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IEA's EV growth projections are just as bad. I believe a couple of years ago they predicted something like 3% of the car market will be EVs - in 2040.
by mtgx 9y ago
IEA's EV growth projections are just as bad. I believe a couple of years ago they predicted something like 3% of the car market will be EVs - in 2040.
- TaylorAlexander 9y agoReminds me of the old IBM quote about the market for computers. It just sounds like a combination of old and entrenched thinking. For the longest time nothing could shake fossil fuels and anyone who believed otherwise was proven wrong. People in the fossil fuel community could succeed while dismissing renewables. But the facts no longer support those old positions, and entrenched organizations will be slow to pick up on it. I’ve never heard of this organization but I hope they’re not driving policy changes anywhere, though they sound like the kind of org that would...
- BLKNSLVR 9y agoIt just sounds like a combination of old and entrenched thinking. My experience of economics modelling (admittedly very limited) is that it can't help but be skewed towards the status quo. The only solid figures they can use are historical, which will only act as an anchor to the predictions of the potential future. Additionally, economic modelling is often used as a risk analysis tool, and 'knowns' (with solid historical numbers and patterns) are always less risky than 'unknowns' with limited information. 'New' always faces an uphill battle on many fronts.
- addicted 9y agoAre there models which factor in an analysis of their past successes/failures and adjust for them?