The usual 7% long term figure for the S&P500 includes crashes and inflation in that number. You don't crash at 30% and then grow back at 7%. You grow at 7% on a

The usual 7% long term figure for the S&P500 includes crashes and inflation in that number. You don't crash at 30% and then grow back at 7%. You grow at 7% on average at all times. The only difference is volatility. If you need to cash out after the 30% crash, you lost a lot of money. Most long term portfolios reposition themselves towards less profitable but less volatile assets towards the end of their expected lifetime. For an example you can look at the Vanguard "target retirement $DATE" indexes.