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Would BTC prices rise or fall after this hypothetical crash?

gnu8 9y ago
Yes.
brndnmtthws 9y ago
Nobody knows, but if I were to guess I think they'd rise. If you're someone who loves Bitcoin (and it would make sense to think the people buying Bitcoin love it), then it's likely you think of it as a safe haven. I see Bitcoin (and ETH, and others to a lesser degree) as a safe haven. I personally have been selling off stock and moving into BTC, ETH, and others because I think the traditional stock and bond market is grossly overvalued and lacks the utility, censorship resistance, and security of Bitcoin. Nearly 10 years of the Federal Reserve buying up whatever crap people are selling, and building a $4 trillion balance sheet, means the current market prices don't reflect what the market can support.
- aquova 9y ago
  > If you're someone who loves Bitcoin (and it would make sense to think the people buying Bitcoin love it), then it's likely you think of it as a safe haven. The problem with this statement is that many people getting into Bitcoin don't understand the underlying concept behind it, nor do they really care. I've spoken to several people who are treating BTC as a new stock investment, and only care about the steadily increasing value and think they can make a quick buck. If Bitcoin crashes (and I think it'll crash to some degree fairly soon) it won't be the core BTC enthusiasts who will leave, it'll be these opportunists getting frightened and leaving in droves. Now, this may actually be healthy for the long-term state of BTC, but I still think it'll have to happen.
  - brndnmtthws 9y ago
    > The problem with this statement is that many people getting into Bitcoin don't understand the underlying concept behind it A lot of the people proclaiming "Bubble! Stay away!" are in the same category. Or I'd go as far as to say they don't really understand market dynamics, and the fact that the value of anything is only the price someone else is willing to pay for it. And then there's the people who spread anti-Bitcoin FUD because they are either a) mad they missed out or b) threatened by what Bitcoin offers (maybe they're a rent-seeking middleman who would be rendered obsolete).
    - kgwgk 9y ago
      Value and price are different things.
shortoncash 9y ago
Depends on if there is a kind of liquidity crunch. People could be called on to sell BTC to offset problems that arise out of an issue with other markets.
blubb-fish 9y ago
With traditional investments becoming unattractive during a recession - I'd assume this will be favorable to Bitcoin.
increment_i 9y ago
My guess is the price would fall quite a bit, since the value of BTC currently is largely speculative. Like stocks, there would be a frenzy to turn these risky investments into cash ASAP. Stranger stuff has happened though. Maybe the value would hold, and BTC really does become the "new gold".
sdljfslkjfdsj 9y ago
None of us can know since it would require seeing into the future & bitcoin has no historical precedence of trading during a recession. My hunch is it gets absolutely slaughtered. It's a guage of risk seeking appetite IMO & historically when the "turn" occurs the assets folks are holding with the most gains are liquidated the most aggressively because they need to finance the losses. .com stocks in the late 90's got smoked & it's where people had the most gains. housing in 07-09 got smoked & it's where people had the most gains. Safe haven trades even got smoked like low yield & gold because they could be used as a source of funds. Another illustration was Bernie Madoff. He didn't close up shop because he got busted - he turned himself in because he had no money left. People were using him as an ATM during the crisis. He had very nice slow & steady returns that you'd think in a crisis would be great in a portfolio that's getting smashed. Nope. It's a source of funds. People withdrew from him like crazy cause they needed the money & it's only then that he turned himself in.
xutopia 9y ago
I'm of the opinion that BTC will actually increase relative to all other currencies if a market crash occurs. I expect people to see a huge influx of people purchasing BTC when they see the market start its tumble and then we'll see a dip until it stabilizes.

gnu8 9y ago

Yes.

Nobody knows, but if I were to guess I think they'd rise. If you're someone who loves Bitcoin (and it would make sense to think the people buying Bitcoin love it), then it's likely you think of it as a safe haven. I see Bitcoin (and ETH, and others to a lesser degree) as a safe haven. I personally have been selling off stock and moving into BTC, ETH, and others because I think the traditional stock and bond market is grossly overvalued and lacks the utility, censorship resistance, and security of Bitcoin. Nearly 10 years of the Federal Reserve buying up whatever crap people are selling, and building a $4 trillion balance sheet, means the current market prices don't reflect what the market can support.

aquova 9y ago
> If you're someone who loves Bitcoin (and it would make sense to think the people buying Bitcoin love it), then it's likely you think of it as a safe haven. The problem with this statement is that many people getting into Bitcoin don't understand the underlying concept behind it, nor do they really care. I've spoken to several people who are treating BTC as a new stock investment, and only care about the steadily increasing value and think they can make a quick buck. If Bitcoin crashes (and I think it'll crash to some degree fairly soon) it won't be the core BTC enthusiasts who will leave, it'll be these opportunists getting frightened and leaving in droves. Now, this may actually be healthy for the long-term state of BTC, but I still think it'll have to happen.
- brndnmtthws 9y ago
  > The problem with this statement is that many people getting into Bitcoin don't understand the underlying concept behind it A lot of the people proclaiming "Bubble! Stay away!" are in the same category. Or I'd go as far as to say they don't really understand market dynamics, and the fact that the value of anything is only the price someone else is willing to pay for it. And then there's the people who spread anti-Bitcoin FUD because they are either a) mad they missed out or b) threatened by what Bitcoin offers (maybe they're a rent-seeking middleman who would be rendered obsolete).
  - kgwgk 9y ago
    Value and price are different things.

shortoncash 9y ago

Depends on if there is a kind of liquidity crunch. People could be called on to sell BTC to offset problems that arise out of an issue with other markets.

blubb-fish 9y ago

With traditional investments becoming unattractive during a recession - I'd assume this will be favorable to Bitcoin.

increment_i 9y ago

My guess is the price would fall quite a bit, since the value of BTC currently is largely speculative. Like stocks, there would be a frenzy to turn these risky investments into cash ASAP. Stranger stuff has happened though. Maybe the value would hold, and BTC really does become the "new gold".

sdljfslkjfdsj 9y ago

None of us can know since it would require seeing into the future & bitcoin has no historical precedence of trading during a recession. My hunch is it gets absolutely slaughtered. It's a guage of risk seeking appetite IMO & historically when the "turn" occurs the assets folks are holding with the most gains are liquidated the most aggressively because they need to finance the losses. .com stocks in the late 90's got smoked & it's where people had the most gains. housing in 07-09 got smoked & it's where people had the most gains. Safe haven trades even got smoked like low yield & gold because they could be used as a source of funds. Another illustration was Bernie Madoff. He didn't close up shop because he got busted - he turned himself in because he had no money left. People were using him as an ATM during the crisis. He had very nice slow & steady returns that you'd think in a crisis would be great in a portfolio that's getting smashed. Nope. It's a source of funds. People withdrew from him like crazy cause they needed the money & it's only then that he turned himself in.

xutopia 9y ago

I'm of the opinion that BTC will actually increase relative to all other currencies if a market crash occurs. I expect people to see a huge influx of people purchasing BTC when they see the market start its tumble and then we'll see a dip until it stabilizes.