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I had bought about $50 worth of BTC a year ago and it's now worth $800. Did the bitcoin economy grow that much in the last year? I've heard of increasing adopti

I had bought about $50 worth of BTC a year ago and it's now worth $800. Did the bitcoin economy grow that much in the last year? I've heard of increasing adoption by banks and governments but I don't know to what extent they're investing. I don't follow it closely and at this valuation, I have no idea whether it's a good investment or not. Should I sell it now before the inevitable crash? Should I buy more? I don't trust myself to understand this kind of speculation yet.

ChrisRazzzz 9y ago
Ask yourself first, why did the value climb 16x? If you cant answer that then I caution purchasing more. I would also spend some time understanding what "investing" is vs what speculating\gambling is. This is gambling.
- Frogolocalypse 9y ago
  > Ask yourself first, why did the value climb 16x? Oh I can do that. I expect it to be 100x or more greater than what it is today. The reason why it is 16 as opposed to 8 or 32 is simply the speed of the uptake. It is going up in value because it is in the process of deflating the fixed-asset debt bubble. The only real question is, how big is that bubble. > I would also spend some time understanding what "investing" Investing is understanding what the value proposition is, and investing accordingly. You don't, and that's fine. Don't assume that other people have your understanding of the asset class in question though. The question you should be asking is, why do you think it's important when other people invest in things that you don't understand.
  - pryelluw 9y ago
    Since you are clearly very well informed (no sarcasm intended), do you mind helping me with something Ive been struggling with? In your opinion, what is the intrinsic value of Bitcoin?
    - Frogolocalypse 9y ago
      > In your opinion, what is the intrinsic value of Bitcoin? I use the 1:10000 rule (https://xkcd.com/1053/ https://xkcd.com/1053/) for this argument. It is my opinion that the intrinsic value of bitcoin is far far greater than anyone really comprehends. People generally are too focused on people just buying and selling the asset, but not about the cryptographic proof, and incentive structure that perpetuates the network functioning. So when people like to ask what the intrinsic value of bitcoin is, I say : You are thinking of the store of value property without the cryptographic property that secures it. You are talking about it as one would talk about valuable shells, and even shell sellers, and not the security that separates it from all forms of value exchange before it. To understand the intrinsic value of bitcoin it is good to use the analogy of an envelope. So i ask you : does an envelope have intrinsic value? If I have a letter that I need to send securely, would I prefer to send it open, and ready to be read? Or would I prefer for it to be sent within the confines of an envelope? Now let's think... would I prefer to just leave an open envelope, or would I think it necessary to put some seal across it to ensure that it isn't opened, and read whilst en-route. Does a sealable envelope have more intrinsic value than an unsealable one? Hmm... but what if someone can counterfeit the seal? I need some method of ensuring that the message I want to get to that person isn't read, and preferably, isn't even identified as a message. That's when you need to get lawyers involved. Sounds expensive. There's obviously something intrinsically valuable about such a service, because many people pay oh-so-very-much money for it. Now let's imagine we're not talking about letters, we're talking about money. Would you address a $100 note through the mail to your child for their birthday? You'd pay for a stamp at least. Would you encase it in an envelope that you paid for at the local post-shop? Hmm... bill in the envelope. Anyone will be able to see that it is money. Perhaps encase it in a card? What if it is $1000? $10,000? $10 million? Does the protection service of an envelope somehow decrease because the value of the contents of the package increases? It's the opposite, isn't it? Bitcoin is both the cryptographically sealed envelope, and the network to deliver it. What say you? Is an envelope intrinsically valuable?
      - corndoge 9y ago
        so your argument is that its value is just that it's cryptographically secure?
- CodingGuy 9y ago
  https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin This is the reason why the price is exploding.
  - 24gttghh 9y ago
    I think this one is a bit more telling: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=NG&q=bitcoin https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=NG&q=b... (it's for Nigeria) And the global map for since 2004: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin With the search term being most popular in Nigeria.
    - CodingGuy 9y ago
      Actually Google AdWords says that you have an average of 40k searches per month for "bitcoin" in Nigeria and more than 1 mio. searches/month in the US.
      - 24gttghh 9y ago
        Right but the map seems to present the data in a way that implies those searches for bitcoin in Nigeria are more popular than other searches for their given country.
  - heurist 9y ago
    That only indicates demand for botcoin, not the reason for demand. Though emerging markets adopting it might explain the growth. It doesn't help assess bitcoin's value except to indicate it might have additional stability as a currency in some small nations.

ChrisRazzzz 9y ago

Ask yourself first, why did the value climb 16x? If you cant answer that then I caution purchasing more. I would also spend some time understanding what "investing" is vs what speculating\gambling is. This is gambling.

Frogolocalypse 9y ago
> Ask yourself first, why did the value climb 16x? Oh I can do that. I expect it to be 100x or more greater than what it is today. The reason why it is 16 as opposed to 8 or 32 is simply the speed of the uptake. It is going up in value because it is in the process of deflating the fixed-asset debt bubble. The only real question is, how big is that bubble. > I would also spend some time understanding what "investing" Investing is understanding what the value proposition is, and investing accordingly. You don't, and that's fine. Don't assume that other people have your understanding of the asset class in question though. The question you should be asking is, why do you think it's important when other people invest in things that you don't understand.
- pryelluw 9y ago
  Since you are clearly very well informed (no sarcasm intended), do you mind helping me with something Ive been struggling with? In your opinion, what is the intrinsic value of Bitcoin?
  - Frogolocalypse 9y ago
    > In your opinion, what is the intrinsic value of Bitcoin? I use the 1:10000 rule (https://xkcd.com/1053/ https://xkcd.com/1053/) for this argument. It is my opinion that the intrinsic value of bitcoin is far far greater than anyone really comprehends. People generally are too focused on people just buying and selling the asset, but not about the cryptographic proof, and incentive structure that perpetuates the network functioning. So when people like to ask what the intrinsic value of bitcoin is, I say : You are thinking of the store of value property without the cryptographic property that secures it. You are talking about it as one would talk about valuable shells, and even shell sellers, and not the security that separates it from all forms of value exchange before it. To understand the intrinsic value of bitcoin it is good to use the analogy of an envelope. So i ask you : does an envelope have intrinsic value? If I have a letter that I need to send securely, would I prefer to send it open, and ready to be read? Or would I prefer for it to be sent within the confines of an envelope? Now let's think... would I prefer to just leave an open envelope, or would I think it necessary to put some seal across it to ensure that it isn't opened, and read whilst en-route. Does a sealable envelope have more intrinsic value than an unsealable one? Hmm... but what if someone can counterfeit the seal? I need some method of ensuring that the message I want to get to that person isn't read, and preferably, isn't even identified as a message. That's when you need to get lawyers involved. Sounds expensive. There's obviously something intrinsically valuable about such a service, because many people pay oh-so-very-much money for it. Now let's imagine we're not talking about letters, we're talking about money. Would you address a $100 note through the mail to your child for their birthday? You'd pay for a stamp at least. Would you encase it in an envelope that you paid for at the local post-shop? Hmm... bill in the envelope. Anyone will be able to see that it is money. Perhaps encase it in a card? What if it is $1000? $10,000? $10 million? Does the protection service of an envelope somehow decrease because the value of the contents of the package increases? It's the opposite, isn't it? Bitcoin is both the cryptographically sealed envelope, and the network to deliver it. What say you? Is an envelope intrinsically valuable?
    - corndoge 9y ago
      so your argument is that its value is just that it's cryptographically secure?
CodingGuy 9y ago
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin This is the reason why the price is exploding.
- 24gttghh 9y ago
  I think this one is a bit more telling: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=NG&q=bitcoin https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=NG&q=b... (it's for Nigeria) And the global map for since 2004: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin With the search term being most popular in Nigeria.
  - CodingGuy 9y ago
    Actually Google AdWords says that you have an average of 40k searches per month for "bitcoin" in Nigeria and more than 1 mio. searches/month in the US.
    - 24gttghh 9y ago
      Right but the map seems to present the data in a way that implies those searches for bitcoin in Nigeria are more popular than other searches for their given country.
- heurist 9y ago
  That only indicates demand for botcoin, not the reason for demand. Though emerging markets adopting it might explain the growth. It doesn't help assess bitcoin's value except to indicate it might have additional stability as a currency in some small nations.