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"People wind up where they are largely through circumstance, not intention. " There may be a lot of randomness on the way to becoming, or almost becoming a doc

"People wind up where they are largely through circumstance, not intention. " There may be a lot of randomness on the way to becoming, or almost becoming a doctor, but you don't get to be a doctor by randomness. See what I mean? You get to be a doctor only with quite a very long term intent and perseverance, by stacking the odds, and rolling the dice a lot. Though I get what you are saying - I also don't think that most people as of yet realize how much actual control they have over themselves and their lives, and they can possibly make it better. That's still a huge hurdle for a lot of people. I suppose those that have jumped that hurdle could often learn a little empathy for those with bad dice :)

Xorlev 9y ago
"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." - Seneca the Younger > You get to be a doctor only with quite a very long term intent and perseverance, by stacking the odds, and rolling the dice a lot. I like that way of putting it.
zxcmx 9y ago
Well if you really want to maximise your odds of becoming a doctor, the best thing you can do for yourself is choose your parents wisely. Don't choose to be born in a slum in a third world country, or a trailer park, thats gonna hurt your chances. Make sure you don't pick a family that will abuse you as you grow up. Try to make sure you at least get average genetics for general intelligence and memory (50% of people won't...). Ideally, choose to have at least one doctor as a parent (increases your odds by more than an order of magnitude). A good mentor or role model at the right time could substitute though. Of course, people _can_ control their own lives, but most people who succeed at becoming doctors were both lucky AND hard working. And I'd be willing to be that though they did work like hell to do it, a lot of doctors "sleepwalked into it" because a teacher at school or a parent told them thats what they should do.
- sheepmullet 9y ago
  > Well if you really want to maximise your odds of becoming a doctor, the best thing you can do for yourself is choose your parents wisely. Like you said we have been blessed by the hard work of those who went before us and in turn we can raise the next generation to be even more prosperous than us.
- alexasmyths 9y ago
  " the best thing you can do for yourself is choose your parents wisely." Maybe. I'd rather have a good worth ethnic than 'rich parents' on the road to becoming a doctor anywhere in the Western world. There are innumerable lazy rich kids and they won't be getting into med school.
  - yostrovs 9y ago
    Amazing how downvotes correlate with the political opinion of the people here. And then you see comments like "I haven't even seen anti net neutrality arguments at all.. Why would the FCC do that?" You choose to close your eyes, you get a seemingly dark world.
smallnamespace 9y ago
> You get to be a doctor only with quite a very long term intent and perseverance, by stacking the odds, and rolling the dice a lot. So what do you think is the value of P(becoming doctor | intent and perseverance)? If it's only 50%, then I'd argue that whether someone succeeds in becoming a doctor or not is indeed quite random. And maybe more relevant, but what are the factors that cause someone to have strong willpower and perseverance, and were those under their own control?
- ewjordan 9y ago
  At some level most traits relevant to success are at least somewhat genetically influenced (intelligence, however measured, is estimated to be over 50% heritable). I'm sure willpower and perseverance are similar, and in that sense being hard working is kinda a roll of the dice, sure. But if we go that far, then almost everything about you is just random chance. Congratulations, we've realized that we're not special, but products of evolution, and some of us are more fit than others in certain environments. What practical difference should that make?
  - taneq 9y ago
    Keep zooming out and we're all little hypertriangles in some N-dimensional cellular automaton, and there's no such thing as 'meaning', just patterns of higher or lower entropy. Don't think too much about it or it'll just make you depressed.
    - eternauta3k 9y ago
      Nihilism isn't the only option. This is a decent starting guide if you're curious: https://meaningness.com/ https://meaningness.com/
      - taneq 9y ago
        Bit of a late reply, sorry, but I didn't mean that nihilism was the answer. I just meant that humans aren't well equipped, emotionally, to deal with the universe at scales too different from those at which we evolved. You just can't afford to 'zoom out' too far. Focus on immediate small scale things, watch a beautiful sunset, hug your kids, ride a motorbike, eat your favourite meal. Focus on near-term goals like "bootstrap my company" or "reach my fitness goals". Worry about little problems that you can solve. Make someone smile. Smell the roses. You can stay intellectually aware of the fact that we're transient pond scum on the surface of a space rock in an infinite, arbitrary universe. Just don't dwell on it.
erikb 9y ago
This is in fact one of the main points of the article. Chinese way of criticism. If you are unable to accept the criticism it is perfectly fine to read it as supportive of your point of view of the world. Actually the article says you need to work your ass off to succeed. Life just sucks because sometimes even with hard work you can't always get all you want.

Xorlev 9y ago

"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." - Seneca the Younger > You get to be a doctor only with quite a very long term intent and perseverance, by stacking the odds, and rolling the dice a lot. I like that way of putting it.

zxcmx 9y ago

Well if you really want to maximise your odds of becoming a doctor, the best thing you can do for yourself is choose your parents wisely. Don't choose to be born in a slum in a third world country, or a trailer park, thats gonna hurt your chances. Make sure you don't pick a family that will abuse you as you grow up. Try to make sure you at least get average genetics for general intelligence and memory (50% of people won't...). Ideally, choose to have at least one doctor as a parent (increases your odds by more than an order of magnitude). A good mentor or role model at the right time could substitute though. Of course, people _can_ control their own lives, but most people who succeed at becoming doctors were both lucky AND hard working. And I'd be willing to be that though they did work like hell to do it, a lot of doctors "sleepwalked into it" because a teacher at school or a parent told them thats what they should do.

sheepmullet 9y ago
> Well if you really want to maximise your odds of becoming a doctor, the best thing you can do for yourself is choose your parents wisely. Like you said we have been blessed by the hard work of those who went before us and in turn we can raise the next generation to be even more prosperous than us.
alexasmyths 9y ago
" the best thing you can do for yourself is choose your parents wisely." Maybe. I'd rather have a good worth ethnic than 'rich parents' on the road to becoming a doctor anywhere in the Western world. There are innumerable lazy rich kids and they won't be getting into med school.
- yostrovs 9y ago
  Amazing how downvotes correlate with the political opinion of the people here. And then you see comments like "I haven't even seen anti net neutrality arguments at all.. Why would the FCC do that?" You choose to close your eyes, you get a seemingly dark world.

smallnamespace 9y ago

> You get to be a doctor only with quite a very long term intent and perseverance, by stacking the odds, and rolling the dice a lot. So what do you think is the value of P(becoming doctor | intent and perseverance)? If it's only 50%, then I'd argue that whether someone succeeds in becoming a doctor or not is indeed quite random. And maybe more relevant, but what are the factors that cause someone to have strong willpower and perseverance, and were those under their own control?

ewjordan 9y ago
At some level most traits relevant to success are at least somewhat genetically influenced (intelligence, however measured, is estimated to be over 50% heritable). I'm sure willpower and perseverance are similar, and in that sense being hard working is kinda a roll of the dice, sure. But if we go that far, then almost everything about you is just random chance. Congratulations, we've realized that we're not special, but products of evolution, and some of us are more fit than others in certain environments. What practical difference should that make?
- taneq 9y ago
  Keep zooming out and we're all little hypertriangles in some N-dimensional cellular automaton, and there's no such thing as 'meaning', just patterns of higher or lower entropy. Don't think too much about it or it'll just make you depressed.
  - eternauta3k 9y ago
    Nihilism isn't the only option. This is a decent starting guide if you're curious: https://meaningness.com/ https://meaningness.com/
    - taneq 9y ago
      Bit of a late reply, sorry, but I didn't mean that nihilism was the answer. I just meant that humans aren't well equipped, emotionally, to deal with the universe at scales too different from those at which we evolved. You just can't afford to 'zoom out' too far. Focus on immediate small scale things, watch a beautiful sunset, hug your kids, ride a motorbike, eat your favourite meal. Focus on near-term goals like "bootstrap my company" or "reach my fitness goals". Worry about little problems that you can solve. Make someone smile. Smell the roses. You can stay intellectually aware of the fact that we're transient pond scum on the surface of a space rock in an infinite, arbitrary universe. Just don't dwell on it.

erikb 9y ago

This is in fact one of the main points of the article. Chinese way of criticism. If you are unable to accept the criticism it is perfectly fine to read it as supportive of your point of view of the world. Actually the article says you need to work your ass off to succeed. Life just sucks because sometimes even with hard work you can't always get all you want.