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The idea that you can value bitcoin via P/E, utilizing mining fees as the "E" is incorrect. It's akin to valuing gold through P/E, by utilising the cost of extr
by 0bsidian 9y ago
The idea that you can value bitcoin via P/E, utilizing mining fees as the "E" is incorrect. It's akin to valuing gold through P/E, by utilising the cost of extraction as the "E".
This is obviously wrong because holding gold doesn't entitle the bearer to a portion of those mining costs, same with Bitcoin.
The reality is that gold cannot be objectively valued because it doesn't have an objective value (beyond its industrial use, which accounts for less than 10% of its actual current price).
As a society, we collectively agree that gold is worth something because we agree that it is worth something.
With Bitcoin, we are doing the same. But if we had centuries to consolidate our appreciation of gold, we are compressing price discovery for Bitcoin in just a few years.
Interestingly, Bitcoin offers several improvements over gold (being digital, lightweight, cheap to move, proven limited supply). It also has drawbacks.
Lastly: the author's contention that you can take value away from Bitcoin by just copying its code is misguided. It would be akin to saying that you can replicate Facebook's valuation by copying its codebase. Facebook's value comes from its network. The same happens with Bitcoin, since its fundamental properties (censorship-resistance, security) are functions of network size and node-dispersion.
- Nursie 9y agoYou remember that there were other social networks before facebook dominated everything, right? Network effect now is no guarantor of the future.
- kss238 9y agoThat doesn't mean Facebook is overvalued though. Just because it's value could disappear doesn't mean it has no value.
- Nursie 9y agoIt doesn't mean BTC is overvalued either. But BTC could well prove to be cyrptocurrency's Friends Reunited or Bebo.
- 0bsidian 9y agoI don't think I claimed that anything is a "guarantor of the future". I am simply pointing out that networks are valued with reference to their size, not on whether their code base is unique. Bitcoin and Facebook are two examples of this principle.
- Nursie 9y agoIndeed they are, I'm just pointing out that such can be fleeting. Facebook in particular is a good example of a second or third generation product gaining dominance. I'm not sure "price discovery" is really what we're doing at the moment.
- AznHisoka 9y agoHow about the "E" in non dividend stocks? How does owning 1% of Amazon entitle me to 1% of their earnings?
- 0bsidian 9y agoIt's a good question. The consensus is that P/E is not a good valuation metric for high growth companies. I would rather use comparable multiples, DCF or sum of the parts for this type of exercise. The principle being that you will benefit from stock appreciation rather than dividend payout. e.g.: https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/ignore-pe-ratios-in-stock-investing/ https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/ign... https://seekingalpha.com/article/4035706-p-e-ratio-good-metric-use-growth-stocks https://seekingalpha.com/article/4035706-p-e-ratio-good-metr...
- andy_ppp 9y agoI thought because E is reinvested in a high growth company (Amazon in this case) your potential E is actually multiplied by that reinvestment.
- alex_young 9y ago'E' here is really hypothetical future earnings. Some investors think that Amazon can raise prices and become profitable after creating the walled garden. Right now they only make money renting time on servers.
- Cheapershot 9y agoWhat is the P/E ratio of the dollar? That’s how stupid this article is
- madshiva 9y ago"As a society, we collectively agree that gold is worth something because we agree that it is worth something." No, like you say, gold have industrial use, usage of the product imply the value of the product. Gold are a <b>rare</b> metal, this is where gold worth something...