I'm surprised that the responses here thusfar are negative. Right now there are certainly more companies being funded by later stage VCs than YC knock-offs, so

I'm surprised that the responses here thusfar are negative. Right now there are certainly more companies being funded by later stage VCs than YC knock-offs, so there's obviously a large enough pool of companies that can make it to that next phase. But can seed groups pick them? I'll just make up some numbers: Let's assume that the seed investment gets diluted down to 2% before an exit, and let's assume a buyout of $5 million. If we pretend that the only costs of running a seed firm are the investments, with seed investments of $15k, that means one successful at that level would cover 13 startups. YC seems to be shooting for successful exits of 1/3 of their startups. If a group emulating could even do a quarter as well as YC hopes, then they'd come out ok (using my pretend numbers).