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BTC isn't an asset, so trying to value it based on previous asset prices seems wrong. That said, I all also keep predicting a major fall, but with institutiona

BTC isn't an asset, so trying to value it based on previous asset prices seems wrong. That said, I all also keep predicting a major fall, but with institutional money looking forward to the CME futures launch, I on the verge of buying in. (Market are excellent at making the largest number of people incorrect, so that probably means we really are on the verge of a crash.)

dawnbreez 9y ago
Strictly speaking, stocks are a piece of paper. What makes the stock market behave as it does is the way people treat the stock. Similarly, the way people treat Bitcoin is as an asset with very, very high liquidity.
- alexanderstears 9y ago
  Stocks are records of ownership of a corporation and they represent a claim on a corporation's assets and earnings.
lucozade 9y ago
> BTC isn't an asset Sure it is. But that's not what makes this analysis a bit silly. The problem is he's comparing Bitcoin to shares on regulated exchanges. And it's not subject to the same constraints as shares on regulated exchanges so it doesn't follow that it will have the dynamics of said shares. He ever points out that it's already priced way beyond what you'd reasonably expect if it was a regulated share. So sure it's likely to fall at some point and maybe it'll crash. But until it's controlled like a regulated asset it's just odd to assume it'll behave like one.
audiometry 9y ago
You point out the key factor now: channels are opening for institutional flows to force their way into crypto currency now. Most ‘casuals’ have no sense for the scale of buying that investor flows create. They are hugely impactful on markets as sophisticated and deep as commodities. In comparison, crypto currencies are a flyspeck. I’m not saying it’s not a bubble because institutional money wants to buy it. But I am saying that having any view on how expensive bitcoin can become based on what it’s done during the time it was mostly enthusiast and ‘the fringe’ were the main buyers is naive. My view is that the largest impediment to institutional money is the horrific custodianship issues of bitcoin. State Actors and Super-Criminals are attacking this constantly to steal your money. That risk is minuscule in regular financial markets (because banking system has lots of protections against it).

dawnbreez 9y ago

Strictly speaking, stocks are a piece of paper. What makes the stock market behave as it does is the way people treat the stock. Similarly, the way people treat Bitcoin is as an asset with very, very high liquidity.

alexanderstears 9y ago
Stocks are records of ownership of a corporation and they represent a claim on a corporation's assets and earnings.

lucozade 9y ago

> BTC isn't an asset Sure it is. But that's not what makes this analysis a bit silly. The problem is he's comparing Bitcoin to shares on regulated exchanges. And it's not subject to the same constraints as shares on regulated exchanges so it doesn't follow that it will have the dynamics of said shares. He ever points out that it's already priced way beyond what you'd reasonably expect if it was a regulated share. So sure it's likely to fall at some point and maybe it'll crash. But until it's controlled like a regulated asset it's just odd to assume it'll behave like one.

audiometry 9y ago

You point out the key factor now: channels are opening for institutional flows to force their way into crypto currency now. Most ‘casuals’ have no sense for the scale of buying that investor flows create. They are hugely impactful on markets as sophisticated and deep as commodities. In comparison, crypto currencies are a flyspeck. I’m not saying it’s not a bubble because institutional money wants to buy it. But I am saying that having any view on how expensive bitcoin can become based on what it’s done during the time it was mostly enthusiast and ‘the fringe’ were the main buyers is naive. My view is that the largest impediment to institutional money is the horrific custodianship issues of bitcoin. State Actors and Super-Criminals are attacking this constantly to steal your money. That risk is minuscule in regular financial markets (because banking system has lots of protections against it).