5 ms·
Curious to know how long folks here think it will be till we see AVs rolling around cities in America? I'm (literally) banking on less than 5 years, but curious
by neom 9y ago
Curious to know how long folks here think it will be till we see AVs rolling around cities in America? I'm (literally) banking on less than 5 years, but curious what others think.
- anthonybsd 9y agoI think there's no chance we'll see them everywhere in less than 20 years. Right now they don't even do great in sandbox-controlled places with constant climate like Phoenix, AZ.
- soared 9y agoSource?
- anthonybsd 9y agohttps://www.wired.com/2017/02/self-driving-cars-cant-even-construction-zones/ https://www.wired.com/2017/02/self-driving-cars-cant-even-co... Every major city has construction zones. Right now this is a no-go for self-driving cars.
- neom 9y agow00t! Thankfully that's the point of my startup, city can tell car about stuff in advance of stuff happening (construction, 911, etc)
- jacquesm 9y agoWhy would they? Traffic signs and sensors should be all you need to navigate in traffic. If it takes some service to keep you safe then suddenly traffic is as safe as that service is reliable. And lots of this stuff is reactive or generated on the spot and the city will have no knowledge of it.
- neom 9y agoYour utopia sounds wonderful. However, that's not how bureaucracy and public safety work.
- jacquesm 9y agoI think you have that backwards. Bureaucracy and public safety are mis-aligned to the point where a service relying on bureaucracy with a direct impact on public safety is going to be an uphill battle. It also comes with some very interesting liability issues, such as: if the input data to that service is faulty and you then broadcast it to a bunch of AVs which react to it leading to an accident where would you assign blame?
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- dragonwriter 9y agoEven when the safety issues are resolved to the point where self-driving cars are at least as safe as humans in construction zones, they may be less safe than the same cars are elsewhere, and it may be a benefit to safety both to use self driving cars without an advance notice system and to use advance notice when available. OTOH, even if it becomes a safety non-issue, advance knowledge of construction, 911 responses in progress, and other events on the potential routes can be useful to route planning in computer navigation systems whether or not they are used in self-driving vehicles.
- ghaff 9y agoUrs Holzle of Google said the following at Structure a couple weeks back: "You don't want to have a self-driving car that depends on an uplink for its driving ability. Vehicle to vehicle communication has to be a plus not a required." As with detailed maps, other types of information would probably improve the overall safety and reliability of an autonomous vehicle. But, at some level, it needs to be able to drive on its own based on the environment it can directly sense.
- wil421 9y agoTo me autonomous vehicle means the car can drive me from point A to point B in any weather condition a normal person would drive in. I doubt it will be 5 years. If your are talking about a lower level of AV then I would expect some cool stuff in 5 years.
- Kluny 9y agoI'd be totally satisfied with just an advanced cruise control for highways that gets you within a kilometer of your exit before handing back control.
- esmi 9y agoIn daylight and dry weather. As a CA resident this would allow the AI to take over the vast majority of the miles I drive throughout the year.
- alistairSH 9y agoAgreed. I believe the jump from "fantastic driver's aid" to "fully autonomous" in the consumer auto market will take a decade or more. And even when there are true AVs available, adoption won't come without some pains and legal changes. If my AV runs over a pedestrian, who is at fault? I hope we see AVs available for limited uses in the 5 year time-frame. Possibly limited to restricted areas and designated roadways. Or, maybe faster adoption in the commercial space, as there are potentially huge cost savings for shipping/transport companies.
- saas_co_de 9y agoThey will be there but they won't be autonomous. Not now, probably not ever. They will be remote monitored and remote controllable. Instead of having a driver per car you will have a team in some control center that monitors all the driverless cars and can take over if any get into trouble. Full autonomous is a pipe-dream, but cars are a symbol of freedom in America, and just the idea of giving up control to a computer is enough to put off most people. If people knew that autonomous cars will require giving full remote control to a corporation or government agency the idea would be dead in the water, so this part is kept in the fine print.
- pgodzin 9y agoFor ownership purposes closer to 10-15, but on-demand where the car can decline certain routes it is unconfident in, 5 is definitely reasonable
- mikeash 9y agoThey're out there today in extremely limited numbers. Examples: https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/8/16626224/las-vegas-self-driving-shuttle-crash-accident-first-day https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/8/16626224/las-vegas-self-d... https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/7/16615290/waymo-self-driving-safety-driver-chandler-autonomous https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/7/16615290/waymo-self-drivi...
- roel_v 9y ago"(literally) banking" How?
- w0m 9y agoI see it every day actually; though i'm in a dev-city.
- harrisjt 9y agoDo they work in icy or snow related low visibility conditions? I'm living in Wisconsin so they would have to tick both boxes for me to consider.
- bluGill 9y agoI hope soon - I have better things to do with my commute time than stare at the road.
- mabbo 9y agoWaymo has them launched in Arizona already. So, -1 months?
- randomdata 9y agoMore like they expanded their testing in Arizona. They are not commercially available. And if we are counting test vehicles, they have been rolling around American cities for decades.