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I don't think you can compare Bitcoin to stocks, housing, tulips or any other commodity and draw bubble conclusions based on that. I think we're dealing with a

by Kiro 9y ago

I don't think you can compare Bitcoin to stocks, housing, tulips or any other commodity and draw bubble conclusions based on that. I think we're dealing with a whole new area of economic psychology that the world simply hasn't experienced this before. Not saying it won't crash though but I think the reasons will be different than traditional bubbles.

aphextron 9y ago
I tend to agree with this assessment of global markets in general. Things have accelerated to a point that no one has any idea what's going to happen anymore. Past experience is not only misleading, but meaningless now.
- wils1245 9y ago
  A quote from The Four Pillars of Investing: "Of the four key areas of investment knowledge — theory, history, psychology, and investment industry practices — the lack of historical knowledge is the one that causes the most damage. In finance, there is no controversy: the same speculative follies play out with almost clock-like regularity about once a generation." A whole lot of investors have come to believe that history is obsolete, and later regretted it.
  - kgwgk 9y ago
    “The four most expensive words in the English language are 'This time it’s different.'”
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
mancerayder 9y ago
I think one aspect of that newness is how much more intensely international and 24/7 the crypto game is. That makes it both more vast and more terrifying. I don't have numbers to back up my claim; I just know that the cryptos have immense capital invested/speculated into it from all corners of the world (but seemingly mostly the U.S. and Asia?), it runs on a 24/7 operation and the exchanges are pretty internationally dispersed. How does this compare to the NYSE, in terms of trading hours (09:30-16:00 ET), listed securities and overall accessibility? How much more capital can be pumped (and/or coins dumped) given time spans, lack of 'circuit breakers', and so forth? There's something about that aspect that I am sure is making this phenomenon potentially wilder than the Dot Com crash of 2001.
corporateslave3 9y ago
Can BTC even crash by half once it gets so pricey? Are there enough buyers for the sellers?

by Kiro 9y ago

aphextron 9y ago

I tend to agree with this assessment of global markets in general. Things have accelerated to a point that no one has any idea what's going to happen anymore. Past experience is not only misleading, but meaningless now.

wils1245 9y ago
A quote from The Four Pillars of Investing: "Of the four key areas of investment knowledge — theory, history, psychology, and investment industry practices — the lack of historical knowledge is the one that causes the most damage. In finance, there is no controversy: the same speculative follies play out with almost clock-like regularity about once a generation." A whole lot of investors have come to believe that history is obsolete, and later regretted it.
- kgwgk 9y ago
  “The four most expensive words in the English language are 'This time it’s different.'”

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

mancerayder 9y ago

I think one aspect of that newness is how much more intensely international and 24/7 the crypto game is. That makes it both more vast and more terrifying. I don't have numbers to back up my claim; I just know that the cryptos have immense capital invested/speculated into it from all corners of the world (but seemingly mostly the U.S. and Asia?), it runs on a 24/7 operation and the exchanges are pretty internationally dispersed. How does this compare to the NYSE, in terms of trading hours (09:30-16:00 ET), listed securities and overall accessibility? How much more capital can be pumped (and/or coins dumped) given time spans, lack of 'circuit breakers', and so forth? There's something about that aspect that I am sure is making this phenomenon potentially wilder than the Dot Com crash of 2001.

corporateslave3 9y ago

Can BTC even crash by half once it gets so pricey? Are there enough buyers for the sellers?