I do not think it's necessary to speculate on the nature of reason for simulations in terms of the logic. In terms of recreation, it's very interesting though.

I do not think it's necessary to speculate on the nature of reason for simulations in terms of the logic. In terms of recreation, it's very interesting though. And oddly enough, I think it also adds some circumstantial evidence to simulation. We now live at what will likely be one of the most important moments in the history of our species - the internet, becoming an interplanetary civilization, automation (and the probably change to a new economic system it entails), are all happening with our lifetimes. Any of these events would be a monumental once in a civilization type event. To have them happen all at once is just unbelievably fortuitous. Beyond that interesting coincidence, this is also one of the first moments in history that would be able to be compelling reconstructed. Think about the massive data collection happening all the way from private corporations up to the NSA. If that data is not erased, it will serve as a completely untainted and objectively perfect time capsule of all true views, ideals, desires, and so on of our time. I'm not fond of this data collection, but in terms of societal impact - it is hugely beneficial in the very long term. An advanced AI would be capable of creating an incredible replication of a society, perhaps with its emotions somewhat exaggerated, by combing through and simulating this information. Of course that's just one of an infinite number of possibilities, but like I said - I find them interesting and fun to consider. There's a logical slip in your math. It is not more likely that someone else lives in the real universe than you. It's equally improbable. And the more simulated the realities, the less probable of any given civilization existing within the real one. Just picture it as balls in a bag. There are 'n' black balls representing the number of simulated realities one may be within, but just 1 white ball representing the real reality. And like you mention, even if somebody was able to reveal and 'disable' the simulation of their reality -- the same logic holds (that the new unveiled reality is likely also false), unless there is some newfound reason to think it might not.