6 ms·

> As long as you don't buy in at one of the speculative bubbles I'm not so sure about that. You could have bought BTC anytime before the past week or so and i

> As long as you don't buy in at one of the speculative bubbles I'm not so sure about that. You could have bought BTC anytime before the past week or so and it would have appreciated significantly, regardless of whether you bought it in a peak or trough. It's just a question of magnitude. E.g. if you bought 1 BTC at the lowest or highest price in 2015 you would still have outrageous returns on it today. This is not to say it will continue being the case going forward but it's crazy to look back at.

krrrh 9y ago
Let’s see how everyone feels after the next correction. The headlines today seem to change every time I load google news. Up 10%, down 20%. There’s no way to know where it will go from here.
- knownothing 9y ago
  Yes. But I already stated that in my response. We do not know the future and you shouldn't trust anyone who tells you differently. My point is that there have been skeptics and people saying it's a bubble or too volatile for nearly all of Bitcoin's history. But if you bought BTC and held it--at any high or low, for any significant amount of time--you made a lot of money (either realized or unrealized, that doesn't matter).
  - goodside 9y ago
    > But if you bought BTC and held it--at any high or low, for any significant amount of time--you made a lot of money (either realized or unrealized, that doesn't matter). This isn't entirely true. If you bought Bitcoin anywhere near the height of the late-2013 mania (which is of course a lot of people, since that's why the price was so high), you lost half your value within a month or two and then had to hold until 2017 before you started to break even. You lost 70% if you held for a year and a half and gave up. The market from June to November 2011 was even more disastrous, falling from $29 to almost $2 and not recovering until February 2013. These are obviously cherry-picked dates, and you'd clearly have made a profit eventually if you kept holding, but it's still very possible to hold Bitcoin for years and lose money.
    - knownothing 9y ago
      Right. You would had to have bought and held until today for my claim to be true (and it is only true at the time I write this). But it's still the case that you could have bought in any peak or trough in the periods you're referring to and still have significant realized/unrealized gains right now.
      - krrrh 9y ago
        Sure it’s true, but it’s a tautology to say it when something is at an all-time high.
        knownothing 9y ago
        What's your point? I basically say that in my posts.
      - csomar 9y ago
        The difficult part is holding through the bear period. I'm pretty sure not so many investors can do that.
        knownothing 9y ago
        Correct. The most difficult part of trading/investing/betting (call it what you want) is often confronting your own tolerance for risk and uncertainty.
- heurist 9y ago
  I had bought about $50 worth of BTC a year ago and it's now worth $800. Did the bitcoin economy grow that much in the last year? I've heard of increasing adoption by banks and governments but I don't know to what extent they're investing. I don't follow it closely and at this valuation, I have no idea whether it's a good investment or not. Should I sell it now before the inevitable crash? Should I buy more? I don't trust myself to understand this kind of speculation yet.
  - ChrisRazzzz 9y ago
    Ask yourself first, why did the value climb 16x? If you cant answer that then I caution purchasing more. I would also spend some time understanding what "investing" is vs what speculating\gambling is. This is gambling.
    - Frogolocalypse 9y ago
      > Ask yourself first, why did the value climb 16x? Oh I can do that. I expect it to be 100x or more greater than what it is today. The reason why it is 16 as opposed to 8 or 32 is simply the speed of the uptake. It is going up in value because it is in the process of deflating the fixed-asset debt bubble. The only real question is, how big is that bubble. > I would also spend some time understanding what "investing" Investing is understanding what the value proposition is, and investing accordingly. You don't, and that's fine. Don't assume that other people have your understanding of the asset class in question though. The question you should be asking is, why do you think it's important when other people invest in things that you don't understand.
      - pryelluw 9y ago
        Since you are clearly very well informed (no sarcasm intended), do you mind helping me with something Ive been struggling with? In your opinion, what is the intrinsic value of Bitcoin?
        Frogolocalypse 9y ago
- mirimir 9y ago
  The thing is, for someone who bought a year or more ago, anything less than a 50% correction is small. Also, prudent folk take some of their winnings out of play.
  - Frogolocalypse 9y ago
    Bitcoin would have to drop 85% in value from where it is now to only have doubled in value over the past year. I'll take 100% yearly value growth any day of the week.
    - geezerjay 9y ago
      Your argument boils down to claiming that a pump and dump scheme is sound investment because those who enter early can still earn some cash when the bubble bursts. Ponzi schemes are similarly profitable but for some reason they are frowned upon.
      - mirimir 9y ago
        I agree with you that Bitcoin price is hugely speculative. There have been many bubbles. Most notably, $100->$1000->$200, in late 2013 through 2014, and $500->$10000->??? in 2016-2017. The future is unknowable, but arguably much of the overall ~10^6 increase since 2010 reflects real growth in demand. I mean, only some thousands were fully aware of Bitcoin in 2010-2011. Now billions are. Even so, I don't believe that it's a Ponzi scheme. Maybe someone controlling Mt Gox accounts orchestrated the 2013-2014 bubble. Mt Gox had huge market share back then. But now, I doubt that any player dominates enough to run a Ponzi scheme.
      - Frogolocalypse 9y ago
        No it doesn't. Bitcoin is money. It is sound money. The ponzi scheme is the fixed asset debt market, and bitcoin is its reckoning.
- lunchables 9y ago
  That's the same as it's been for the last few years. This isn't even a huge correction (yet) in bitcoin terms.

krrrh 9y ago

Let’s see how everyone feels after the next correction. The headlines today seem to change every time I load google news. Up 10%, down 20%. There’s no way to know where it will go from here.

knownothing 9y ago
Yes. But I already stated that in my response. We do not know the future and you shouldn't trust anyone who tells you differently. My point is that there have been skeptics and people saying it's a bubble or too volatile for nearly all of Bitcoin's history. But if you bought BTC and held it--at any high or low, for any significant amount of time--you made a lot of money (either realized or unrealized, that doesn't matter).
- goodside 9y ago
  > But if you bought BTC and held it--at any high or low, for any significant amount of time--you made a lot of money (either realized or unrealized, that doesn't matter). This isn't entirely true. If you bought Bitcoin anywhere near the height of the late-2013 mania (which is of course a lot of people, since that's why the price was so high), you lost half your value within a month or two and then had to hold until 2017 before you started to break even. You lost 70% if you held for a year and a half and gave up. The market from June to November 2011 was even more disastrous, falling from $29 to almost $2 and not recovering until February 2013. These are obviously cherry-picked dates, and you'd clearly have made a profit eventually if you kept holding, but it's still very possible to hold Bitcoin for years and lose money.
  - knownothing 9y ago
    Right. You would had to have bought and held until today for my claim to be true (and it is only true at the time I write this). But it's still the case that you could have bought in any peak or trough in the periods you're referring to and still have significant realized/unrealized gains right now.
    - krrrh 9y ago
      Sure it’s true, but it’s a tautology to say it when something is at an all-time high.
      - knownothing 9y ago
        What's your point? I basically say that in my posts.
    - csomar 9y ago
      The difficult part is holding through the bear period. I'm pretty sure not so many investors can do that.
      - knownothing 9y ago
        Correct. The most difficult part of trading/investing/betting (call it what you want) is often confronting your own tolerance for risk and uncertainty.
heurist 9y ago
I had bought about $50 worth of BTC a year ago and it's now worth $800. Did the bitcoin economy grow that much in the last year? I've heard of increasing adoption by banks and governments but I don't know to what extent they're investing. I don't follow it closely and at this valuation, I have no idea whether it's a good investment or not. Should I sell it now before the inevitable crash? Should I buy more? I don't trust myself to understand this kind of speculation yet.
- ChrisRazzzz 9y ago
  Ask yourself first, why did the value climb 16x? If you cant answer that then I caution purchasing more. I would also spend some time understanding what "investing" is vs what speculating\gambling is. This is gambling.
  - Frogolocalypse 9y ago
    > Ask yourself first, why did the value climb 16x? Oh I can do that. I expect it to be 100x or more greater than what it is today. The reason why it is 16 as opposed to 8 or 32 is simply the speed of the uptake. It is going up in value because it is in the process of deflating the fixed-asset debt bubble. The only real question is, how big is that bubble. > I would also spend some time understanding what "investing" Investing is understanding what the value proposition is, and investing accordingly. You don't, and that's fine. Don't assume that other people have your understanding of the asset class in question though. The question you should be asking is, why do you think it's important when other people invest in things that you don't understand.
    - pryelluw 9y ago
      Since you are clearly very well informed (no sarcasm intended), do you mind helping me with something Ive been struggling with? In your opinion, what is the intrinsic value of Bitcoin?
      - Frogolocalypse 9y ago
mirimir 9y ago
The thing is, for someone who bought a year or more ago, anything less than a 50% correction is small. Also, prudent folk take some of their winnings out of play.
- Frogolocalypse 9y ago
  Bitcoin would have to drop 85% in value from where it is now to only have doubled in value over the past year. I'll take 100% yearly value growth any day of the week.
  - geezerjay 9y ago
    Your argument boils down to claiming that a pump and dump scheme is sound investment because those who enter early can still earn some cash when the bubble bursts. Ponzi schemes are similarly profitable but for some reason they are frowned upon.
    - mirimir 9y ago
      I agree with you that Bitcoin price is hugely speculative. There have been many bubbles. Most notably, $100->$1000->$200, in late 2013 through 2014, and $500->$10000->??? in 2016-2017. The future is unknowable, but arguably much of the overall ~10^6 increase since 2010 reflects real growth in demand. I mean, only some thousands were fully aware of Bitcoin in 2010-2011. Now billions are. Even so, I don't believe that it's a Ponzi scheme. Maybe someone controlling Mt Gox accounts orchestrated the 2013-2014 bubble. Mt Gox had huge market share back then. But now, I doubt that any player dominates enough to run a Ponzi scheme.
    - Frogolocalypse 9y ago
      No it doesn't. Bitcoin is money. It is sound money. The ponzi scheme is the fixed asset debt market, and bitcoin is its reckoning.
lunchables 9y ago
That's the same as it's been for the last few years. This isn't even a huge correction (yet) in bitcoin terms.