You’re correct. Humans seem to be hard wired to make predictions based on extrapolating recent experience. Vary few (especially not journalists) can use logic a

You’re correct. Humans seem to be hard wired to make predictions based on extrapolating recent experience. Vary few (especially not journalists) can use logic and intelligence to overcome this bias. Studying a little history, applying some simple logic, tells me that - as China’s economy approaches half of USD $57k GDP per capita (real nominal not fantasy PPP) eg Portugal $20k, their growth will slow dramatically - now $8k below Brazil so they can still grow fast, beacuase of easy gains from Catch Up ie leveraging R&D paid for by rich countries. Central planning does have advantage of better infrastructure but disadvantage of Less Experimentation Less Trial & Error, this will be more important for driving Innovation which will be required to sustain growth, once they are past the easy wins of catch-up.