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This comment (not by me; the poster name isn't even visible anymore): > Illegal border crossings on the southern border are down 78% and blue collar wages are

This comment (not by me; the poster name isn't even visible anymore): > Illegal border crossings on the southern border are down 78% and blue collar wages are rising. Of course correlation does not equal causation, but when there are fewer available workers to hire/train and demand remains constant, wages tend to rise. was marked dead. Why? Is the illegal crossing number wrong/fake news?

ben_jones 9y ago
Whatever the crossing number is I don't believe it. There is too much incentive for the number to be artificially higher or lower. Politicians in border states want it low. Border patrol want it low. Feds want to show marked "improvement".
stemc43 9y ago
illegals dont have SSNs. EMployers have to run ssn verification before they hire you. These checks are instant and this will popup immediately. Can they still hire you - well maybe for janitorial -> manufacturing jobs I'd say highly unlikely.
- smallnamespace 9y ago
  This is definitely not the case. E-Verify has existed for a long time, but is still not mandatory [1]. Employers are supposed to have employees fill out an I-9 form that verifies employment eligibility, but the penalties for noncompliance are at most $1,100 per form -- basically slap on the wrist territory [2]. The irony here is that the anti-immigration wing of the Republican party is now in open conflict with the business wing of the party, which benefits heavily from hiring ineligible workers for low wages. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-Verify#Operations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-Verify#Operations [2] https://www.thebalance.com/i-9-form-employment-eligibility-verification-form-1918902 https://www.thebalance.com/i-9-form-employment-eligibility-v...
  - ryanmarsh 9y ago
    I've never used E-verify. I just use people's I-9. Everyone I've ever hired was born in the US so I never thought about this.
  - stemc43 9y ago
    like literally every job Ive ever applied they've everify on me. im illegal in the past - I know how it works.
- djrogers 9y ago
  That comment is naive at best - do you really think that the majority of undocumented immigrants in the US can't find jobs? Why else would they be here, and why would their numbers dwindle during times of high unemployment? If you really doubt that illegals can work in manufacturing, try googling for 'immigration bust factory', or similar stories.
  - stemc43 9y ago
    nah - depends. some can - some cant. I've seen it both ways. I was able to get a job even when my everify checks came back as ineligible.
- gthtjtkt 9y ago
  Yup, kinda like how the Speed Limit on the highway is 65 so nobody ever goes faster than that. Oh wait...
- sharemywin 9y ago
  you don't think they fake documents?
- crankylinuxuser 9y ago
  That's easy enough. You're right - you do need a valid name/SSN/birthdate. It doesn't have to be yours. And if a company wants to be disreputable, all they need to do is keep running them until they hit jackpot. Because then they can claim that the other people were, uhhh, fraudulent. And this person passed their Everify. It's not like there's any proof that the Everify was run 10 times prior, to find a good name/ssn/DoB.
TheAdamAndChe 9y ago
It's probably an overzealous enforcement of the Hacker News Guidelines[1], probably the portion that says "Don't introduce flamewar topics unless you have something genuinely new to say." With that said, I do feel like it is incredibly relevant to this post. From what I could tell, it's at least not a grossly inaccurate claim[2] and could partially explain the increase in lower class wages. edit: to those downvoting me, can you please explain why? What did I say that was inaccurate? [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html [2] http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2017/apr/25/donald-trump/illegal-immigration-lowest-17-years-trump-said/ http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2017/apr/...
runeks 9y ago
> Is the illegal crossing number wrong/fake news? Given that they’re illegal, how could we ever know if the number is down or if they just found some other way to cross the border? Also, it would be quite foolish to think there is only a single factor affecting wages. There are a multitude of factors, and a reduction in the number of illegal immigrants might be one of them, although it’s hard to be sure.
- throwawayjava 9y ago
  The explanation also doesn't fit the data. Wages have been surging the past few years, not just this year.
  - sharemywin 9y ago
    In June 2017 they were still talking about a wageless recovery: http://www.thehour.com/business/article/Wageless-U-S-recovery-continues-in-June-11273467.php http://www.thehour.com/business/article/Wageless-U-S-recover...
    - throwawayjava 9y ago
      Across the entire economy, not blue collar. If you want to compare apples to apples, the data is running right there is the article we are already discussing, no motivated googling necessary :) Also, talk and data are different things.
- bsder 9y ago
  > Given that they’re illegal, how could we ever know if the number is down or if they just found some other way to cross the border? There are surrogate measures that we can use. Traffic numbers are a good one in Southern California. When there are crackdowns/bad economy, the traffic decreases markedly. Gasoline sales drop. Those are hard numbers that the state collects. Money transfer services have to report. Those numbers are recorded. Just because someone is illegal does not mean they have no impact. This cuts both directions: positive and negative.
crankylinuxuser 9y ago
Well I have something to share precisely about that. Was in 2001 prior to 9/11 in south Indiana. I applied to a factory. And another one. And another one. Nothing. No bites. I then found work at a gas station Subway across the first factory. Our primary business were the factories. 9/11 happened. Within days, the factories shut down. We at subway were like "WTF happened?" Cause we were staffed like normal for rush. Then we talked to one of the workers who stayed - there was a huge implicit threat that INS was going to make nationwide sweeps deporting all illegals. So, they left ahead of time. And "gee golly" the factories were now hiring and one said they had better wages. Again, its correlation kind of.. Well not really. Supply and demand is a pretty hard rule. And when you have undocumented, working for less than minimum wage, and foregoing regulations on employees, is anyone surprised? I know I understood the blue collar hatred of illegals. I've been on the receiving end of that. Not that its right, mind you- but understanding others viewpoints is the start of fixing them. (Fixed spacing, from making comment on phone.)
- sliverstorm 9y ago
  I thought blue collar often referred to e.g. welding, plumbing, electrician, etc. Would an undocumented illegal really be hired as a TIG welder? Or are those jobs just a small part of "blue collar".
  - crankylinuxuser 9y ago
    What you're talking of is skilled and state certified blue collar. Many in this area have legal government protections to do this work. There's a whole class of blue collar under that. Line workers, food prep, factory pickers, non-medical health aide, framers, concrete pourers, roofers... I know when my parents had their current house built, they had a bunch of hispanic people working on the house. When my parents went to take pictures, they beat feet to get out of any photo. My moms pretty sure they said something about INS. But who knows. My parent's didn't care too much that likely "illegal to work peoples" were building their house. It was cheaper than the other options.
- golergka 9y ago
  > I know I understood the blue collar hatred of illegals. ... Not that its right, mind you Honest question: why not? I have a lot of members of extended family who have gone through a LOT of pain to become legal immigrants in the US, and they hate the illegals exactly because illegals have broken the rules that they have payed so hard to follow. If an agent A sacrifices it's profits to follow the rules and agent B just violates them, why shouldn't A hate B? (You can imagine A and B being the company who sacrifices profits to follow environment regulation and another company who just forges emission tests, for example).
golemiprague 9y ago
So maybe the stupid deplorables were not that stupid and were actually acting in their own interest which is only fare. The pressure on wages and work places from the illegal immigration was huge and detrimental for the American working class. The people in coasts didn't care while parading some kind of moral superiority. Turned out Trump was right on the point.
tootie 9y ago
I think the 78% number is dubious, but I've seen numbers in that range. It's based on apprehensions which is a proxy for estimating crossings. It's also been going down steadily for many years and hasn't taken any sharp turn recently. Border crossings also don't reflect total migration via all pathways. I'd imagine the direct correlation is the ratio of US wages to Mexican wages. US wages have been poor for so long, migrants see less benefit. Migration might go on the upswing as wages rise and jobs are harder to fill.
dang 9y ago
Just so it's clear, moderators don't police threads that way; our concern is that people follow the site guidelines. That comment was killed by software because the commenter was banned (more or less; it's a bit complicated) for having abused HN in the past.

ben_jones 9y ago

Whatever the crossing number is I don't believe it. There is too much incentive for the number to be artificially higher or lower. Politicians in border states want it low. Border patrol want it low. Feds want to show marked "improvement".

stemc43 9y ago

illegals dont have SSNs. EMployers have to run ssn verification before they hire you. These checks are instant and this will popup immediately. Can they still hire you - well maybe for janitorial -> manufacturing jobs I'd say highly unlikely.

smallnamespace 9y ago
This is definitely not the case. E-Verify has existed for a long time, but is still not mandatory [1]. Employers are supposed to have employees fill out an I-9 form that verifies employment eligibility, but the penalties for noncompliance are at most $1,100 per form -- basically slap on the wrist territory [2]. The irony here is that the anti-immigration wing of the Republican party is now in open conflict with the business wing of the party, which benefits heavily from hiring ineligible workers for low wages. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-Verify#Operations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-Verify#Operations [2] https://www.thebalance.com/i-9-form-employment-eligibility-verification-form-1918902 https://www.thebalance.com/i-9-form-employment-eligibility-v...
- ryanmarsh 9y ago
  I've never used E-verify. I just use people's I-9. Everyone I've ever hired was born in the US so I never thought about this.
- stemc43 9y ago
  like literally every job Ive ever applied they've everify on me. im illegal in the past - I know how it works.
djrogers 9y ago
That comment is naive at best - do you really think that the majority of undocumented immigrants in the US can't find jobs? Why else would they be here, and why would their numbers dwindle during times of high unemployment? If you really doubt that illegals can work in manufacturing, try googling for 'immigration bust factory', or similar stories.
- stemc43 9y ago
  nah - depends. some can - some cant. I've seen it both ways. I was able to get a job even when my everify checks came back as ineligible.
gthtjtkt 9y ago
Yup, kinda like how the Speed Limit on the highway is 65 so nobody ever goes faster than that. Oh wait...
sharemywin 9y ago
you don't think they fake documents?
crankylinuxuser 9y ago
That's easy enough. You're right - you do need a valid name/SSN/birthdate. It doesn't have to be yours. And if a company wants to be disreputable, all they need to do is keep running them until they hit jackpot. Because then they can claim that the other people were, uhhh, fraudulent. And this person passed their Everify. It's not like there's any proof that the Everify was run 10 times prior, to find a good name/ssn/DoB.

TheAdamAndChe 9y ago

It's probably an overzealous enforcement of the Hacker News Guidelines[1], probably the portion that says "Don't introduce flamewar topics unless you have something genuinely new to say." With that said, I do feel like it is incredibly relevant to this post. From what I could tell, it's at least not a grossly inaccurate claim[2] and could partially explain the increase in lower class wages. edit: to those downvoting me, can you please explain why? What did I say that was inaccurate? [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html [2] http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2017/apr/25/donald-trump/illegal-immigration-lowest-17-years-trump-said/ http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2017/apr/...

runeks 9y ago

> Is the illegal crossing number wrong/fake news? Given that they’re illegal, how could we ever know if the number is down or if they just found some other way to cross the border? Also, it would be quite foolish to think there is only a single factor affecting wages. There are a multitude of factors, and a reduction in the number of illegal immigrants might be one of them, although it’s hard to be sure.

throwawayjava 9y ago
The explanation also doesn't fit the data. Wages have been surging the past few years, not just this year.
- sharemywin 9y ago
  In June 2017 they were still talking about a wageless recovery: http://www.thehour.com/business/article/Wageless-U-S-recovery-continues-in-June-11273467.php http://www.thehour.com/business/article/Wageless-U-S-recover...
  - throwawayjava 9y ago
    Across the entire economy, not blue collar. If you want to compare apples to apples, the data is running right there is the article we are already discussing, no motivated googling necessary :) Also, talk and data are different things.
bsder 9y ago
> Given that they’re illegal, how could we ever know if the number is down or if they just found some other way to cross the border? There are surrogate measures that we can use. Traffic numbers are a good one in Southern California. When there are crackdowns/bad economy, the traffic decreases markedly. Gasoline sales drop. Those are hard numbers that the state collects. Money transfer services have to report. Those numbers are recorded. Just because someone is illegal does not mean they have no impact. This cuts both directions: positive and negative.

crankylinuxuser 9y ago

Well I have something to share precisely about that. Was in 2001 prior to 9/11 in south Indiana. I applied to a factory. And another one. And another one. Nothing. No bites. I then found work at a gas station Subway across the first factory. Our primary business were the factories. 9/11 happened. Within days, the factories shut down. We at subway were like "WTF happened?" Cause we were staffed like normal for rush. Then we talked to one of the workers who stayed - there was a huge implicit threat that INS was going to make nationwide sweeps deporting all illegals. So, they left ahead of time. And "gee golly" the factories were now hiring and one said they had better wages. Again, its correlation kind of.. Well not really. Supply and demand is a pretty hard rule. And when you have undocumented, working for less than minimum wage, and foregoing regulations on employees, is anyone surprised? I know I understood the blue collar hatred of illegals. I've been on the receiving end of that. Not that its right, mind you- but understanding others viewpoints is the start of fixing them. (Fixed spacing, from making comment on phone.)

sliverstorm 9y ago
I thought blue collar often referred to e.g. welding, plumbing, electrician, etc. Would an undocumented illegal really be hired as a TIG welder? Or are those jobs just a small part of "blue collar".
- crankylinuxuser 9y ago
  What you're talking of is skilled and state certified blue collar. Many in this area have legal government protections to do this work. There's a whole class of blue collar under that. Line workers, food prep, factory pickers, non-medical health aide, framers, concrete pourers, roofers... I know when my parents had their current house built, they had a bunch of hispanic people working on the house. When my parents went to take pictures, they beat feet to get out of any photo. My moms pretty sure they said something about INS. But who knows. My parent's didn't care too much that likely "illegal to work peoples" were building their house. It was cheaper than the other options.
golergka 9y ago
> I know I understood the blue collar hatred of illegals. ... Not that its right, mind you Honest question: why not? I have a lot of members of extended family who have gone through a LOT of pain to become legal immigrants in the US, and they hate the illegals exactly because illegals have broken the rules that they have payed so hard to follow. If an agent A sacrifices it's profits to follow the rules and agent B just violates them, why shouldn't A hate B? (You can imagine A and B being the company who sacrifices profits to follow environment regulation and another company who just forges emission tests, for example).

golemiprague 9y ago

So maybe the stupid deplorables were not that stupid and were actually acting in their own interest which is only fare. The pressure on wages and work places from the illegal immigration was huge and detrimental for the American working class. The people in coasts didn't care while parading some kind of moral superiority. Turned out Trump was right on the point.

tootie 9y ago

I think the 78% number is dubious, but I've seen numbers in that range. It's based on apprehensions which is a proxy for estimating crossings. It's also been going down steadily for many years and hasn't taken any sharp turn recently. Border crossings also don't reflect total migration via all pathways. I'd imagine the direct correlation is the ratio of US wages to Mexican wages. US wages have been poor for so long, migrants see less benefit. Migration might go on the upswing as wages rise and jobs are harder to fill.

dang 9y ago

Just so it's clear, moderators don't police threads that way; our concern is that people follow the site guidelines. That comment was killed by software because the commenter was banned (more or less; it's a bit complicated) for having abused HN in the past.