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>All those experts we've "had enough of"[1], All those experts (~90%) predicted a sharp 20% increase in unemployment in the period between the vote and the fin

>All those experts we've "had enough of"[1], All those experts (~90%) predicted a sharp 20% increase in unemployment in the period between the vote and the finalized deal when surveyed by the bank of England just before the vote because of "uncertainty". Unemployment didn't spike a massive 20%. It went DOWN. I'm not even a leaver but seriously... fuck the economists. You're not a smart person if you trust them.

peterclary 9y ago
Worth noting that you’re not counted as unemployed if you’re working as little as 1 hour a week, or if you’re on a government training scheme or on Workfare. Given that many people who work are in poverty it would be more meaningful to track the numbers in poverty.
- crdoconnor 9y ago
  Officially the UK hit the lowest level of unemployment in like 25 years. That's bullshit of course. For the reasons you mentioned. Still didn't go up. Still went down.
- tonyedgecombe 9y ago
  The figures for underemployment are down as well.
Izkata 9y ago
> I'm not even a leaver but seriously... fuck the economists. You're not a smart person if you trust them. My favorite experience when it comes to economists was back in highschool (~15 years ago), when my teacher showed us a recording of two economists arguing with each other (on the news, I think). One was an expert in macroeconomics, the other in microeconomics. They were using the exact same evidence to argue opposite positions.
X86BSD 9y ago
There is a reason the word con is in eCONomics.
- toomanybeersies 9y ago
  Yes, because the word has its root in Ancient Greek οἶκος (oîkos), which means house.
lhopki01 9y ago
It's worth noting that we are still in that period and we've only just started to see the economic slow down effects. Unemployment will lag behind the economic slow down. The full effects of Brexit won't be know properly for a while.
- crdoconnor 9y ago
  >It's worth noting that we are still in that period and we've only just started to see the economic slow down effects We've been in the transitional period for over a year now. The whole period is only supposed to last about 30 months or so. Moreover, as far as I can tell zero of leading indicators (shipping, retail, etc.) indicate that this cataclysmic 20% drop will ever come. We haven't even had a quarter of contraction that can be blamed on Brexit - and we had one of those in 2013! At what point do you stop saying "too soon to tell"?
  - lhopki01 9y ago
    At the point where businesses have to make serious decisions. Currently they're almost all saying they're waiting and seeing. Once they stop waiting and start doing we'll be able to tell.
    - crdoconnor 9y ago
      The "wait and see" approach was exactly what was supposed to precipitate the sudden decline in investment and spike in unemployment. It sort of sounds like you're still trying to argue that the prediction was correct. Are you?
      - standupstandup 9y ago
        A lot of people derive enormous comfort and security from the belief that there's a social class who can predict the future. In the past they were shamans and oracles reading goose entrails, nowadays they're analysts and economists reading Excel entrails. In the Foundation trilogy they were psychohistorians, basically economists on steroids. I think it takes a certain amount of bravery to accept that there are no "experts" when it comes to predicting the future.

peterclary 9y ago

Worth noting that you’re not counted as unemployed if you’re working as little as 1 hour a week, or if you’re on a government training scheme or on Workfare. Given that many people who work are in poverty it would be more meaningful to track the numbers in poverty.

crdoconnor 9y ago
Officially the UK hit the lowest level of unemployment in like 25 years. That's bullshit of course. For the reasons you mentioned. Still didn't go up. Still went down.
tonyedgecombe 9y ago
The figures for underemployment are down as well.

Izkata 9y ago

> I'm not even a leaver but seriously... fuck the economists. You're not a smart person if you trust them. My favorite experience when it comes to economists was back in highschool (~15 years ago), when my teacher showed us a recording of two economists arguing with each other (on the news, I think). One was an expert in macroeconomics, the other in microeconomics. They were using the exact same evidence to argue opposite positions.

X86BSD 9y ago

There is a reason the word con is in eCONomics.

toomanybeersies 9y ago
Yes, because the word has its root in Ancient Greek οἶκος (oîkos), which means house.

lhopki01 9y ago

It's worth noting that we are still in that period and we've only just started to see the economic slow down effects. Unemployment will lag behind the economic slow down. The full effects of Brexit won't be know properly for a while.

crdoconnor 9y ago
>It's worth noting that we are still in that period and we've only just started to see the economic slow down effects We've been in the transitional period for over a year now. The whole period is only supposed to last about 30 months or so. Moreover, as far as I can tell zero of leading indicators (shipping, retail, etc.) indicate that this cataclysmic 20% drop will ever come. We haven't even had a quarter of contraction that can be blamed on Brexit - and we had one of those in 2013! At what point do you stop saying "too soon to tell"?
- lhopki01 9y ago
  At the point where businesses have to make serious decisions. Currently they're almost all saying they're waiting and seeing. Once they stop waiting and start doing we'll be able to tell.
  - crdoconnor 9y ago
    The "wait and see" approach was exactly what was supposed to precipitate the sudden decline in investment and spike in unemployment. It sort of sounds like you're still trying to argue that the prediction was correct. Are you?
    - standupstandup 9y ago
      A lot of people derive enormous comfort and security from the belief that there's a social class who can predict the future. In the past they were shamans and oracles reading goose entrails, nowadays they're analysts and economists reading Excel entrails. In the Foundation trilogy they were psychohistorians, basically economists on steroids. I think it takes a certain amount of bravery to accept that there are no "experts" when it comes to predicting the future.