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> many people are getting quite rich Only if they cash out. You need new investors to be able to cash out. The wise ones smell the crash and are the first ones

> many people are getting quite rich Only if they cash out. You need new investors to be able to cash out. The wise ones smell the crash and are the first ones out. Some make it out just before the crash when the party is still going but the fires are rising. The rest burns. There is no real value in bitcoin (unlike the stock exchange or fiat money where valuable people are trapped in contracts).

3pt14159 9y ago
Eh, the value is being able to buy drugs and exploits and botnets and ransomware unlocks online and move money between countries without delay or paperwork or reversal. If you're a CTO of a major company and you don't have a wallet with at least $1m in BTC in some wallet somewhere then you're risking a major disaster if someone breaks in and locks up your data. But just because there are real uses doesn't mean that I think that the government will allow it to remain legal.
- opportune 9y ago
  Right but there are better cryptos for all of those purposes (Ethereum, Monero). Right now Bitcoin's only killer app is the name recognition and the fact that it's increasing in value, which is tautological and why I think it's bound to decline in importance compared to other crypto.
  - danenania 9y ago
    I think you're underestimating the power of network effects and critical mass. Even when a product (or protocol) has major flaws, it can be an insurmountable obstacle for potential competitors, regardless of how much better they might be otherwise. Bitcoin is going to be extremely difficult to catch on this front unless it has a true meltdown or there's a fundamental shift due to legislation.
    - opportune 9y ago
      That's fair, but while my 19 year old younger brother has heard of Bitcoin and not Ethereum, the same is not true for developers. I think there is some information asymmetry and a discrepancy in the quality of the users between networks - by quality I mean how likely users are to contribute to new software to make it better, the level of what is essentially corruption/bureaucracy in making changes to the platform, etc. Facebook and Snap did well because they were "cooler" than their predecessors, and they had different/more uses. I think that's analogous to where I see the future of crypto
pizza234 9y ago
There's no "wise" people in this type of speculation, only lucky ones. There have been plenty of crashes until now, and those who "smelled it" and sold (I did) lost lots of paper profits. There will be other crashes for sure, and it will be impossible to know if it's the BTC Apocalypse™ or the BTC Yearly Crash™ until late in the process. Unless, of course, one belongs to the BTC-illuminati.
- sjg007 9y ago
  Digital gold accessible by the masses and unseizeable (e.g not under 3rd party control) is appealing..
- icedchai 9y ago
  Yep, I sold about 20 BTC early on, wish I kept it. I still have a good number, though. Either way, it's free money to me, so I try not to be too greedy...
- acjohnson55 9y ago
  Yep. If you get out now, maybe you're a genius, because it crashes tomorrow. Or maybe it goes up to $30k on continued hubris, and you're the dumbass that sold early.
koonsolo 9y ago
What do you mean by "cash out"? Everything that you own can go to zero: cryptocurrency (obviously), fiat money (hyperinflation, see Zimbabmwe now), real estate (see what happened in eastern Europe when the Russians came). I agree that each asset class comes with risk, and that euro and dollar is currently less risky than crypto. But remember that each has its own risk. Fiat money goes down at about 2% each year, if you're in a proper economy. Did you see the quantitative easing that was done on the dollar? Scary. Do you think people in Zimbabwe are "cashing out" to their local currency? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-15/bitcoin-surges-in-zimbabwe-after-military-moves-to-seize-power https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-15/bitcoin-s... Some people are even "cashing out" to expensive real estate I read, not dollars. Don't make the mistake to think euro's or dollars are the unit of value, they are not. Their price goes up and down just like everything else. History was not kind to fiat money (see French revolution for example). Bitcoin is in a position to compete with central banks and commercial banks with fraction reserves. The chance of crypto really getting that far might be low, but it is still there, don't forget about that. Nobody can be certain of the "bitcoin bubble", and nobody can be certain of the "worldwide bitcoin takeover of fiat money". Maybe it will end somewhere in between. It's all chances. You have to play on the risk factors of each, not on "I believe ...". You don't cash out, you properly organize your assets.

3pt14159 9y ago

Eh, the value is being able to buy drugs and exploits and botnets and ransomware unlocks online and move money between countries without delay or paperwork or reversal. If you're a CTO of a major company and you don't have a wallet with at least $1m in BTC in some wallet somewhere then you're risking a major disaster if someone breaks in and locks up your data. But just because there are real uses doesn't mean that I think that the government will allow it to remain legal.

opportune 9y ago
Right but there are better cryptos for all of those purposes (Ethereum, Monero). Right now Bitcoin's only killer app is the name recognition and the fact that it's increasing in value, which is tautological and why I think it's bound to decline in importance compared to other crypto.
- danenania 9y ago
  I think you're underestimating the power of network effects and critical mass. Even when a product (or protocol) has major flaws, it can be an insurmountable obstacle for potential competitors, regardless of how much better they might be otherwise. Bitcoin is going to be extremely difficult to catch on this front unless it has a true meltdown or there's a fundamental shift due to legislation.
  - opportune 9y ago
    That's fair, but while my 19 year old younger brother has heard of Bitcoin and not Ethereum, the same is not true for developers. I think there is some information asymmetry and a discrepancy in the quality of the users between networks - by quality I mean how likely users are to contribute to new software to make it better, the level of what is essentially corruption/bureaucracy in making changes to the platform, etc. Facebook and Snap did well because they were "cooler" than their predecessors, and they had different/more uses. I think that's analogous to where I see the future of crypto

pizza234 9y ago

There's no "wise" people in this type of speculation, only lucky ones. There have been plenty of crashes until now, and those who "smelled it" and sold (I did) lost lots of paper profits. There will be other crashes for sure, and it will be impossible to know if it's the BTC Apocalypse™ or the BTC Yearly Crash™ until late in the process. Unless, of course, one belongs to the BTC-illuminati.

sjg007 9y ago
Digital gold accessible by the masses and unseizeable (e.g not under 3rd party control) is appealing..
icedchai 9y ago
Yep, I sold about 20 BTC early on, wish I kept it. I still have a good number, though. Either way, it's free money to me, so I try not to be too greedy...
acjohnson55 9y ago
Yep. If you get out now, maybe you're a genius, because it crashes tomorrow. Or maybe it goes up to $30k on continued hubris, and you're the dumbass that sold early.

koonsolo 9y ago

What do you mean by "cash out"? Everything that you own can go to zero: cryptocurrency (obviously), fiat money (hyperinflation, see Zimbabmwe now), real estate (see what happened in eastern Europe when the Russians came). I agree that each asset class comes with risk, and that euro and dollar is currently less risky than crypto. But remember that each has its own risk. Fiat money goes down at about 2% each year, if you're in a proper economy. Did you see the quantitative easing that was done on the dollar? Scary. Do you think people in Zimbabwe are "cashing out" to their local currency? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-15/bitcoin-surges-in-zimbabwe-after-military-moves-to-seize-power https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-15/bitcoin-s... Some people are even "cashing out" to expensive real estate I read, not dollars. Don't make the mistake to think euro's or dollars are the unit of value, they are not. Their price goes up and down just like everything else. History was not kind to fiat money (see French revolution for example). Bitcoin is in a position to compete with central banks and commercial banks with fraction reserves. The chance of crypto really getting that far might be low, but it is still there, don't forget about that. Nobody can be certain of the "bitcoin bubble", and nobody can be certain of the "worldwide bitcoin takeover of fiat money". Maybe it will end somewhere in between. It's all chances. You have to play on the risk factors of each, not on "I believe ...". You don't cash out, you properly organize your assets.