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Does it have to be one thing or the other? Like the United States, China is a large and complex country. Pollution is horrible, there is a serious shortage of p

Does it have to be one thing or the other? Like the United States, China is a large and complex country. Pollution is horrible, there is a serious shortage of professional skills, and a looming demographic issue. However, at the same time, growth is strong and the country is still very much a developing economy, which means that there is a lot of low-hanging fruit that can be modernized for economic gains. I don't think it needs to be an issue of China either taking over the world or collapsing. In all likelihood, China will continue to develop along its current track, with China becoming the largest economy sometime in the next 20 years, and presumably the largest military power sometime thereafter. It feels like the real issue is in the US. The United States needs to come to terms with the fact that, for the next generation, it will have a geopolitical and strategic rival of roughly equal strength and influence, and needs to start building a coherent industrial policy to match that reality.

tryingagainbro 9y ago
Pollution is probably a price that a country needs to pay in its early stages of modernization. Militarily, China is checked by Vietnam, South Korea, Japan....and drum roll...INDIA. No large country like India wants a military monster next door, so India will have to get strong. Plus the counties in the South China sea have beef with China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_China_Sea#Territorial_claims https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_China_Sea#Territorial_cl... On the other hand, India might have to deal with Pakistan and South Korea with North Korea. Russia is also not a fan of China, Siberia once was Chinese and it's virtually free of people. https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/03/where-do-borders-need-to-be-redrawn/why-china-will-reclaim-siberia https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/03/where-do-bo...
- freeflight 9y ago
  You make it sound like all these countries are eternal enemies, unlikely to ever cooperate when the future could actually look quite different. Because I don't think it's an accident that the BRISC New Development Bank is located in China, it's also no accident that Putin has been very vocal about removing the US$ as the world reserve currency and establishing a "bipolar world order" to replace current de-facto US hegemony.
  - tryingagainbro 9y ago
    You make it sound like all these countries are eternal enemies, unlikely to ever cooperate when the future could actually look quite different. When your large neighbor in that area, increases military spending every year why do think that is? To fight Belgium? They are ETERNAL neighbors and have eternal (well in our timescale) interests. See what Russia did in Ukraine? The same could happen to Mongolia, happened to Tibet and is happening in the South Sea where China is essentially planting their flag. Trade with them, but ...
    - freeflight 9y ago
      > When your large neighbor in that area, increases military spending every year why do think that is? I wonder how often Canada or Mexico asked themselves that very same question? > They are ETERNAL neighbors and have eternal (well in our timescale) interests. These can still end up aligning, case in point: Not too long ago nobody would have thought it possible for the British and their former colonial settlers to exist in peace. These days they don't only just exist in peace, they are pretty much partners in crime. The same applies to Europe: Nations that formerly despised each other for decades and centuries are now working for their common interests. I don't see why similar couldn't be possible in Asia/Eastern Europe/Africa. > See what Russia did in Ukraine? Protect their interests from an, very obviously, staged "Western coup"? I really hate how that whole Ukraine situation is reduced to this narrative of "Look what Russia did to Ukraine!" like that whole situation just started with the "green men" appearing. The green men had been a reaction, not the action which started events.
      - akoncius 9y ago
        invading sovereign country and annexing part of it IS NOT protecting their interests. Also “obviously staged western coup” IS NOT obvious.
        freeflight 9y ago
        > invading sovereign country and annexing part of it IS NOT protecting their interests. Unless that sovereign country happens to be Iraq and you skip that whole "annexation" part in favor of just leveling the whole place. Why is the US allowed to "protect their interests" on the other side of the world, but if Russia does the same, in a place that's literally their backyard, it's suddenly a crime? Eastern Ukraine was of immense military relevance to Russia, it's where parts of their rockets used to be built, parts of their military hardware [0]. Crimea has been the home to the Black Sea Fleet for centuries, it's the most important port for the Russian marine. Those are all facts people rather ignore in favor of this naive "Russia just goes around annexing countries for no reason whatsoever" narrative. > Also “obviously staged western coup” IS NOT obvious. I guess "Fuck the EU Nuland" handing out cookies was just some emotional gesture with no relevance, same with all those other US/EU officials showing up on Euromaidan and pumping up the crowd. Just like pumping billions of $ in the country and sponsoring "Yats our man" trough NATO/NED and even the DoT [1], feel free to look up the other organizations on that list, there's a certain "theme" to them. It's also not like this has never happened before, it actually has [2] but this time the result did stick, that's why Russia was pressured into acting. [0] https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-military-equipment/25312911.html https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-military-equipment/25... [1] http://openukraine.org/en/about/partners http://openukraine.org/en/about/partners [2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/nov/26/ukraine.usa https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/nov/26/ukraine.usa

tryingagainbro 9y ago

Pollution is probably a price that a country needs to pay in its early stages of modernization. Militarily, China is checked by Vietnam, South Korea, Japan....and drum roll...INDIA. No large country like India wants a military monster next door, so India will have to get strong. Plus the counties in the South China sea have beef with China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_China_Sea#Territorial_claims https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_China_Sea#Territorial_cl... On the other hand, India might have to deal with Pakistan and South Korea with North Korea. Russia is also not a fan of China, Siberia once was Chinese and it's virtually free of people. https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/03/where-do-borders-need-to-be-redrawn/why-china-will-reclaim-siberia https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/03/where-do-bo...

freeflight 9y ago
You make it sound like all these countries are eternal enemies, unlikely to ever cooperate when the future could actually look quite different. Because I don't think it's an accident that the BRISC New Development Bank is located in China, it's also no accident that Putin has been very vocal about removing the US$ as the world reserve currency and establishing a "bipolar world order" to replace current de-facto US hegemony.
- tryingagainbro 9y ago
  You make it sound like all these countries are eternal enemies, unlikely to ever cooperate when the future could actually look quite different. When your large neighbor in that area, increases military spending every year why do think that is? To fight Belgium? They are ETERNAL neighbors and have eternal (well in our timescale) interests. See what Russia did in Ukraine? The same could happen to Mongolia, happened to Tibet and is happening in the South Sea where China is essentially planting their flag. Trade with them, but ...
  - freeflight 9y ago
    > When your large neighbor in that area, increases military spending every year why do think that is? I wonder how often Canada or Mexico asked themselves that very same question? > They are ETERNAL neighbors and have eternal (well in our timescale) interests. These can still end up aligning, case in point: Not too long ago nobody would have thought it possible for the British and their former colonial settlers to exist in peace. These days they don't only just exist in peace, they are pretty much partners in crime. The same applies to Europe: Nations that formerly despised each other for decades and centuries are now working for their common interests. I don't see why similar couldn't be possible in Asia/Eastern Europe/Africa. > See what Russia did in Ukraine? Protect their interests from an, very obviously, staged "Western coup"? I really hate how that whole Ukraine situation is reduced to this narrative of "Look what Russia did to Ukraine!" like that whole situation just started with the "green men" appearing. The green men had been a reaction, not the action which started events.
    - akoncius 9y ago
      invading sovereign country and annexing part of it IS NOT protecting their interests. Also “obviously staged western coup” IS NOT obvious.
      - freeflight 9y ago
        > invading sovereign country and annexing part of it IS NOT protecting their interests. Unless that sovereign country happens to be Iraq and you skip that whole "annexation" part in favor of just leveling the whole place. Why is the US allowed to "protect their interests" on the other side of the world, but if Russia does the same, in a place that's literally their backyard, it's suddenly a crime? Eastern Ukraine was of immense military relevance to Russia, it's where parts of their rockets used to be built, parts of their military hardware [0]. Crimea has been the home to the Black Sea Fleet for centuries, it's the most important port for the Russian marine. Those are all facts people rather ignore in favor of this naive "Russia just goes around annexing countries for no reason whatsoever" narrative. > Also “obviously staged western coup” IS NOT obvious. I guess "Fuck the EU Nuland" handing out cookies was just some emotional gesture with no relevance, same with all those other US/EU officials showing up on Euromaidan and pumping up the crowd. Just like pumping billions of $ in the country and sponsoring "Yats our man" trough NATO/NED and even the DoT [1], feel free to look up the other organizations on that list, there's a certain "theme" to them. It's also not like this has never happened before, it actually has [2] but this time the result did stick, that's why Russia was pressured into acting. [0] https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-military-equipment/25312911.html https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-military-equipment/25... [1] http://openukraine.org/en/about/partners http://openukraine.org/en/about/partners [2] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/nov/26/ukraine.usa https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/nov/26/ukraine.usa