5 ms·

A Spreadsheet That Could Solve NYC Transit

85 points by ALee 9y ago

trothamel 9y ago
https://nurturenature.org/pages/balanced-transportation-analyzer https://nurturenature.org/pages/balanced-transportation-anal... is the spreadsheet itself. Interesting is that it justifies most of the savings by saving drivers time. I'm a little dubious that's valid, most notably because the costs of mass transit projects tend to occur early ($14 billion of the second avenue subway and east side access in NYC), while the benefits manifest later, if at all.
- audiometry 9y ago
  I’m guessing that this spreadsheet is rife with false accuracy. Modeling and forecasting markets is incredibly difficult. The reason he can get away with it is nothing will ever happen that can prove it wrong.
mkmk 9y ago
How many formula errors does it contain?
ordinaryperson 9y ago
As the article discusses at the end: the MTA is a black hole of money, it's overly optimistic to assume cash generated from congestion pricing would go back into public transit (e.g.: the NYT recently reported how Gov. Cuomo directed the MTA to hand over millions to ski resorts in upstate NY because there hadn't been a lot of snow that year). By comparison London implemented a $15 congestion fee in 2003 and it resulted in a 26% reduction in traffic, which is good but likely not life-changing for most commuters. So if you cynically assume you won't get free transit and congestion pricing is not a panacea for rush hour gridlock, what do you get implementing this? Less CO2 emissions. Fewer pedestrian accidents. But mostly: more money for the city. Aka a tax. Once you accept that, the discussion boils down to your belief in what constitutes a fair taxation scheme: should the users of a service pay per use, or should essential city services be subsidized by the wealthiest citizens? Good arguments for and against. While I'm in favor of congestion pricing in general I think it's important to not be overly optimistic in our assumptions in what it can accomplish. Very cool spreadsheet though.
- mcny 9y ago
  > Once you accept that, the discussion boils down to your belief in what constitutes a fair taxation scheme: should the users of a service pay per use, or should essential city services be subsidized by the wealthiest citizens? Good arguments for and against. Very tangentially related but wanted to hear your opinion on this: I know it is not in my best interest as a poor person but I think there should not be any handouts or subsidies for poor people. We should transform any entitlement program that requires you to show you make $X or under a year and replace them with programs that everyone (regardless of income or wealth) can participate in. I am still a firm believer in a progressive tax regime to fund these programs but we should not divide beneficiaries based on income or wealth. Another thought experiment I sometimes think about is what would change if public transit were fully paid for by taxes? How would things change? Would we see more traffic? How much more traffic would we see? Would we see more people camping out inside the subway stations?
  - ordinaryperson 9y ago
    Depends on your definition of "handouts". Free cash transfers don't seem to be a successful antipoverty program but what about free college tuition? High education levels strongly correlate with above average lifetime incomes but you can't expect poor mothers to feed their children on college degrees. I guarantee you even the most ardent proponent of regressive taxation schemes has some pet govt benefit they consider not a handout but a right. As to the second, it's an interesting idea. Everyone complains about the NYC MTA but for $2.75 you can traverse the entire city -- even with delays it's a steal. People are definitely disconnected from the price vs reward of public transit.
    - mcny 9y ago
      > what about free college tuition I love it! However, if we can afford to make college tuition to people making under $x, I think we can make college tuition free for everyone without checking for their income. (This is my main objection to the New York state scheme. They can make it so only NYS residents are eligible but we should drop the income requirement.)
    - deleted 9y ago
maxhallinan 9y ago
I'm 100% in support of less car traffic in NYC but I think there has to be other reliable options in place before that change is made. Many people are using cars and ride-hailing apps as a remedy to the broken public transportation system. If I was working downtown and had a meeting in the middle of the day uptown on the East Side, taking the train would risk missing the meeting. Taking a car meant I had to leave earlier and pay a lot more money, but also meant I could be sure of actually getting there roughly on time. At least in my circles, the preference is public transportation and cars are used for the times when you're waiting 45 minutes or an hour for a train that never comes, watching the arrival timer continually count down to 0 and reset to 12 minutes.
- ardit33 9y ago
  wait, who does that? If you have to go somewhere, and don't want to take the subway, you usually get a cab. I am assuming normal yellow cabs will not be affected by this charge. I live in Manhattan, and the people that I know that own a car and live here, they fall in the categories: 1. Work outside/far in the burbs, and need the car to go to work. 2. Are rich, and their car is there for the weekends... 3. Have a "commercial license", and can park at places where most normal folks can't. In some areas you can find parking during the day, but in most places where there are businesses (most of downtown, and midtown), it is impossible finding a parking place unless you are paying a lot of money. Much cheaper and less hassle to get a cab
  - thanksgiving 9y ago
    I think everyone (I guess other than emergency services?) should pay the congestion charge and the money should never go back to the general treasury and be directly earmarked for subways and buses only.
  - maxhallinan 9y ago
    In the parent, I meant cab not car. Yes, I usually would take a cab. But if there are no cabs available, which can happen often near Broadway and Canal Street, for example, then it can be easier to use a ride hailing app.
Tempest1981 9y ago
Seems like this begs to have a simplified web interface, where people can adjust some of the top-level parameters, and see the results. Maybe write a tool that reads (a snapshot of) the .xls file, and knows which cells are interesting inputs and outputs, to instrument and monitor. But then you need to "eval" all the formulas... seems tricky. Is there an easier way? Maybe just automate tweaks to a small set of input parameters -- limiting the number of permutations -- and collect the outputs of interest. Then make a simple visualizer of that data. Perhaps even just visualize 5 primary scenarios.
- outsidetheparty 9y ago
  From the article: > At one point, I asked Komanoff is he’d ever considered converting the BTA into some kind of web app to make it accessible to more people. He expressed interest in the idea, but worried he wouldn’t be able to modify the model as easily. Moreover, he values the spreadsheet’s transparency and flexibility, which would be lost in a basic web platform. Of course, a gigantic spreadsheet with 72 worksheets and hundreds of thousands of cells has its own issues of opaqueness. I agree with you, though; I don't know how you'd even begin to tease this thing apart for bugtesting.
deleted 9y ago
[deleted]
cletus 9y ago
I've sad it once and I'll say it again: we need to stop subsidizing cars and drivers as a matter of public policy. In places like NYC we need to go further and punitively tax the ownership and operation of private cars. Every time this issue comes up, someone will pipe up that gas taxes pay for the roads. Bzzzzt, wrong [1]. Want to see how far this could (and IMHO should) go? Take a look at Singapore [2]. While we're at it, let's: - eliminate street parking on the avenues and other major roads (eg 14th, 23rd, 34th, 42nd, 57th, 59th, etc streets) in Manhattan; - eliminate half the street parking in the other streets - stop using the remaining parking as long-term parking. Want long-term parking in Manhattan? Put it in a garage. As for Cuomo, he's a disaster for NYC. Then again, probably every NY Governor is and will be because they're beholden to all the upstate voters who live in SFHs, which also explains why apartment dwellers are taxed punitively by the state (except if you're a billionaire) [3] [4]. Another point worth considering is this: why do we charge anything for using the subway? It unfairly hurts low-income workers. This should be completely covered by NYC income taxes and taxes on car ownership in Manhattan in particular. [1] https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/10/driving-true-costs/412237/?utm_source=atlfb https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/10/driving... [2] https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/ltaweb/en/roads-and-motoring/owning-a-vehicle/costs-of-owning-a-vehicle/tax-structure-for-cars.html https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/ltaweb/en/roads-and-motoring/... [3] http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20170519/BLOGS01/170519866/numbers-reveal-how-bad-nycs-property-taxes-are http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20170519/BLOGS01/170519... [4] https://citylimits.org/2015/06/10/why-effort-to-reform-nyc-property-taxes-has-stalled/ https://citylimits.org/2015/06/10/why-effort-to-reform-nyc-p...
- leetcrew 9y ago
  > Another point worth considering is this: why do we charge anything for using the subway? It unfairly hurts low-income workers. i don't disagree with your larger point about the benefits of incentivising alternative forms of transportation, but im not sure i can agree that it is "unfair" to charge low income workers literally any amount of money to ride the subway. when you look at the operating expenses vs. fare revenue for the subway, its already subsidized by the city and state at something like 50%. the fact that you can ride on the subway for the current price already represents a substantial transfer from wealthier citizens who pay more taxes. i think there is certainly room for debate as to what exactly the price should be, and there may be other compelling reasons why it benefits everyone to make it free; i just find it absurd to argue that making such an expensive service anything other than free is unfair.
outsidetheparty 9y ago
Not to denigrate what is clearly a labor of love and noble intentions (this is, of course, the necessary preamble for a comment in which I'm going to denigrate what is clearly a labor of &c.) -- but the idea of a complex 72-worksheet Excel file put together by someone who has never heard of source control ("Komanoff has more than 2,000 versions saved on a hard drive") is making my left eyelid twitch uncontrollably. I wonder what the unit testing situation is, here...
- keithpeter 9y ago
  Also what the sensitivity of the final result is to each of the variables... seems like they are using a lot of assumed or estimated values for the variables.

85 points by ALee 9y ago

https://nurturenature.org/pages/balanced-transportation-analyzer https://nurturenature.org/pages/balanced-transportation-anal... is the spreadsheet itself. Interesting is that it justifies most of the savings by saving drivers time. I'm a little dubious that's valid, most notably because the costs of mass transit projects tend to occur early ($14 billion of the second avenue subway and east side access in NYC), while the benefits manifest later, if at all.

audiometry 9y ago
I’m guessing that this spreadsheet is rife with false accuracy. Modeling and forecasting markets is incredibly difficult. The reason he can get away with it is nothing will ever happen that can prove it wrong.

mkmk 9y ago

How many formula errors does it contain?

ordinaryperson 9y ago

As the article discusses at the end: the MTA is a black hole of money, it's overly optimistic to assume cash generated from congestion pricing would go back into public transit (e.g.: the NYT recently reported how Gov. Cuomo directed the MTA to hand over millions to ski resorts in upstate NY because there hadn't been a lot of snow that year). By comparison London implemented a $15 congestion fee in 2003 and it resulted in a 26% reduction in traffic, which is good but likely not life-changing for most commuters. So if you cynically assume you won't get free transit and congestion pricing is not a panacea for rush hour gridlock, what do you get implementing this? Less CO2 emissions. Fewer pedestrian accidents. But mostly: more money for the city. Aka a tax. Once you accept that, the discussion boils down to your belief in what constitutes a fair taxation scheme: should the users of a service pay per use, or should essential city services be subsidized by the wealthiest citizens? Good arguments for and against. While I'm in favor of congestion pricing in general I think it's important to not be overly optimistic in our assumptions in what it can accomplish. Very cool spreadsheet though.

mcny 9y ago
> Once you accept that, the discussion boils down to your belief in what constitutes a fair taxation scheme: should the users of a service pay per use, or should essential city services be subsidized by the wealthiest citizens? Good arguments for and against. Very tangentially related but wanted to hear your opinion on this: I know it is not in my best interest as a poor person but I think there should not be any handouts or subsidies for poor people. We should transform any entitlement program that requires you to show you make $X or under a year and replace them with programs that everyone (regardless of income or wealth) can participate in. I am still a firm believer in a progressive tax regime to fund these programs but we should not divide beneficiaries based on income or wealth. Another thought experiment I sometimes think about is what would change if public transit were fully paid for by taxes? How would things change? Would we see more traffic? How much more traffic would we see? Would we see more people camping out inside the subway stations?
- ordinaryperson 9y ago
  Depends on your definition of "handouts". Free cash transfers don't seem to be a successful antipoverty program but what about free college tuition? High education levels strongly correlate with above average lifetime incomes but you can't expect poor mothers to feed their children on college degrees. I guarantee you even the most ardent proponent of regressive taxation schemes has some pet govt benefit they consider not a handout but a right. As to the second, it's an interesting idea. Everyone complains about the NYC MTA but for $2.75 you can traverse the entire city -- even with delays it's a steal. People are definitely disconnected from the price vs reward of public transit.
  - mcny 9y ago
    > what about free college tuition I love it! However, if we can afford to make college tuition to people making under $x, I think we can make college tuition free for everyone without checking for their income. (This is my main objection to the New York state scheme. They can make it so only NYS residents are eligible but we should drop the income requirement.)
  - deleted 9y ago

maxhallinan 9y ago

I'm 100% in support of less car traffic in NYC but I think there has to be other reliable options in place before that change is made. Many people are using cars and ride-hailing apps as a remedy to the broken public transportation system. If I was working downtown and had a meeting in the middle of the day uptown on the East Side, taking the train would risk missing the meeting. Taking a car meant I had to leave earlier and pay a lot more money, but also meant I could be sure of actually getting there roughly on time. At least in my circles, the preference is public transportation and cars are used for the times when you're waiting 45 minutes or an hour for a train that never comes, watching the arrival timer continually count down to 0 and reset to 12 minutes.

ardit33 9y ago
wait, who does that? If you have to go somewhere, and don't want to take the subway, you usually get a cab. I am assuming normal yellow cabs will not be affected by this charge. I live in Manhattan, and the people that I know that own a car and live here, they fall in the categories: 1. Work outside/far in the burbs, and need the car to go to work. 2. Are rich, and their car is there for the weekends... 3. Have a "commercial license", and can park at places where most normal folks can't. In some areas you can find parking during the day, but in most places where there are businesses (most of downtown, and midtown), it is impossible finding a parking place unless you are paying a lot of money. Much cheaper and less hassle to get a cab
- thanksgiving 9y ago
  I think everyone (I guess other than emergency services?) should pay the congestion charge and the money should never go back to the general treasury and be directly earmarked for subways and buses only.
- maxhallinan 9y ago
  In the parent, I meant cab not car. Yes, I usually would take a cab. But if there are no cabs available, which can happen often near Broadway and Canal Street, for example, then it can be easier to use a ride hailing app.

Tempest1981 9y ago

Seems like this begs to have a simplified web interface, where people can adjust some of the top-level parameters, and see the results. Maybe write a tool that reads (a snapshot of) the .xls file, and knows which cells are interesting inputs and outputs, to instrument and monitor. But then you need to "eval" all the formulas... seems tricky. Is there an easier way? Maybe just automate tweaks to a small set of input parameters -- limiting the number of permutations -- and collect the outputs of interest. Then make a simple visualizer of that data. Perhaps even just visualize 5 primary scenarios.

outsidetheparty 9y ago
From the article: > At one point, I asked Komanoff is he’d ever considered converting the BTA into some kind of web app to make it accessible to more people. He expressed interest in the idea, but worried he wouldn’t be able to modify the model as easily. Moreover, he values the spreadsheet’s transparency and flexibility, which would be lost in a basic web platform. Of course, a gigantic spreadsheet with 72 worksheets and hundreds of thousands of cells has its own issues of opaqueness. I agree with you, though; I don't know how you'd even begin to tease this thing apart for bugtesting.

deleted 9y ago

[deleted]

cletus 9y ago

I've sad it once and I'll say it again: we need to stop subsidizing cars and drivers as a matter of public policy. In places like NYC we need to go further and punitively tax the ownership and operation of private cars. Every time this issue comes up, someone will pipe up that gas taxes pay for the roads. Bzzzzt, wrong [1]. Want to see how far this could (and IMHO should) go? Take a look at Singapore [2]. While we're at it, let's: - eliminate street parking on the avenues and other major roads (eg 14th, 23rd, 34th, 42nd, 57th, 59th, etc streets) in Manhattan; - eliminate half the street parking in the other streets - stop using the remaining parking as long-term parking. Want long-term parking in Manhattan? Put it in a garage. As for Cuomo, he's a disaster for NYC. Then again, probably every NY Governor is and will be because they're beholden to all the upstate voters who live in SFHs, which also explains why apartment dwellers are taxed punitively by the state (except if you're a billionaire) [3] [4]. Another point worth considering is this: why do we charge anything for using the subway? It unfairly hurts low-income workers. This should be completely covered by NYC income taxes and taxes on car ownership in Manhattan in particular. [1] https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/10/driving-true-costs/412237/?utm_source=atlfb https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/10/driving... [2] https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/ltaweb/en/roads-and-motoring/owning-a-vehicle/costs-of-owning-a-vehicle/tax-structure-for-cars.html https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/ltaweb/en/roads-and-motoring/... [3] http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20170519/BLOGS01/170519866/numbers-reveal-how-bad-nycs-property-taxes-are http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20170519/BLOGS01/170519... [4] https://citylimits.org/2015/06/10/why-effort-to-reform-nyc-property-taxes-has-stalled/ https://citylimits.org/2015/06/10/why-effort-to-reform-nyc-p...

leetcrew 9y ago
> Another point worth considering is this: why do we charge anything for using the subway? It unfairly hurts low-income workers. i don't disagree with your larger point about the benefits of incentivising alternative forms of transportation, but im not sure i can agree that it is "unfair" to charge low income workers literally any amount of money to ride the subway. when you look at the operating expenses vs. fare revenue for the subway, its already subsidized by the city and state at something like 50%. the fact that you can ride on the subway for the current price already represents a substantial transfer from wealthier citizens who pay more taxes. i think there is certainly room for debate as to what exactly the price should be, and there may be other compelling reasons why it benefits everyone to make it free; i just find it absurd to argue that making such an expensive service anything other than free is unfair.

outsidetheparty 9y ago

Not to denigrate what is clearly a labor of love and noble intentions (this is, of course, the necessary preamble for a comment in which I'm going to denigrate what is clearly a labor of &c.) -- but the idea of a complex 72-worksheet Excel file put together by someone who has never heard of source control ("Komanoff has more than 2,000 versions saved on a hard drive") is making my left eyelid twitch uncontrollably. I wonder what the unit testing situation is, here...

keithpeter 9y ago
Also what the sensitivity of the final result is to each of the variables... seems like they are using a lot of assumed or estimated values for the variables.