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Will someone be able to exploit this for profit? I haven't enough macro-economy knowledge to evaluate this, but looks likely. Sadly, i haven't seen yet any arti
by drtse4 16y ago
Will someone be able to exploit this for profit?
I haven't enough macro-economy knowledge to evaluate this, but looks likely.
Sadly, i haven't seen yet any article on future scenarios in case of a global crisis caused by multiple nations going to default... any interesting link about this will be highly appreciated.
- arethuza 16y agoCredit Default Swaps could be purchased on the relevant sovereign debt. Given the success that various hedge funds had with this strategy during the crash of mortgage backed CDOs a couple of years back I would have thought that there must be a lot of speculation of this kind going on. Assuming that there are still sellers of CDSs out there...
- carsongross 16y agoAnd remember: timing is everything. Japan has been obviously fked for a long, long time now, but hasn't paid much of a price for it in the bond market. Now that they are going to have to finance their debt externally, maybe reality will assert itself. But maybe not. Cheers, Carson
- d2viant 16y agoYou're exactly right, many people have lost a lot of money trying to bet against the Japanese debt situation. "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." -Keynes
- d2viant 16y agoCDSs are being sold, but generally aren't available to small retail investors. An investor who is not accredited would need to hedge some other way.
- muhfuhkuh 16y agoGeorge Soros seems to do really well in shorting dollars, yen, and euro in the last 3 years or so. Timing is key there, though, so if you can't you shouldn't. He's lately had his chips all-in on Asia, particularly stock exchanges in India and buying up yuan and sgd. Of course, because of these times of uncertainty, he's also long on gold bullion.