23 ms·

Maybe it's digital gold. Maybe when the price stops rising no one feels any desire to buy it anymore and people are left holding worthless numbers.

charlesdm 9y ago
Yes, maybe it will become digital gold. If it were true digital gold, it would have a similar valuation closer to gold, i.e. $8tn (a 60 fold increase of its current value).
- leereeves 9y ago
  A whole lot of the world's gold is held by governments. For BTC to reach similar valuations, it would need governments to buy it. Why would they?
  - charlesdm 9y ago
    Pension funds will be buying next year. I don't know whether governments will buy Bitcoin, but I wouldn't consider it unlikely that some country decides to use crypto as a replacement to their fiat currency -- either the government of a developed nation does it, or the people just decide that their local money isn't worth the paper it's printed on, and decide to use some sort of cryptocurrency. I know this sounds crazy, and I would've called it a ridiculous notion if someone told me this 5 years ago, but I don't consider it too unlikely anymore. It has grown on me. Due to quantitative easing, money just isn't worth much anymore and asset prices have gone up a lot across the board. Just look at the recent acquisition of a painting by Leonardo da Vinci: $450m. That could not have happened 20 years ago.
    - leereeves 9y ago
      Would a country whose currency isn't worth the paper it's printed on have the infrastructure to use BTC? Would they be able to afford the transaction fees? BTC would really need the support of a developed government, but those governments aren't eager to give up control of their currency.
      - charlesdm 9y ago
        Not saying it will be Bitcoin. It could be Ethereum, or some other crypto with (very) low transaction fees. I don't think Bitcoin is a currency anyway. Building a crypto banking service that can be controlled through a phone (e.g. in Africa) should have tremendous value given the very high inflation in some countries there.
scotty79 9y ago
Like people holding gold in the period when gold does not appreciate are left holding worthless chunks of metal?
- leereeves 9y ago
  Gold doesn't require a worldwide network of specialized computers to continue operating so it will continue to be useful.
  - charlesdm 9y ago
    The internet needs a worldwide network of specialised computers to continue operating. I bet it won't be very useful anymore once we turn those off.
    - leereeves 9y ago
      People use the Internet for a lot more than speculation. What do people use BTC for other than speculation?
      - Chriky 9y ago
        Buying drugs, money laundering, and ransomware
        spdionis 9y ago
        /s?
  - scotty79 9y ago
    Gold only requires worldwide network of traders and physically secure holding places and general sense of security so it can change hands.
    - leereeves 9y ago
      All that's required to to exchange gold is one person that has gold and another person who wants gold and has something the first wants to trade for it.

charlesdm 9y ago

Yes, maybe it will become digital gold. If it were true digital gold, it would have a similar valuation closer to gold, i.e. $8tn (a 60 fold increase of its current value).

leereeves 9y ago
A whole lot of the world's gold is held by governments. For BTC to reach similar valuations, it would need governments to buy it. Why would they?
- charlesdm 9y ago
  Pension funds will be buying next year. I don't know whether governments will buy Bitcoin, but I wouldn't consider it unlikely that some country decides to use crypto as a replacement to their fiat currency -- either the government of a developed nation does it, or the people just decide that their local money isn't worth the paper it's printed on, and decide to use some sort of cryptocurrency. I know this sounds crazy, and I would've called it a ridiculous notion if someone told me this 5 years ago, but I don't consider it too unlikely anymore. It has grown on me. Due to quantitative easing, money just isn't worth much anymore and asset prices have gone up a lot across the board. Just look at the recent acquisition of a painting by Leonardo da Vinci: $450m. That could not have happened 20 years ago.
  - leereeves 9y ago
    Would a country whose currency isn't worth the paper it's printed on have the infrastructure to use BTC? Would they be able to afford the transaction fees? BTC would really need the support of a developed government, but those governments aren't eager to give up control of their currency.
    - charlesdm 9y ago
      Not saying it will be Bitcoin. It could be Ethereum, or some other crypto with (very) low transaction fees. I don't think Bitcoin is a currency anyway. Building a crypto banking service that can be controlled through a phone (e.g. in Africa) should have tremendous value given the very high inflation in some countries there.

scotty79 9y ago

Like people holding gold in the period when gold does not appreciate are left holding worthless chunks of metal?

leereeves 9y ago
Gold doesn't require a worldwide network of specialized computers to continue operating so it will continue to be useful.
- charlesdm 9y ago
  The internet needs a worldwide network of specialised computers to continue operating. I bet it won't be very useful anymore once we turn those off.
  - leereeves 9y ago
    People use the Internet for a lot more than speculation. What do people use BTC for other than speculation?
    - Chriky 9y ago
      Buying drugs, money laundering, and ransomware
      - spdionis 9y ago
        /s?
- scotty79 9y ago
  Gold only requires worldwide network of traders and physically secure holding places and general sense of security so it can change hands.
  - leereeves 9y ago
    All that's required to to exchange gold is one person that has gold and another person who wants gold and has something the first wants to trade for it.