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After basically 0% net growth in the market for over a year leading up to the election, there has been a 25% boom beginning exactly on the day after Trump won.

After basically 0% net growth in the market for over a year leading up to the election, there has been a 25% boom beginning exactly on the day after Trump won. That is no coincidence. The markets are anticipating Trump's promised massive deregulatory push (already well underway), tax cuts, a more union-hostile Justice Department and NLRB, and other business-friendly changes.

kgwgk 9y ago
The funny thing is that most of those things have not happened yet and the first market reaction on election night was that Trump’s victory was a very bad thing.
- marcoperaza 9y ago
  Markets price in expectations of future events. Yes, there was indeed a panicked frenzy in the futures market. But by the next morning, the consensus clearly emerged that the result was a positive thing for the stock market.
  - kgwgk 9y ago
    I agree, but people forecast the stock market to go up again in the next year due to the tax reform but that was alredy the reason for most of the gains in the last year... And it's not yet a sure thing.
    - deleted 9y ago
      [deleted]
the_gastropod 9y ago
Nice cherry-picking ;-) Look at the market at virtually any larger timeframe, and you'll see that the market is marching along almost exactly as it has over the past ten years. To attribute all gains since Nov 8th to the market's confidence in Donald Trump is completely ridiculous.
dguaraglia 9y ago
Ah yeah, the old "let's take the last year in isolation and ignore the other 7 years of uninterrupted growth before that" approach to economics. Sound methodology.
zuminator 9y ago
There's the question of whether pro short-term profit policies are really business friendly? Is increased likelihood of a banking debacle business friendly? Higher chance of a major ecological disaster? Is nigh surrendering Puerto Rico to the elements good for Puerto Rican businesses? I'll say charitably that the jury is still out but we've been down this road before in the not so distant past.

kgwgk 9y ago

The funny thing is that most of those things have not happened yet and the first market reaction on election night was that Trump’s victory was a very bad thing.

marcoperaza 9y ago
Markets price in expectations of future events. Yes, there was indeed a panicked frenzy in the futures market. But by the next morning, the consensus clearly emerged that the result was a positive thing for the stock market.
- kgwgk 9y ago
  I agree, but people forecast the stock market to go up again in the next year due to the tax reform but that was alredy the reason for most of the gains in the last year... And it's not yet a sure thing.
  - deleted 9y ago
    [deleted]

the_gastropod 9y ago

Nice cherry-picking ;-) Look at the market at virtually any larger timeframe, and you'll see that the market is marching along almost exactly as it has over the past ten years. To attribute all gains since Nov 8th to the market's confidence in Donald Trump is completely ridiculous.

dguaraglia 9y ago

Ah yeah, the old "let's take the last year in isolation and ignore the other 7 years of uninterrupted growth before that" approach to economics. Sound methodology.

zuminator 9y ago

There's the question of whether pro short-term profit policies are really business friendly? Is increased likelihood of a banking debacle business friendly? Higher chance of a major ecological disaster? Is nigh surrendering Puerto Rico to the elements good for Puerto Rican businesses? I'll say charitably that the jury is still out but we've been down this road before in the not so distant past.