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A lot of "fear of missing out" discussion in this thread. Keep in mind that calling market tops is a tricky business. If bitcoin crashes (as it often does after
by eqmvii 9y ago
A lot of "fear of missing out" discussion in this thread. Keep in mind that calling market tops is a tricky business. If bitcoin crashes (as it often does after meteoric rises), it will no longer look smart to have invested at many times/price points.
There's a mania to the current market, but that's not enough information on its own to predict the size or timing of a correction. The cryptocurrency markets can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent, just like normal markets.
- mavdi 9y agoInvest what you can afford to lose. That's what I did, and I'm glad I did it.
- hardwaresofton 9y agoI've struggled with the FOMO myself, mostly because I've watched it so long (or like to tell myself I knew about bitcoin earlier than the average person), but I came to the same realization that I think is critical: Bitcoin is just like other stores of value that fluctuate in price based on some mix of speculation and "actual" value. If you're FOMOing about Bitcoin, why not fear missing out about bluechip stocks? or owning real estate? or futures? or bullion? It is true that creation events for stores of value don't happen just happen every year/decade/century but I wonder why the FOMO around Bitcoin is so acute (for me at least)... it's like a penny stock that I feel like I should have known was going to pop [EDIT] - bouillon -> bullion
- westiseast 9y ago* bullion Just in case anyone thought they’d missed out on the French soup stock bubble ;)
- hardwaresofton 9y agogarci pour la correction en temps opportun! -- just corrected it in the comment I also... don't speak French so my apologies to whoever had to suffer through that
- SilasX 9y agoAnother correction: I think you mean “merci”, not garci.
- hardwaresofton 9y agoThanks for the correction, haha I'm going to stop wrongly spelling french words now.
- westiseast 9y ago* French
- AznHisoka 9y agoMaybe its the dissonance between knowing so much more about it than the average Joe. Yet it is the average Joe that is making a lot of money?
- jcbrand 9y agoPerhaps knowing is secondary to acting?
- baby 9y agowhat's FOMO
- shubhamjain 9y agoI am one of the skeptics who has been dissuading people from buying Bitcoin. At every high, my recommendation is to book profit and exit. Of course, people would call me an idiot for being cynical and short-sighted. But I have zero regret about not buying Bitcoin. I think it's better to invest money with an outlook for how it can grow. Irrespective of future cryptocurrencies and blockchains, Bitcoin has no fundamental justification for its valuation. I don't deny many people would get rich with Bitcoin. Even $10k might be peanuts with respect to future valuation but I rather have my money grow 10-20% / year, than bet on something which is pure speculation.
- fitman88 9y agoWhere does one achieve 10-20% gains outside of speculation or owning a bank?
- westiseast 9y agoRunning a business?
- oneeyedpigeon 9y agoThat involves quite a lot more work than buying bitcoin, though.
- SilasX 9y agoAnd even then you only get that by counting the value of your labor as part of the investment return. If you separated out your implicit hourly wage for working for your business, the rate of return on the capital itself is much lower.
- shubhamjain 9y agoI forgot to mention that I am from India where those kind of returns aren't unusual. Mostly because India is still in the high-growth phase of development.
- 9y ago
- theklub 9y agoIt's also wrong, what are the odds if you bought at 1 or 100 or even 1000 that you'd have held until it got to 10k.
- alexasmyths 9y ago"but that's not enough information on its own to predict the size or timing of a correction" This is not a stock so there is no rational way to price BTC BTC pricing is a total fantasy. It's whatever the guy next to you thinks it's worth. That's it. With all other assets - you get a range of prices built around various predictions of future events (sales, weather, geopolitics) - and knowledge is built into that. You get some 'consensus'. BTC is just a number. 1 Trillion? 1 cent?
- SilasX 9y agoDoesn’t that argument generalize to the problem of valuing USDs or Euros?
- alexasmyths 9y agoPartly. Currency is what we oil the gears of the economy with, it's a tool, not an investment. First - the comparison was made to stocks - which is not valid. Second - yes, valuing currency is much more speculative in nature - and it's generally not considered an 'investment' - it's either speculation - or used to hedge things, or as a financial instrument (i.e. you're doing a lot of business in Euros, buy a lot now to smooth earnings). But even then, it's still possible to make some rationalizations. GBP will not go 100x this year. Neither will it go to zero. BTC cold go to $100K, it could go to $0. Finally - within an economy, the value of the currency is usually a moot issue, because only when things go international does it matter.
- SilasX 9y agoYou still haven't given a reason why "there's no rational way to value BTC" that isn't also applicable to USD. If you believe it's possible to rationally value USD, that would be a proof by contradiction that there's a way to rationally value BTC.
- alexasmyths 9y ago1) 'valuing' a currency is different than valuing other investments. 2) BTC is not being used as a currency, it's being used as an 'investment' and a (very bad) store of value. 'Stores of value' we should definitely be able to value - but currencies are hard to do that with. 3) As far as valuing USD vs BTC - it's difficult to value, but you can do it. Oil futures, Fed Movements, capital controls and flows - it's possible to predict within a range where currencies will go. With BTC, there's nothing to value it with.