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Before futures work, you need forwards. There are no bitcoin forwards because the entirety of the current bitcoin ecosystem is built on and around fraud. If we

Before futures work, you need forwards. There are no bitcoin forwards because the entirety of the current bitcoin ecosystem is built on and around fraud. If we are to remove fraud and clearly currently defined as illegal activities from this ecosystem bitcoin and its value will collapse through the floor. In order for forward market to be viable you need to have a stick big enough where pulling out of a forward contract is impossible for anyone without them going to jail and ( not or ) still having to perform under this contract. The really funny part is that the feeding on the suckers ( i.e. retail pansies ) is so profitable and regulators are so pathetic that those who based on their other dealings should not touch BTC with a hundred yard pole (i.e. VCs, exchanges, law firms ) are jumping into it not just with both feet but on all fours. I went to a BTC investors/tech people meet up not long ago. Some of the people were household names in this "community". No one could describe a difference between POS and POW; no one could speculate on internally consistent basis what kind of outcomes would be possible based on the actions of China's central bank. But everyone was very excited about all the conferences they were going to and all the money they were making off the suckers. It really reminded me of months before the dotcom crash.

joeschmoecad 9y ago
lol
tlrobinson 9y ago
“entirety of the current bitcoin ecosystem is built on and around fraud” [citation needed]
mdip 9y ago
I'm a little surprised you're getting downvoted so much, but I suspect it has to do with: > the entirety of the current bitcoin ecosystem is built on and around fraud. If we are to remove fraud and clearly currently defined as illegal activities from this ecosystem bitcoin and its value will collapse through the floor. While I agree with pretty much everything else you've said about BTC being somewhere on the not-so-good end of the "insanity" spectrum, and I've had similar experiences talking to technologists regarding PoS vs. PoW (heck, finding one who could coherently explain either was an exercise in futility). You sound like someone who probably knows the difference and it's also been my experience that those who do, generally believe the state of BTC (with regard to its current price) is overvalued[0]. I disagree that the ecosystem, as a whole, is built around fraud, or that the technology/purpose of BTC is generally for fraud. I look at BTC the same way I look at paper money. The same kinds of fraud can be performed with paper money. The same kinds of problems, such as permanent loss due to failure to secure it, can happen with paper money. The one, major thing, you can't do with paper money (easily, anyway) is buy something online with it. You can do that, in a lot of places, with BTC (and to a lesser extent, other cryptocurrencies). You can buy illegal drugs with cash and BTC but your local drug dealer doesn't take Visa (or maybe they do, now ... I don't buy illegal drugs). I fully subscribe to the belief that we're going to see a large crash happen, probably in the near future. Any time you have something that looks like an investment that's skyrocketing as much as this has and the "investors" can't tell you the first thing about "what" it is they're investing in, that's the pretty much the secret formula for a crash. And I don't think (outside of the large amount of lost money) that a crash would be a bad thing. The fact that the price continues to soar is hampering the ability for the BTC and other cryptocurrencies to be used as anything other than as something to hold onto hoping for it to grow in value as it has for the last year. There's another side to this, though ... I've been saying BTC would/should crash since it was about USD$100 and I've been wrong. I'm willing to accept that I'm wrong here, but unwilling to bet my own money on that chance. [0] Where by "overvalued", I mean, more overvalued than anything in the history of the known world.
- Vadoff 9y ago
  Don't think many drug marketplaces use bitcoin anymore, since bitcoin has a fully public ledger. Private coins such as Monero or Zcash are used now.
JumpCrisscross 9y ago
> Before futures work, you need forwards Forwards are physically settled. Futures are cash settled. They are different products which don’t depend on each other to exist.
- princeb 9y ago
  futures can be also physically settled. the difference between futures and forwards is the pricing - futures price off the risk neutral measure because your margin is marked every day, forwards price off the forward measure because there is only one other cash/asset flow event at expiry.

joeschmoecad 9y ago

lol

tlrobinson 9y ago

“entirety of the current bitcoin ecosystem is built on and around fraud” [citation needed]

mdip 9y ago

I'm a little surprised you're getting downvoted so much, but I suspect it has to do with: > the entirety of the current bitcoin ecosystem is built on and around fraud. If we are to remove fraud and clearly currently defined as illegal activities from this ecosystem bitcoin and its value will collapse through the floor. While I agree with pretty much everything else you've said about BTC being somewhere on the not-so-good end of the "insanity" spectrum, and I've had similar experiences talking to technologists regarding PoS vs. PoW (heck, finding one who could coherently explain either was an exercise in futility). You sound like someone who probably knows the difference and it's also been my experience that those who do, generally believe the state of BTC (with regard to its current price) is overvalued[0]. I disagree that the ecosystem, as a whole, is built around fraud, or that the technology/purpose of BTC is generally for fraud. I look at BTC the same way I look at paper money. The same kinds of fraud can be performed with paper money. The same kinds of problems, such as permanent loss due to failure to secure it, can happen with paper money. The one, major thing, you can't do with paper money (easily, anyway) is buy something online with it. You can do that, in a lot of places, with BTC (and to a lesser extent, other cryptocurrencies). You can buy illegal drugs with cash and BTC but your local drug dealer doesn't take Visa (or maybe they do, now ... I don't buy illegal drugs). I fully subscribe to the belief that we're going to see a large crash happen, probably in the near future. Any time you have something that looks like an investment that's skyrocketing as much as this has and the "investors" can't tell you the first thing about "what" it is they're investing in, that's the pretty much the secret formula for a crash. And I don't think (outside of the large amount of lost money) that a crash would be a bad thing. The fact that the price continues to soar is hampering the ability for the BTC and other cryptocurrencies to be used as anything other than as something to hold onto hoping for it to grow in value as it has for the last year. There's another side to this, though ... I've been saying BTC would/should crash since it was about USD$100 and I've been wrong. I'm willing to accept that I'm wrong here, but unwilling to bet my own money on that chance. [0] Where by "overvalued", I mean, more overvalued than anything in the history of the known world.

Vadoff 9y ago
Don't think many drug marketplaces use bitcoin anymore, since bitcoin has a fully public ledger. Private coins such as Monero or Zcash are used now.

JumpCrisscross 9y ago

> Before futures work, you need forwards Forwards are physically settled. Futures are cash settled. They are different products which don’t depend on each other to exist.

princeb 9y ago
futures can be also physically settled. the difference between futures and forwards is the pricing - futures price off the risk neutral measure because your margin is marked every day, forwards price off the forward measure because there is only one other cash/asset flow event at expiry.