is no value in spending time with classmates/teachers. It's all very strange to me.

jacoblyles 16y ago

According to Mr. Gates the best University level education will come from the web in five years. But K-12 still has to suck.

uio 16y ago

University and high school is a way to employ people who study and obey rules. If you dry this fountain and this job get outsourced, less people will get incentives to study. A society without universities would be a very disrupted society. Power is university supported.

uio 16y ago

I would give a robot doctor to those that considered education as a simple fact. You should have time to consider that your "doctor" is not so nice as a real one. So when your "robot doctor" is acceptable to you, then I should consider your consideration for education.

rbanffy 16y ago

Because internet education should be enough for anyone... Now, seriously, Gates has a very weak track record on predicting the future of technology. That's why Microsoft was never known to be a first mover into any new market. It's really hard to predict the future - I was watching 2001 with my 14 year-old son last week and couldn't help but laugh that in an enormous space station an what seemed high orbit you would have AT&T phone booths. "Mobile devices will be able to send and receive messages, but it will be expensive and unusual to use them to receive an individual video stream" On ordering flowers online: "You'll be able to watch the florist arrange the bouquet, change your mind if you want, and replace wilting roses with fresh anemones." "I believe that we’ll not only be using the keyboard and the mouse to interact, but during that time we will have perfected speech recognition and speech output well enough that those will become a standard part of the interface." (this is from mid 90's, IIRC) "I believe OS/2 is destined to be the most important operating system, and possibly program, of all time," which is right in a sense that NT was once OS/2 3.0 "Spam will be a thing of the past in two years' time," "We will never make a 32-bit operating system," (that was when he introduced the MSX in Japan) The low-end of the education will sure improve with the internet. Kids with mobile phones and computers can quickly google stuff up and browse the wikipedia to get some deeper information beyond their textbooks offer. It will augment, but it won't replace physical schools anytime soon.

contextfree 16y ago
It's not that hard to predict the future of technology if you follow the relevant fields of science/engineering. There are usually a set of core problems that everyone in the field is aware of and has been working on for decades. What is difficult, is predicting the timing of mass market viability of those technologies. (So in this respect it's like how many people had identified a housing bubble in 2004, but anyone who'd bet heavily on its imminent collapse then would've lost out.) Microsoft in particular actually have a track record of entering a market prematurely with an unpolished entry (often because the hardware resources/architecture/maturity of the underlying academic field aren't yet there to support a polished entry), failing, shelving the idea, and then being caught flatfooted N years later when someone else enters with something more polished.

notahacker 16y ago

Most students today realise that reading lecture notes n the course website is often an entirely adequate substitute for actually attending the lecture. But that misses the point. None of the knowledge or experiences I gained at university that have value to me today were obtained in a lecture theatre; nor could they be readily substituted for by a website.

kingkawn 16y ago

Best class I ever took was last year, the professor had been doing chalk and board since 1962, he was amazing, and it was because I was there. Maybe after his generation is gone we won't lose anything from communicating entirely via web, but to get the full breadth of knowledge from the lingering analogites among us, you gotta roll out of bed.

praeclarum 16y ago

Dearest Bill Gates, You are a very clever man. You see trends that most people ignore. You're probably right in this assertion. But you suck at time scales. It's like your fracking achilles heel. The world just doesn't change that fast. Dude, it just doesn't. Peace out, -Frank

ljegou 16y ago

As a complement, here is an article about China university admission development program: http://www.espacestemps.net/document8305.html http://www.espacestemps.net/document8305.html The context is clearly different, but the contrast seemed interesting. An excerpt: "The reasoning behind this decision was economic. The government reckoned that every million new graduates would raise China’s gdp by 2%. Not only did university graduates make skilled employees and attract higher incomes, but education itself was an engine of economic growth."

astrofinch 16y ago

"Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world" This is already true--for just one example, see academicearth.org. I suppose Bill has to make it a prediction for the future for the press to be able to digest it. I often tell people how absurd modern education is given the existence of video lectures (and the printing press, for that matter). They usually tell me that video lectures aren't a replacement for live lectures. When I ask if they've actually watched any video lectures, they usually haven't. Best advantage of video lectures: I can download them with the netvideohunter firefox extension and watch them 1.5x speed in VLC, which actually improves my comprehension because I'm less bored. Free textbooks are probably even better. I'm too busy with my side project to study, but here are two that look AWESOME: http://www.math.wisc.edu/~keisler/calc.html http://www.math.wisc.edu/~keisler/calc.html http://www.introecon.com/ http://www.introecon.com/ I'll be playing my fiddle when the educational establishment burns.

itiztv 16y ago

http://www.extension.harvard.edu/ http://www.extension.harvard.edu/ http://scpd.stanford.edu/becomeAStudent/deliveryOptions.jsp http://scpd.stanford.edu/becomeAStudent/deliveryOptions.jsp http://ischool.syr.edu/academics/distance/index.aspx http://ischool.syr.edu/academics/distance/index.aspx do we see a trend here