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This country is an enigma to me, I hear conflicting and convincing arguments as to its economic strength and weakness, that it is on the precipice of collapse o

by thrden 9y ago

This country is an enigma to me, I hear conflicting and convincing arguments as to its economic strength and weakness, that it is on the precipice of collapse or overtaking the United States. I tend to believe that they are weaker than they are strong, but this is based in bias rather than sound evidence. The party leadership appears to be tightening their control over the party and the very wealthy. To me this feels like they are preparing for upheaval by eliminating their likely competitors before a catalytic event.

ProAm 9y ago
It's one of the first tenets in The Art of War, which applies fairly directly to business: > Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak. China is very strong, maybe not supremely organized but they are still growing and have been for many years. Especially a country that actively manipulates its currency to reflect its apparent strength or lack of... its anything but unintentional.
- mistermann 9y ago
  They are doing a superb job of giving the impression they have little control over money leaving the country. I'd love to read history books 50 years in the future when they are the undisputed and final ruler of planet earth. Smart communism >>> capitalism.
  - timthelion 9y ago
    > They are doing a superb job of giving the impression they have little control over money leaving the country. Well, the US tries to promote the ability of Americans to engage in foreign investment, because foreign investment is a great way to suck money out of a country. If I buy a countries companies, then all the profit from that country goes to me. It's actually in China's interest to have "money leaving the country". And it is more in China's interest to have no one fight back.
    - mistermann 9y ago
      It depends on where the money is going, and if it is ever coming back. I happen to believe a lot of it is people who covertly working with the government in order to establish significant presence in countries throughout the world, similar to what the US has done, only more economically efficiently. Pure speculation of course, but if they can pull it off... Capitalism and freedom has a giant Achilles heel.
    - ryacko 9y ago
      Yes, but foreign investment in China's case depletes foreign reserves. China is also printing money to maintain the current exchange rate, and this is leading to inflation. Their economy is going to result in recession, or they might go to war instead.
      - mistermann 9y ago
        Inflation isn't a big concern for China, keeping the manufacturing and technological advancement machine running and public satisfaction high is what matters. And keeping the American public uninformed, but their politicians have that well under control. China is way too smart to go to war, they can assume leadership without having to engage in significant conflict as long as they make sure they share the wealth with the proper people. They actually deserve world leadership, I think they've earned it.
jmknoll 9y ago
Does it have to be one thing or the other? Like the United States, China is a large and complex country. Pollution is horrible, there is a serious shortage of professional skills, and a looming demographic issue. However, at the same time, growth is strong and the country is still very much a developing economy, which means that there is a lot of low-hanging fruit that can be modernized for economic gains. I don't think it needs to be an issue of China either taking over the world or collapsing. In all likelihood, China will continue to develop along its current track, with China becoming the largest economy sometime in the next 20 years, and presumably the largest military power sometime thereafter. It feels like the real issue is in the US. The United States needs to come to terms with the fact that, for the next generation, it will have a geopolitical and strategic rival of roughly equal strength and influence, and needs to start building a coherent industrial policy to match that reality.
- tryingagainbro 9y ago
  Pollution is probably a price that a country needs to pay in its early stages of modernization. Militarily, China is checked by Vietnam, South Korea, Japan....and drum roll...INDIA. No large country like India wants a military monster next door, so India will have to get strong. Plus the counties in the South China sea have beef with China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_China_Sea#Territorial_claims https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_China_Sea#Territorial_cl... On the other hand, India might have to deal with Pakistan and South Korea with North Korea. Russia is also not a fan of China, Siberia once was Chinese and it's virtually free of people. https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/03/where-do-borders-need-to-be-redrawn/why-china-will-reclaim-siberia https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/03/where-do-bo...
  - freeflight 9y ago
    You make it sound like all these countries are eternal enemies, unlikely to ever cooperate when the future could actually look quite different. Because I don't think it's an accident that the BRISC New Development Bank is located in China, it's also no accident that Putin has been very vocal about removing the US$ as the world reserve currency and establishing a "bipolar world order" to replace current de-facto US hegemony.
analyst74 9y ago
I wonder how much of that bi-polar reporting is due to Chinese government manipulation, which it does a lot of; and how much of it is due to the feeling that China is the enemy, so it's either weak (contempt) or strong (fear).
cylinder 9y ago
It is very hard to accept this, but economies can be strong in very imperfect countries.
Al-Khwarizmi 9y ago
Funnily, I could say the same about the US seen from outside. On the one hand, rising poverty and inequality, third-world healthcare with people dying because they fell $50 short of their insulin crowdfunding, industry disappearing, cities practically abandoned like Detroit, and a madman president posting unbelievable tweets and advocating absurd policy, make it seem that it's in on the precipice of collapse. On the other hand, you still have the top universities in the world, the best innovative countries, and the most exciting projects with a potential to bring noticeable progress for humanity (Tesla, etc.) making the US seem like a leader that won't be overtaken. Who knows.
- muninn_ 9y ago
  Look I think healthcare insurance in the United States is beyond stupid but calling the healthcare “third-world” is a bit extreme.

by thrden 9y ago

ProAm 9y ago

It's one of the first tenets in The Art of War, which applies fairly directly to business: > Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak. China is very strong, maybe not supremely organized but they are still growing and have been for many years. Especially a country that actively manipulates its currency to reflect its apparent strength or lack of... its anything but unintentional.

mistermann 9y ago
They are doing a superb job of giving the impression they have little control over money leaving the country. I'd love to read history books 50 years in the future when they are the undisputed and final ruler of planet earth. Smart communism >>> capitalism.
- timthelion 9y ago
  > They are doing a superb job of giving the impression they have little control over money leaving the country. Well, the US tries to promote the ability of Americans to engage in foreign investment, because foreign investment is a great way to suck money out of a country. If I buy a countries companies, then all the profit from that country goes to me. It's actually in China's interest to have "money leaving the country". And it is more in China's interest to have no one fight back.
  - mistermann 9y ago
    It depends on where the money is going, and if it is ever coming back. I happen to believe a lot of it is people who covertly working with the government in order to establish significant presence in countries throughout the world, similar to what the US has done, only more economically efficiently. Pure speculation of course, but if they can pull it off... Capitalism and freedom has a giant Achilles heel.
  - ryacko 9y ago
    Yes, but foreign investment in China's case depletes foreign reserves. China is also printing money to maintain the current exchange rate, and this is leading to inflation. Their economy is going to result in recession, or they might go to war instead.
    - mistermann 9y ago
      Inflation isn't a big concern for China, keeping the manufacturing and technological advancement machine running and public satisfaction high is what matters. And keeping the American public uninformed, but their politicians have that well under control. China is way too smart to go to war, they can assume leadership without having to engage in significant conflict as long as they make sure they share the wealth with the proper people. They actually deserve world leadership, I think they've earned it.

jmknoll 9y ago

Does it have to be one thing or the other? Like the United States, China is a large and complex country. Pollution is horrible, there is a serious shortage of professional skills, and a looming demographic issue. However, at the same time, growth is strong and the country is still very much a developing economy, which means that there is a lot of low-hanging fruit that can be modernized for economic gains. I don't think it needs to be an issue of China either taking over the world or collapsing. In all likelihood, China will continue to develop along its current track, with China becoming the largest economy sometime in the next 20 years, and presumably the largest military power sometime thereafter. It feels like the real issue is in the US. The United States needs to come to terms with the fact that, for the next generation, it will have a geopolitical and strategic rival of roughly equal strength and influence, and needs to start building a coherent industrial policy to match that reality.

tryingagainbro 9y ago
Pollution is probably a price that a country needs to pay in its early stages of modernization. Militarily, China is checked by Vietnam, South Korea, Japan....and drum roll...INDIA. No large country like India wants a military monster next door, so India will have to get strong. Plus the counties in the South China sea have beef with China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_China_Sea#Territorial_claims https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_China_Sea#Territorial_cl... On the other hand, India might have to deal with Pakistan and South Korea with North Korea. Russia is also not a fan of China, Siberia once was Chinese and it's virtually free of people. https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/03/where-do-borders-need-to-be-redrawn/why-china-will-reclaim-siberia https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/03/where-do-bo...
- freeflight 9y ago
  You make it sound like all these countries are eternal enemies, unlikely to ever cooperate when the future could actually look quite different. Because I don't think it's an accident that the BRISC New Development Bank is located in China, it's also no accident that Putin has been very vocal about removing the US$ as the world reserve currency and establishing a "bipolar world order" to replace current de-facto US hegemony.

analyst74 9y ago

I wonder how much of that bi-polar reporting is due to Chinese government manipulation, which it does a lot of; and how much of it is due to the feeling that China is the enemy, so it's either weak (contempt) or strong (fear).

cylinder 9y ago

It is very hard to accept this, but economies can be strong in very imperfect countries.

Al-Khwarizmi 9y ago

Funnily, I could say the same about the US seen from outside. On the one hand, rising poverty and inequality, third-world healthcare with people dying because they fell $50 short of their insulin crowdfunding, industry disappearing, cities practically abandoned like Detroit, and a madman president posting unbelievable tweets and advocating absurd policy, make it seem that it's in on the precipice of collapse. On the other hand, you still have the top universities in the world, the best innovative countries, and the most exciting projects with a potential to bring noticeable progress for humanity (Tesla, etc.) making the US seem like a leader that won't be overtaken. Who knows.

muninn_ 9y ago
Look I think healthcare insurance in the United States is beyond stupid but calling the healthcare “third-world” is a bit extreme.