Who, considering working their first startup job, can possibly end up in an epistemic state of knowing that their hard work will pay off? How could you reasona

Who, considering working their first startup job, can possibly end up in an epistemic state of knowing that their hard work will pay off? How could you reasonably end up assigning a confidence of more than 50% without it being sheer naked Lake Wobegon effect and overconfidence? If no one can possibly get rid of this uncertainty, it ought to be part of the unbiased review.