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I keep reading that AI is going to eliminate all the jobs. Yet unemployment is at record lows and wages are rising across the board. Could it be possible that

I keep reading that AI is going to eliminate all the jobs. Yet unemployment is at record lows and wages are rising across the board. Could it be possible that AI will instead free people to work on new jobs in new industries? Amazing! It’s almost like this time is not any different from any other time.

ffhhfyy55 9y ago
Yeah all those retail and manufacturing workers can jump right into coding and medicine no problem when robots take over It’s just that easy!
bpicolo 9y ago
There are other factors though, e.g. underemployment.
bantunes 9y ago
It's the first time we're automating legal casework and medical diagnostic work. Rest assured: it is different.
ceejayoz 9y ago
The last massive shift like this led to multiple world wars. Let's not pretend there aren't legitimate concerns about the impact of AI on society - unemployment numbers are only one part of the story.
throwawayjava 9y ago
There was a long lag between the time when companies invested in hardware and the time when worker productivity started really picking up. And a lot of the job reduction didn't happen in firings, it happened in not replacing retirements. Unemployment lags behind productivity increases. Productivity increases lag behind tech adoption. Tech adoption lags behind innovation. innovation lags behind technology maturation. technology maturation lags behind science. A lot of the transformation automation is in the "science/maturation" or the "innovation" phases.
Density 9y ago
Overwhelming number of jobs created in the last decade are very low quality gig economy jobs. People work, but they're severely underemployed.
- humanrebar 9y ago
  > ...very low quality gig economy jobs... Gig jobs are fine if people can provide their own emergency fund and pay out of pocket for their own benefits. That is, the difference between "gig job" and a "successful sole proprietorship" is how much money one makes.
erikpukinskis 9y ago
Instagram/Square/Yelp/etc are freeing white collar workers to quit their jobs and start new businesses. The businesses add jobs directly, and the quitting creates a vacuum that causes increased job supply at their old wage and below. AI will accelerate this massively, much faster than automation can take jobs away. Long term it will lead to a crash in the highest paying jobs, as the market is flooded with workers who have management and tactical experience. Rather than a big spread between $10k-$1m, we’ll see a huge cluster of workers around $100k.

ffhhfyy55 9y ago

Yeah all those retail and manufacturing workers can jump right into coding and medicine no problem when robots take over It’s just that easy!

bpicolo 9y ago

There are other factors though, e.g. underemployment.

bantunes 9y ago

It's the first time we're automating legal casework and medical diagnostic work. Rest assured: it is different.

ceejayoz 9y ago

The last massive shift like this led to multiple world wars. Let's not pretend there aren't legitimate concerns about the impact of AI on society - unemployment numbers are only one part of the story.

throwawayjava 9y ago

There was a long lag between the time when companies invested in hardware and the time when worker productivity started really picking up. And a lot of the job reduction didn't happen in firings, it happened in not replacing retirements. Unemployment lags behind productivity increases. Productivity increases lag behind tech adoption. Tech adoption lags behind innovation. innovation lags behind technology maturation. technology maturation lags behind science. A lot of the transformation automation is in the "science/maturation" or the "innovation" phases.

Density 9y ago

Overwhelming number of jobs created in the last decade are very low quality gig economy jobs. People work, but they're severely underemployed.

humanrebar 9y ago
> ...very low quality gig economy jobs... Gig jobs are fine if people can provide their own emergency fund and pay out of pocket for their own benefits. That is, the difference between "gig job" and a "successful sole proprietorship" is how much money one makes.

erikpukinskis 9y ago

Instagram/Square/Yelp/etc are freeing white collar workers to quit their jobs and start new businesses. The businesses add jobs directly, and the quitting creates a vacuum that causes increased job supply at their old wage and below. AI will accelerate this massively, much faster than automation can take jobs away. Long term it will lead to a crash in the highest paying jobs, as the market is flooded with workers who have management and tactical experience. Rather than a big spread between $10k-$1m, we’ll see a huge cluster of workers around $100k.